Global Security Concerns - Project Gutenberg Consortia Center

PREFACE
One of the most important and intellectually fascinating areas of investigation for the
student of political affairs concerns the attempt to understand why man makes war. This
ancient field of inquiry may be addressed at such various levels as the philosophical and
psychological or the institutional and structural contexts of human behavior. For
example, did the recent wars in Somalia, Rwanda, and Haiti result from clashing
ideologies, tribalism, poverty and class warfare, the cold war, or distant ramifications of
colonial history, or, as has been postulated, the trees of these countries having been cut
down? These plausible sources of conflict offer insight into various dimensions of
explanations for wars; however, the analysts in this volume focus on just one aspect of
the inquiry. They were charged with the task of anticipating which specific contentious
issues likely will propel large, organized political units to choose violent means of
acquiring their sociopolitical objectives rather than attaining them peacefully. The units
on which we focus have been traditionally identified as states, but we recognize that a
host of new sub- and suprastate actors also will play major roles in such wars; hence, we
also will allude to them.
The specific issues identified in the text are by no means completely new sources of
contention. Indeed, we may easily argue that throughout history men have fought over
the same objects and values-only the weapons, strategies, and tactics in their acquisition
have changed. We concentrate on those issues that we believe will be prominent sources
of contention at the dawn of the twenty-first century. We knowingly omitted some of the
most pervasive and such well-articulated causes of wars as power-balancing initiatives or
the quest for such natural resources as oil or strategic minerals. These causes no doubt
will prevail as sources of violent conflict, but they will not likely assume new forms as
will those issues which ' comprise our chapter topics.
Nor do we rank in order of importance a list of issues likely to lead to wars. We
make no assumptions about the feasibility of such rankings as too many undetermined
variables would enter into such an equation. We do offer a brief background on each
topic; we attempt to assess the magnitude of them; we speculate on who the antagonists
may be; and we attempt to project the disruptive potential of each topic under
consideration and speculate on how it might impact the interests of the United States.
We also are sensitive to assumptions that the potential disputes we portray must lead
to war. In our analyses we offer balance by exploring the prospect that our contentious
issues also may be resolved peacefully. Currently, numerous avail- able and prominent
analyses caution us not to be overly sanguine about the end of war, and as analysts
associated with the nation's military effort, we maintain a healthy respect for anticipating
early the emerging challenges which counsel the timely formulation of appropriate
responses.
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