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2<br />
JUNE <strong>2015</strong><br />
DEVONDALE MURRAY GOULBURN<br />
INTERNATIONAL MARKET REVIEW<br />
Prices down but decline has slowed<br />
International prices $US/MT FOB<br />
THE results of Global Dairy<br />
Trade (GDT) Event 140<br />
which concluded on 19<br />
May <strong>2015</strong> produced a GDT<br />
Price Index which was down by<br />
2.2 per cent.<br />
While this is the fifth successive<br />
decline in the index, the rate<br />
of decline has slowed with the<br />
participation rate increasing to<br />
162 buyers from a low of 127 on<br />
1 April.<br />
The result on Whole Milk<br />
Powder (WMP) was down 0.5<br />
per cent suggesting that prices in<br />
this category may be stabilising<br />
which is positive given that this<br />
represents nearly half of the total<br />
volume on offer at this event.<br />
Prices were down in all categories<br />
other than Butter Milk<br />
Powder (BMP) and Lactose<br />
where volume traded was<br />
minimal.<br />
The result of this auction event<br />
continues to reflect a weak market<br />
where buyers are still coming<br />
to terms with the forward direction<br />
on prices.<br />
The weakest category at present<br />
is Skim Milk Powder (SMP)<br />
where supply exceeds demand<br />
The <strong>Devondaler</strong> is published<br />
by Devondale Murray<br />
Goulburn<br />
Editor: Robert White (03)<br />
9846 5188 or 0427 329 815<br />
tophill@optusnet.com.au<br />
and supported by milk growth in<br />
major producing regions.<br />
Milk production in the EU is<br />
still increasing and expected to<br />
be just as strong as last year.<br />
Year-on-year milk production in<br />
the EU is currently down, however<br />
early reports suggest that<br />
April numbers are well up on<br />
forecast.<br />
In the USA, April milk production<br />
figures confirm growth<br />
of 1.75 per cent over last year<br />
with declines in drought-hit<br />
California more than off-set by<br />
gains in the more traditional<br />
milk production regions.<br />
The Australian dollar continues<br />
to trade strongly and even<br />
strengthened, following the drop<br />
in the cash rate of 25 basis<br />
points announced by the RBA<br />
on 5 May.<br />
This highlights that the<br />
Australian dollar rate is influenced<br />
more by the actions of the<br />
US Federal Reserve, where continued<br />
delays to the much publicised<br />
first rise in interest rates<br />
since the Global Financial Crisis<br />
continue to support our dollar.<br />
Any significant easing in our<br />
dollar is likely to be dependent<br />
on the timing of this rate rise in<br />
US which is now likely to be<br />
September <strong>2015</strong> at the earliest.<br />
The latest weakness in the<br />
Euro is also likely to maintain<br />
downward pressure on commodity<br />
prices in the short term.<br />
The ongoing absence of<br />
Russia and China remains a concern.<br />
With China’s milk production<br />
reportedly up five per cent<br />
and retail demand down in<br />
China, a recovery in this market<br />
appears increasingly unlikely in<br />
<strong>2015</strong>.<br />
Russian sanctions expire early<br />
August <strong>2015</strong> however most EU<br />
producers and trade experts<br />
believe that sanctions will continue<br />
beyond August <strong>2015</strong>.<br />
While the overall sentiment<br />
remains weak, it is likely that we<br />
are at or near the end of the<br />
current easing cycle.<br />
Many buyers report they are<br />
covered for supply in the<br />
medium term.<br />
Therefore we do not expect a<br />
significant improvement in<br />
prices until there is either a supply<br />
side event to curtail production<br />
or a return of key buyers to<br />
bolster demand and restore balance<br />
to global trade.<br />
● Mal Beniston is MG’s<br />
General Manager Ingredients<br />
Key Results:<br />
MAIN PRODUCTS<br />
SMP down 3.6%, average<br />
price $US1992/MT<br />
WMP down 0.5%, average<br />
price $US2390/MT<br />
AMF down 4.8%, average<br />
price $US3337/MT<br />
OTHER PRODUCTS<br />
Butter down 3.2%, average<br />
price $US2911/MT<br />
BMP up 3.2%, average price<br />
$US1930/MT<br />
Cheddar down 7.1%, average<br />
price $US2745/MT<br />
Lactose up 0.9%, average<br />
price $US50<br />
Rennet Casein down 0.4%,<br />
average price $US6067/MT<br />
Don’t take a risk with risk management<br />
Advertising and classified<br />
enquiries: (03) 9040 5000<br />
Murray Goulburn<br />
Co-operative Co. Limited,<br />
Level 15, 2 Southbank<br />
Boulevard, Southbank,<br />
Victoria 3006<br />
Phone: (03) 9040 5000<br />
MG suppliers and employees<br />
are welcome to submit<br />
photograps and editorial for<br />
consideration. Deadline is the<br />
24th of each month.<br />
The Devondale<br />
Murray Goulburn<br />
Twitter account is<br />
online now at<br />
@DevondaleMG<br />
RISK is something we all<br />
face every day. It’s part of<br />
the normal rhythm of life.<br />
But it is a bit sobering to think<br />
that farms remain one of the<br />
most dangerous of all workplaces.<br />
And with National Farm<br />
Safety Week starting on July 20,<br />
it is timely to consider how safe<br />
your farm is.<br />
Each month, the <strong>Devondaler</strong><br />
runs a column on farmer health,<br />
highlighting issues confronting<br />
each and every Devondale<br />
Murray Goulburn supplier.<br />
A couple of issues ago, the<br />
<strong>Devondaler</strong> highlighted how<br />
simple it is to be cut down by a<br />
staph infection after a supplier<br />
was hospitalised when a small<br />
open wound was exposed to<br />
milk infected with mastitis.<br />
In the past month, both<br />
Worksafe and Farmsafe have<br />
highlighted the fact that tractors<br />
and quad bikes remain the greatest<br />
killers on farms.<br />
An accident is just that.<br />
Something that was unexpected.<br />
But in too many cases, failure<br />
to understand and manage risk<br />
means that an accident is more a<br />
case of irresponsibility.<br />
I am encouraged by the number<br />
of farmers I now see wearing<br />
helmets when they ride both a<br />
two wheel bike and/or a quad<br />
bike.<br />
But there are still too many<br />
instances where I have seen a<br />
quad bike used as a racing<br />
machine, rather than the valuable<br />
farm tool that it can be.<br />
Farming, and dairy farming in<br />
particular, can be a lonely life.<br />
Many hours are spent in paddocks<br />
or in the milking shed on<br />
your own.<br />
This, in itself, creates risk. A<br />
fall, an attack by stock or even a<br />
cardiac arrest can leave a farmer<br />
vulnerable.<br />
Let people know what you are<br />
doing on a particular day and<br />
where you will be.<br />
The mobile phone can also be<br />
a wonderful safety tool and regular<br />
calls can provide reassurance<br />
at both ends of the line.<br />
Children also need to be<br />
educated in farm safety. Dams<br />
and channels may be fun in<br />
summer heat but they are also<br />
dangerous.<br />
Tanker drivers cannot always<br />
see everything that goes on<br />
around them when they arrive at<br />
a farm, so teaching children to<br />
be alert and aware is critical.<br />
MG has introduced a Goal<br />
Zero program to cut workplace<br />
injuries in factories and offices<br />
and the themes that form the key<br />
parts of the program could easily<br />
be followed on farm.<br />
As National Farm Safety Week<br />
approaches, let’s not be yet<br />
another statistic to add to the<br />
fatality list.