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Devondaler-June-2015

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2<br />

JUNE <strong>2015</strong><br />

DEVONDALE MURRAY GOULBURN<br />

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REVIEW<br />

Prices down but decline has slowed<br />

International prices $US/MT FOB<br />

THE results of Global Dairy<br />

Trade (GDT) Event 140<br />

which concluded on 19<br />

May <strong>2015</strong> produced a GDT<br />

Price Index which was down by<br />

2.2 per cent.<br />

While this is the fifth successive<br />

decline in the index, the rate<br />

of decline has slowed with the<br />

participation rate increasing to<br />

162 buyers from a low of 127 on<br />

1 April.<br />

The result on Whole Milk<br />

Powder (WMP) was down 0.5<br />

per cent suggesting that prices in<br />

this category may be stabilising<br />

which is positive given that this<br />

represents nearly half of the total<br />

volume on offer at this event.<br />

Prices were down in all categories<br />

other than Butter Milk<br />

Powder (BMP) and Lactose<br />

where volume traded was<br />

minimal.<br />

The result of this auction event<br />

continues to reflect a weak market<br />

where buyers are still coming<br />

to terms with the forward direction<br />

on prices.<br />

The weakest category at present<br />

is Skim Milk Powder (SMP)<br />

where supply exceeds demand<br />

The <strong>Devondaler</strong> is published<br />

by Devondale Murray<br />

Goulburn<br />

Editor: Robert White (03)<br />

9846 5188 or 0427 329 815<br />

tophill@optusnet.com.au<br />

and supported by milk growth in<br />

major producing regions.<br />

Milk production in the EU is<br />

still increasing and expected to<br />

be just as strong as last year.<br />

Year-on-year milk production in<br />

the EU is currently down, however<br />

early reports suggest that<br />

April numbers are well up on<br />

forecast.<br />

In the USA, April milk production<br />

figures confirm growth<br />

of 1.75 per cent over last year<br />

with declines in drought-hit<br />

California more than off-set by<br />

gains in the more traditional<br />

milk production regions.<br />

The Australian dollar continues<br />

to trade strongly and even<br />

strengthened, following the drop<br />

in the cash rate of 25 basis<br />

points announced by the RBA<br />

on 5 May.<br />

This highlights that the<br />

Australian dollar rate is influenced<br />

more by the actions of the<br />

US Federal Reserve, where continued<br />

delays to the much publicised<br />

first rise in interest rates<br />

since the Global Financial Crisis<br />

continue to support our dollar.<br />

Any significant easing in our<br />

dollar is likely to be dependent<br />

on the timing of this rate rise in<br />

US which is now likely to be<br />

September <strong>2015</strong> at the earliest.<br />

The latest weakness in the<br />

Euro is also likely to maintain<br />

downward pressure on commodity<br />

prices in the short term.<br />

The ongoing absence of<br />

Russia and China remains a concern.<br />

With China’s milk production<br />

reportedly up five per cent<br />

and retail demand down in<br />

China, a recovery in this market<br />

appears increasingly unlikely in<br />

<strong>2015</strong>.<br />

Russian sanctions expire early<br />

August <strong>2015</strong> however most EU<br />

producers and trade experts<br />

believe that sanctions will continue<br />

beyond August <strong>2015</strong>.<br />

While the overall sentiment<br />

remains weak, it is likely that we<br />

are at or near the end of the<br />

current easing cycle.<br />

Many buyers report they are<br />

covered for supply in the<br />

medium term.<br />

Therefore we do not expect a<br />

significant improvement in<br />

prices until there is either a supply<br />

side event to curtail production<br />

or a return of key buyers to<br />

bolster demand and restore balance<br />

to global trade.<br />

● Mal Beniston is MG’s<br />

General Manager Ingredients<br />

Key Results:<br />

MAIN PRODUCTS<br />

SMP down 3.6%, average<br />

price $US1992/MT<br />

WMP down 0.5%, average<br />

price $US2390/MT<br />

AMF down 4.8%, average<br />

price $US3337/MT<br />

OTHER PRODUCTS<br />

Butter down 3.2%, average<br />

price $US2911/MT<br />

BMP up 3.2%, average price<br />

$US1930/MT<br />

Cheddar down 7.1%, average<br />

price $US2745/MT<br />

Lactose up 0.9%, average<br />

price $US50<br />

Rennet Casein down 0.4%,<br />

average price $US6067/MT<br />

Don’t take a risk with risk management<br />

Advertising and classified<br />

enquiries: (03) 9040 5000<br />

Murray Goulburn<br />

Co-operative Co. Limited,<br />

Level 15, 2 Southbank<br />

Boulevard, Southbank,<br />

Victoria 3006<br />

Phone: (03) 9040 5000<br />

MG suppliers and employees<br />

are welcome to submit<br />

photograps and editorial for<br />

consideration. Deadline is the<br />

24th of each month.<br />

The Devondale<br />

Murray Goulburn<br />

Twitter account is<br />

online now at<br />

@DevondaleMG<br />

RISK is something we all<br />

face every day. It’s part of<br />

the normal rhythm of life.<br />

But it is a bit sobering to think<br />

that farms remain one of the<br />

most dangerous of all workplaces.<br />

And with National Farm<br />

Safety Week starting on July 20,<br />

it is timely to consider how safe<br />

your farm is.<br />

Each month, the <strong>Devondaler</strong><br />

runs a column on farmer health,<br />

highlighting issues confronting<br />

each and every Devondale<br />

Murray Goulburn supplier.<br />

A couple of issues ago, the<br />

<strong>Devondaler</strong> highlighted how<br />

simple it is to be cut down by a<br />

staph infection after a supplier<br />

was hospitalised when a small<br />

open wound was exposed to<br />

milk infected with mastitis.<br />

In the past month, both<br />

Worksafe and Farmsafe have<br />

highlighted the fact that tractors<br />

and quad bikes remain the greatest<br />

killers on farms.<br />

An accident is just that.<br />

Something that was unexpected.<br />

But in too many cases, failure<br />

to understand and manage risk<br />

means that an accident is more a<br />

case of irresponsibility.<br />

I am encouraged by the number<br />

of farmers I now see wearing<br />

helmets when they ride both a<br />

two wheel bike and/or a quad<br />

bike.<br />

But there are still too many<br />

instances where I have seen a<br />

quad bike used as a racing<br />

machine, rather than the valuable<br />

farm tool that it can be.<br />

Farming, and dairy farming in<br />

particular, can be a lonely life.<br />

Many hours are spent in paddocks<br />

or in the milking shed on<br />

your own.<br />

This, in itself, creates risk. A<br />

fall, an attack by stock or even a<br />

cardiac arrest can leave a farmer<br />

vulnerable.<br />

Let people know what you are<br />

doing on a particular day and<br />

where you will be.<br />

The mobile phone can also be<br />

a wonderful safety tool and regular<br />

calls can provide reassurance<br />

at both ends of the line.<br />

Children also need to be<br />

educated in farm safety. Dams<br />

and channels may be fun in<br />

summer heat but they are also<br />

dangerous.<br />

Tanker drivers cannot always<br />

see everything that goes on<br />

around them when they arrive at<br />

a farm, so teaching children to<br />

be alert and aware is critical.<br />

MG has introduced a Goal<br />

Zero program to cut workplace<br />

injuries in factories and offices<br />

and the themes that form the key<br />

parts of the program could easily<br />

be followed on farm.<br />

As National Farm Safety Week<br />

approaches, let’s not be yet<br />

another statistic to add to the<br />

fatality list.

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