WV Juvenile Corrections Forecast 2002-2013 - West Virginia ...

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Forecast ResultsKey AssumptionsThe juvenile corrections population forecast in thisreport was completed using the Wizard 2000simulation and projections model. This model simulatesthe movements of offenders through the juvenilesystem based on known and assumed policiesaffecting both the volume of admissions into the systemand the lengths-of-stay for juveniles who are housedwithin the state’s two correctional facilities. Itsimulates the movements of individual cases, byoffense category, and projects each separately.The following key assumptions were used and havea significant impact on the projections results.A. The composition of future annual new courtcommitments is assumed to be the same as thecomposition of admissions between January 1,2001 and December 31, 2001.Projections in this report are based on admissionand release data provided by the state for the timeperiod January 1, 2001 to December 21, 2001. Thefiles provided represented all admissions and releasesfrom the Juvenile Corrections Database (WVIHY andDavis). Future admissions are assumed to “look like”these admissions in terms of the proportion of admittingcharges, length-of-stay, likelihood of release, andmethod of release.B. Separate forecasts were produced for thetotal juvenile population and diagnosticevaluation beds disaggregated by male andfemale.The simulation model used for this forecast wasconstructed to predict male and female juvenileoffender populations separately. It is important tonote for any simulation model the more disaggregatedthe offender data is, the more precise and accuratethe resulting forecast will be. The model was alsoconstructed by analyzing the gender based data byadmitting offense type. Constructing the model inthis manner will add precision and accuracy to theresulting forecast.C. Over the forecast period, new courtadmissions are projected to increase by anoverall average of 2.6% each year through theyear 2013.The new admissions assumptions used in thisforecast were developed by combining historical trendsin juvenile corrections admissions for the past fouryears, the correlation between the historicaldemographic state population, the historical crime rate,and the projected demographic growth for the state.The juvenile corrections population forecastassumes that the number of annual new commitmentswill increase from 203 in 2001 to 276 in 2013. Thisrepresents an increase of 73 inmates over the 11 yearperiod with an average annual increase of 2.6 percentper year. This admissions assumption is consistentwith what is being observed and forecasted acrossthe country.ForecastSignificant Finding: If current trends continuewithout change, the juvenile correctionspopulation will grow to 222 by the end of 2007and to 279 by the end of 2013.The following page contains the juvenile correctionspopulation projections. Projections are presented forall juvenile offenders, males, females, and diagnostics.Graph 13 illustrates the historical and projected juvenilecorrection populations from 1997 to 2013.RecommendationsThis report is the first forecast of the juvenilecorrections population for state leaders and others touse to plan for the future. The authors of this reportwould like to offer several recommendations regardingits use and the production of future forecasts.#1: Ensure High Data Quality in New SystemsThe Division of Juvenile Services should becommended for the development of a new trackingsystem which they are currently implementing in alljuvenile facilities. The system will enable researchersto obtain valuable information about the juvenilepopulation without the burden of paper-and-pencil datacollection instruments. DJS should ensure thatmeasures are taken to ensure high data quality, suchas reviewing and cleaning data on a regular basis andconducting random data quality audits. DJS shouldalso continue to work with the Criminal Justice22Juvenile Corrections Forecast
Statistical Analysis Center to ensure that theappropriate data elements can be used for theforecast.#2: Produce Annual Juvenile CorrectionsReportsThe Criminal Justice Statistical Analysis Center hasproduced several annual juvenile corrections statisticalreports, but this report is the first to include apopulation forecast. The CJSAC should continue toproduce this report and eliminate the shorter annualreports to prevent duplication of efforts and expenses.Future reports should assess annual changes in thetypes of juveniles committed to corrections and theircorresponding length-of-stay, to name two importantfactors. This information will allow the researchersand readers to assess the extent to which each factorcontributes to the changes in the population.#3: Continue to Cooperate with Researcherson the Topic of Racial DisparityThe Criminal Justice Statistical Analysis Center hasshared information, as well as technical assistance,with researchers studying the topic of racial disparity.The analyses by race and gender illustrate theusefulness of the CJSAC to these endeavors.#4: Request Additional Information andAssistanceThe authors of this report are available to answerquestions about the juvenile corrections population andassist others in using the information in this report.Juvenile Corrections Forecast 23
Page 1: Juvenile Corrections Forecast2002-2
Page 5: Table of ContentsExecutive Summary
Page 8 and 9: IntroductionCurrent juvenile correc
Page 10 and 11: ResultsFlow of JuvenilesJuveniles w
Page 12 and 13: Significant Finding: Approximately
Page 14 and 15: Significant Finding: Of those juven
Page 16 and 17: Length-of-StaySignificant Finding:
Page 18 and 19: Confined Juvenile PopulationThe con
Page 20 and 21: Significant Finding: The offenses c
Page 22 and 23: Significant Finding: The juvenile c

WV Juvenile Corrections Forecast 2002-2013 - West Virginia ...

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