2008_RAND_Pacific_View_Air_Combat_Briefing

More reasonable BVR missile Pk assumptionsresult in 3:1 or lower kill ratio in favor of F-22Unclassified/FOUO/Sensitive• Red CONOP is simple– No missile defeatmaneuvers– Easy navigation andtiming coordination– “If confused head Easthigh and fast andshoot at Blueairplanes”BVR Combat Exchange RatioExchange Ratio R/BF-22s On Station F-35s On StationBlue BVR Missile Pk6 0Red BVR Missile Pk 1.0 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 0.05 0.01 Missiles Fired Missiles Fired0.90 6.00 5.50 4.50 3.00 1.50 0.67 0.33 0.17 36 00.75 6.00 5.50 4.50 3.00 1.50 0.67 0.33 0.170.50 6.00 5.50 4.50 3.00 1.50 0.67 0.33 0.17 Total US Fighters0.25 6.00 5.50 4.50 3.00 1.50 0.67 0.33Likely0.17 60.10 6.00 5.50 4.50 3.00 1.50 0.67 0.33 0.17 Total Missiles Fired0.05 7.20 6.60 5.40 3.00 1.50 0.67 0.33 0.17 360.01 18.00 16.50 13.50 9.00 3.00 1.33Outcomes0.67 0.33Total Red Fighters72• Flanker/F-22 kill ratio is:– Extremely insensitiveto Red BVR missile Pkdue to massive salvotactics– Highly sensitive toBlue BVR missile PkBlue BVR Missile Pk1.0 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 0.05 0.01Red Fighters Killed 36 33 27 18 9 4 2 1Red Fighters Survive 36 39 45 54 63 68 70 71Red Missiles Fired 144 156 180 216 252 272 280 284Red Missile PkBlue Fighters Killed0.90 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 60.75 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 60.50 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 60.25 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 60.10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 60.05 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 60.01 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3LikelyOutcomesAir Combat PPF 51