SofteningTheBlow

IntroductionIn January 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron laidout plans for a referendum on our membership ofthe European Union. His plans include reform of EUinstitutions, achieved through renegotiation, but thisstudy assumes the likelihood of British exit, as argued inprevious Civitas publications. 1 With the growth of Eurorealismin Britain, reflected in Tory backbench motionsand the United Kingdom Independence Party’s newfoundprominence, secession appears more likely than ever.However, a significant minority of British voters,businesses and sectors argue that we must remain in the EU.These include the Liberal Democrats, devolution parties inScotland and Wales, and lobbyists for City and agriculturalinterests. The EU has tendrils that have infiltrated Britishlife for forty years, affecting our tax, our prices, our labourmarket and our export strength. Those in favour of ‘Brexit’cannot simply trumpet the constitutional and economicbenefits of leaving to drown out experts who foresee majorimpact in their particular fields.It is unlikely that renegotiation will triumph. Commentatorssuch as Lord Lawson 2 and Lord Hannay 3 show thatwinning meaningful concessions from 27 other states isnear-impossible. Cameron may manage to take homea few headline reforms, which will doubtless be vauntedas substantial. It’s hard to imagine these satisfying theUK’s concerns over immigration, trade, corruption anddemocratic illegitimacy. Reforming the EU to addresssuch concerns would amount to a revolution, changing· 1 ·