20 The <strong>Armenian</strong> <strong>Reporter</strong> | May 31, 2008ArmeniaMarket updateby the CascadeInvestments teamA. Rates and bondsRatesThe Central Bank of Armenia (CBA),announced on May 5 that the CBABoard had raised the refinancingrate by 25 basis points to 6.75 percentfrom 6.50 percent. The boardjustified this move with referenceto inflationary pressures, notingthat in April, 12-month inflationhad reached 10.7 percent, whichwas 4 percentage points higherthan in 2007. Further tighteningpolicy might be favored in theshort-term: “The Board agreesthat the inflationary pressures willpersist, and gradual tightening ofmonetary conditions is aimed atmoderating secondary impacts andinflation expectations conditionedby external developments.”The tightening of the rates sofar has impacted short-term yields,which is explained by the uncertaintyin world commodity pricetrends in the medium term.MaturityYTM23/04/2008Exchange RatesThere were no significant changesin the USD/AMD rate comparedwith the beginning of the year.On the other hand, the EUR/AMDpair was much more volatile andthe euro appreciated by almost5–10 percent since the beginning of2008, along with general strengtheningof currency in internationalmarkets associated with EuropeanCentral Bank’s decision not to cutrates. USD/AMD movements aremore associated with currency remittances,financial accounts, aswell as the population’s preferencefor holding dollar-denominatedassets, whereas EUR/AMD fluctuationscan be substantially impactedby trade flows (around 50 percentof exports go to the EU).The average weighted rates indicatedin April at Armex were 309.18against 1 USD and 486.43 dramsagainst 1 EUR.Corporate SecuritiesThe average weighted yield of corporatebonds in April has increasedby 30 basis points as compared withthe previous month. This was associatedwith the expectation thatthe base rate would increase.IndexesCascade Business Sentiment Index(CBSI)The Cascade Business SentimentIndex for the months of April-May2008 is 5.0, which is a slightly decreaseover the last month. Themain concern of market participantsis the uncertainty in theworld economic outlook as wellas the rise of commodity prices(which has already resulted in highYTM26/03/20086 month 7.0000 6.7500 251 year 6.7500 6.6000 152 year 6.3935 6.3935 05 year 7.8922 7.4125 487 year 9.1028 9.1265 -210 year 10.684 10.710 -2Source: CBA YTMChange ( bps)inflationary expectations).The Cascade Business SentimentIndex is our approach to forecastingsentiment about Armenia’sbusiness trends. The SentimentIndex is based on a survey, the respondentsof which are a group ofindividuals who own or operatestable and growing businesses inArmenia. The survey measures thebusiness owners’ expectations forthe near future by addressing tothem questions and calculating theweighted average of their replies on a numerical scale (from 1, themost pessimistic, to 10, the mostoptimistic).Cascade Commodity index (CCI)The Cascade Commodity Indexfor April-May 2008 is 18023. Theindex indicates a monthly increasein the last few months (7.5 percentas compared with the last month).However the CBA is making an effortto resist inflationary pressures;thus it is expected that in the followingmonth the main commodityprices will be stabilized.The commodities tracked by theindex are (1) petroleum (20 liters);(2) steel (100 kg); (3) pork (10 kg);(4) flour (10 kg); (5) corn oil (10 liters).Major Events“Finances, Loans, Insurance, andAudit Expo-2008” launched in Yerevanat the beginning of MayOver 25 organizations participatedin the exhibition “Finances,Loans, Insurance, and Audit Expo-2008” organized by LOGOS EXPOCenter Company.The following sections were presentedat the exhibition: banking;banking services for legal entitiesand individuals; mortgage crediting;crediting of small and mediumenterprises; consumer expresscrediting;car crediting; financialconsulting; investment management;insurance; realtor and assessmentservices; audit services.“The exhibition is meant to improvethe understanding of thesociety on the financial service providedin Armenia. The organizationof such events is an important stepfrom the point of view of securingtransparency of the financial systemand protecting the rights ofconsumers of financial services,”Artur Javadyan, deputy chair ofthe CBA, stated at the exhibition.Russian AFK “Sistema” confirms interestin acquiring a bank in ArmeniaThe Moscow Bank for Reconstructionand Development (MBRD)intends to acquire a bank in Armenia.The chair of the Board of MBRD,Sergey Zaitsev, said this in aninterview with Interfax. Accordingto him, in 2008 MBRD plans toinvest in deals on acquiring about$570 million in banking assets. Themain shareholder of MBRD, amongthe 50 largest banks of Russia in 121086420%0 2 4 6 8 10 12YearsSpot rate Forward rate YTM112%109%106%103%100%terms of the volume of capital andnet assets, is the AFK “Sistema”Corporation. AFK “Sistema” alreadyowns large assets in Armenia: an80 percent share of the <strong>Armenian</strong>“VivaCell” mobile operator belongsto MTS Company, which is affiliatedwith “Sistema”, and another companyof the holding, “Comstar-OTS,”owns the <strong>Armenian</strong> “Cornet-AM”Internet service provider.Fourteen banks and 1 credit organizationentered the list of 300 largesttaxpayers in ArmeniaThe largest taxpayer in the bankingsector of Armenia in the firstquarter is Ardshininvestbank. Thetotal sum of the taxes paid by thebank was 578.7 million drams. Ardshininvestbankoccupies the 22ndplace in the list of 300 largest taxpayersof Armenia.The 30th place in the list is occupiedby ACBA-Credit Agricole Bank, whichpaid 501.3 million drams in taxes. The51st place is occupied by HSBC BankArmenia (302.7 million drams).Defeated in soccerThe Under-19 national team of Armeniasuffered a 2-1 defeat fromthe Turkish team on May 22 in theopening match of a UEFA EuropeanUnder-19 Championship EliteRound Group 7 tournament hostedin Armenia, May 22-27.The <strong>Armenian</strong>s first conceded agoal to Turkey’s Sercan Yildirimin the tenth minute. They equalizedjust before half-time thanksto Tigran Voskanyan’s effort. ButErhan Senturk struck just pastthe hour, and the score remainedunchanged until the end of thematch.The two countries’ main teamsare drawn in the same World Cup2010 qualifying group and are dueto start their campaigns with agame in Yerevan in early September.Before that, the two countries’under-21 teams will play in a Euro-2009 qualifier also in Yerevan onAugust 20.Meanwhile, Ukraine beat Armenia0-1 and Spain beat Armenia 2-4.With no points at all Armenia isat the bottom of the group of countrieswhich are qualifying for Europeanunder-19 championship.Yield Curve 23/04/2008Exchange Rates97%8-Jan 7-Feb 8-Mar 7-Apr 7-MaySource: CBAEUR/AMDUSD/AMDThe 259th place in the list isoccupied by Finca UniversalCredit Organization (58.4 milliondrams).“HSBC Bank Armenia” wins GlobalFinance and The Banker magazineawardsHSBC Bank Armenia won the“Best Bank in Armenia” award inGlobal Finance magazine’s “BestEmerging Market Bank in Asia”competition for 2008.The press service of HSBC BankArmenia reports that the criteriafor choosing the winners includedgrowth in assets, profitability,strategic relationships, customerservice, competitive pricing, andinnovative products. The selectionwas made based on the opinion ofGlobal Finance editors, as well asthe expert conclusions of competentspecialists.HSBC Bank Armenia also receivedthe award Bank of the Yearin Armenia – 2007 from The Bankermagazine.fMore Armenia briefsArmenia vs. Turkey. Photo: Photolure.Aram KarapetianreleasedAram Karapetian, the leader ofthe New Times Party, who has beenin pretrial detention since late February,on May 26 was released onthe strength of a pledge not to leavethe country. He had been hospitalizedon May 16 with heart problems.He is accused of disseminating falseaccusations of criminal wrongdoing.The charges stem from a DVD accusingtop officials of complicity in theassassination of the prime minister,the Speaker of parliament, and otherofficials on October 27, 1999. f
The <strong>Armenian</strong> <strong>Reporter</strong> | May 31, 2008 21Commentary“Character makes the man and woman”An address to graduatingstudentsby Dr. Vartan GregorianI want to pay tribute to Clark University fornot abandoning Worcester, for not walkingaway from Worcester; for not giving up on K-to-12 education but providing models for itsrenewal; for not giving up on local communitiesbut rather forming productive partnershipssuch as Clark Park; for Clark’s convictionthat democracy and excellence are notmutually exclusive.Commencements are special, symbolic,solemn, and joyous occasions marking theend of one phase of life and the beginning ofanother. As I look out today, I am delightedthat there are so many people to celebratethis wonderful day with you. In 1958 whenI graduated from Stanford University, I hadno family in this country, and indeed I hadno one to attend my graduation ceremony.So I did not march. In 1964 when Ph.D. degreeswere awarded, I was teaching. I hadonce again no opportunity to attend that ceremonyeither. So today it is with envy, greatenthusiasm, and admiration that I am participatingin your commencement, and, forthe first time, my sister and brother-in-lawfrom Iran and my nephew from Boston areattending my graduation.Rest at ease. I am not a politician in searchof votes or in need of yet another platform to“clarify,” once again, my previous positions ona variety of issues. Thank God I am not one ofthose who is famous for being famous. I amhere as an academic, to witness this solemnday of your commencement, your new beginningthat marks the sacrifice of your parents,dedication of your professors and, mostimportantly, your own sustained hard work,faith, determination, and accomplishments.Commencement speeches mark a rite ofpassage. While I am honored to be part ofyour celebration and the class of 2008, I haveno illusion about my role. After all, hardlyanyone remembers their commencementspeech, or even who gave it, unless it wasa celebrity like Jennifer Anniston, QuentinTarantino, Bruce Willis, Orlando Bloom,Oprah Winfrey, or even the President of theUnited States.I checked to see what have been the mostmemorable commencement speeches evergiven so that I would not be off the mark.Looking back half a century, I was astonishedto find that, according to The Washington Post,there were three unforgettable commencementaddresses: one was given in 1947 byU.S. Secretary of State George Marshall, whoannounced the legendary U.S. plan to rebuildEurope after World War II. Another was givenin 1963 by President John F. Kennedy, whoannounced a moratorium on nuclear weaponstests. The third one, however, which hadno news value at all, was given in 1997. Itfeatured my late friend Kurt Vonnegut. Itbegan with a famous line: “Ladies and gentlemenof the class of ‘97. Wear sunscreen.”Other bits of advice included injunctions to“floss,” “sing,” “stretch” and “don’t mess toomuch with your hair.” My favorite line was:“Remember compliments you receive. Forgetthe insults. If you succeed in doing this, tellme how.” Thank God the so-called “VonnegutSpeech,” which set a new tone for commencementspeeches, turned out to be an internethoax.I have also come here today to pay tributeto American higher education and one of itsexemplary institutions, Clark University, toClark’s amazing legacy, its outstanding faculty,its remarkable leaders. I am here to payhomage to you, students, to your growth aseducated, cultured citizens, to your metamorphosisinto the kind of people-humanbeings-who have developed the ability atleast to try to comprehend the incomprehensible;to make sense out of confusion; wrestlesome logic out of the illogical; and challengeDr. Vartan Gregorian is the president of the CarnegieCorporation of New York, and a distinguishedhistorian, educator, and author, whose personalmemoir, The Road to Home: My Life and Times, waspublished in 2003. What appears here is a transcriptionof the commencement address he delivered atClark University, in Worcester, Mass., on May 18.even ugliness to show some glimmer of beautysomewhere deep within its core. You havespent the last four, five or six years at ClarkUniversity in order to learn how to analyze,synthesize and systematize informationand knowledge; to separate the chaff fromthe wheat; subjectivity from objectivity; factfrom opinion; public interests from privateinterests; manipulations from influence; and“spin” from corruption.I hope you have learned to be flexible inyour thinking, adaptable in your analysis ofissues, and appreciative of the complexitiesthat comprise almost every aspect of dailylife-both on the human and global scale. I’msure you don’t yet realize just what an extraordinaryskill you have developed, howwell it will serve you in the future, and howdesperately the world needs people who arenot paralyzed by complexity but welcome theopportunity it brings to think new thoughts,develop new ideas, and find new ways tosolve problems. I am sure you are, and alwayswill be, mindful of the great American humoristH. L. Mencken’s warning that: “thereis always an easy solution to every humanproblem: neat, plausible ... and wrong!”I am sure your Clark University educationhas prepared you to begin to understand therelationship of the unique and individualself to the social, political, and cultural worldaround you. I hope it has also given you thecourage to think those big, imponderablethoughts that are our companions throughoutour lives, such as: what is our relationshipto universal order? What is our placeas a human being amongst the great sea ofmankind? Though you may never answerthese and other questions for yourselves,and perhaps they will always be unanswerable,they will help you create a frameworkfor the way you live your lives.In this difficult time when many of us worryabout our country and its direction, aboutits values, its promise and its future, I’m stillconvinced that while America is not perfect,it is still perfectible. It is still a land of opportunityfor immigrants and for internationalstudents, not only Americans alone. Many ofyou in the audience today are proof of that aswell. It’s amazing, isn’t it, that until recentlytwo-thirds of all students studying abroadhave been attending American colleges anduniversities?But with the opportunity we have all hadto study at America’s great institutions ofhigher learning, comes responsibility, as well.What we have learned in school we must findways to put into action. We cannot retreatfrom the big issues of society and the worldand our time into the pygmy world of privatepiety. Nor can we become cynics paralyzed byour own disdain, and we must not becomewecannot afford to become-social, politicaland moral isolationists.That is especially true for those of us whoare foreign or current international students.Whether we remain here or to returnto our native countries, we have the obligationto build bridges between our nations,our societies and the United States, and viceVartanGregorianat ClarkUniversity.versa, especially now. And those who comefrom developing countries have yet anotherobligation, and a very weighty one, to worktoward creating a better quality of life forthose at home and to advance the opportunitiesthat are available to them. After all, yourepresent their hopes for a better future.For those of us who were born elsewherebut were educated here and then becameAmerican citizens, we have reason to bedoubly grateful. One, because we receivedour education in America, not to mentionfinancial support. And two, because Americagranted us the privilege of citizenship in acountry whose [Declaration of Independence]proclaims that “we hold these truthsto be self-evident, that all men are createdequal, that they are endowed by their creatorwith certain unalienable rights, that amongthese are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”These are lofty aspirations. Remember,however, that America has always been andwill always be a work in progress. Every generationhas and must contribute to that ongoingprogress. As John Gardner once said,it is important to be both a loving critic anda critical lover. America needs all of us to beboth.And now let me come back to you! Clarkmarks the beginning of your latest wonderful,arduous journey. It has provided youwith the means to be on your way. It hasgiven you not only an education, a professionand all the skills and confidences you need todo well in the world, but it has also given youchoices and the ability to choose. Sometimesyou may find you have so many choices thatall the possibilities available to you will beoverwhelming. This morning I’d like to sharewith you three lessons I have learned thatmay – I stress may – assist you in makingyour choices.The first lesson, actually, is a well-knownone. I believe, if I’m not mistaken, it wasSir William Osler, professor of medicine atOxford University in the early years of the20th century, who said that young men – andwomen – should be careful in the selection oftheir ambitions because they’re likely to realizethem. Since you have the education, theknowledge and the training to realize yourambitions, be as sure as you can that yourambition also reflects what you really loveto do.Speaking of your ambition, sometimes youmay be masters of it, but watch out. Sometimesyou may be its slave, and watch out.Other times you may be a victim of hubris.No matter what, try to bear in mind the nextlesson: don’t confuse a job with a career. Inthe past I used to say to students that inyour life, you will have many jobs but onlyone career. Now, however, if we keep on theway we are going in terms of how long wecan expect to live, many of you will be octogenarians,some of you may even be centenarians,so you may have not only manyjobs, but also many careers as well. I haven’tquite reached either age category as yet, butI have worked in a number of fields, as itwas mentioned-academia, libraries and nowphilanthropy – and I can share with you thefact that people often ask me, “Which jobdid you like best?” But they’re asking me thewrong question. I’ve never considered any ofthe positions I’ve held as jobs. In fact, I eventhink of them as more than careers. To me,they have been missions in which teachingand learning are primary ingredients, withme as the primary student.So even though this is probably the lastthing you want to hear today, I want to remindyou that whether you like it or not, inorder to survive and thrive, you will haveto be lifelong students and lifetime learners.And yes, there are and always will be difficulttimes when you will think you have come toa dead end in your life or in your career, evenan apparent point of no return, but let me tellyou as one who has experienced those eventsonce or twice, when that happens, think ofwhat the author Gabriel Garcia Marquez oncesaid when he spoke of the condition that humanbeings are not born once and for all onthe day their mothers gave birth to them, butthat life obliges them to give birth to themselvesover and over again. Time, experience,knowledge, education, love, one’s values, allthese can and do affect us and change us, andenable us to reinvent ourselves. I have inventedmyself many times and I’m sure youwill do the same thing.For me, Marquez’s words have a particularresonance because they reinforce values thatwere taught to me by my maternal grandmother,an illiterate peasant woman. Sheraised me. My grandmother was an illiteratepeasant, a poor one at that. I don’t believethat she knew where Greece was, norRome, nor the United States. She certainlydid not know who Plutarch was, but even soshe taught me the same lesson as Plutarchhighlighted in his celebrated Lives almost2,000 years ago, when he said, essentially,that character makes the man and woman.My grandmother was my first teacher. Sheinstructed me in the moral lessons of life andthe “right way,” through her sheer character,stoic tenacity, formidable dignity, individualityand utter integrity. She was for me thebest example of what good character means.In spite of many adversities and tragedies,wartime ravages, poverty, deprivation andthe deaths of her seven children, she neverbecame cynical, never abandoned her valuesand never compromised her dignity. Indeed,it was from my grandmother that I learnedthat dignity is not negotiable. Your reputationis not for sale and must not be mortgagedas a down payment on your ambitions.It was my grandmother’s living example thatshaped the very foundation of my character.Between what I have learned from Plutarchand my grandmother – a combination offorces I would dare anybody to challenge! – Ifeel confident in telling you that in the comingyears you will meet people who are morepowerful than you, richer than you, smarterthan you, even handsomer or more beautifulthan you, but what will be your distinguishingmark will always be your character. Andwhat will define your character? Your conduct,your ability to live by principles youbelieve in, even if that means fighting tenaciouslyfor what is right over what you knowto be wrong.Nobody goes through life without encounteringobstacles, disappointments, andproblems. Nobody can keep from makingmistakes or taking a wrong turn. Nobody canescape illness or avoid the specter of failure.Let me point out that coping with success iseasy. How you deal with adversity, with failure,and with setbacks will reveal your truecharacter. How nimble you are about gettingback on your feet after some large or smalldisaster or defeat will help you to determinejust how far those feet of yours will take youin the world.But that’s where your upbringing, the textureof your education and your values willhelp you to develop a distinctive attitudetoward life, an attitude that persistentlyseeks meaning and perspective, an attitudethat exudes adaptability and resilience in arelentlessly changing and perplexing world,an attitude of moral courage and steadfastnessin the face of overwhelming humanneed and suffering. How to develop andmaintain such attitudes in an age whereContinued on page 23 m
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