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Knjiga apstrakata - Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of ...

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Bayesian probability <strong>the</strong>ory is <strong>the</strong> probability logicZvonimirŠikić, ZagrebThe only logic <strong>of</strong> uncertainty which supplies us with <strong>the</strong> probability <strong>of</strong> a proposition A given a proposition B, with nosevere restrictions on A and B, is baysian probability <strong>the</strong>ory (BPT).For example, frequentist probability <strong>the</strong>ory supplies us with <strong>the</strong> probability <strong>of</strong> a proposition A only if it describesa result <strong>of</strong> a random experiment. (This restriction is responsible for <strong>the</strong> emergence <strong>of</strong> statistics and its many rules <strong>of</strong>thumb in <strong>the</strong> 20th century.) Even worse are various AI <strong>the</strong>ories <strong>of</strong> uncertain reasoning (e. g. so called fuzzy logics) whichpresuppose <strong>the</strong> probability functionality <strong>of</strong> connectors (which is clearly absurd). We will present <strong>the</strong> main arguments forBPT as <strong>the</strong> probability logic, including a pro<strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong> Cox’s <strong>the</strong>orem.19

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