Newsletter - United States Professional Tennis Association

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Momentum: Fact or Fiction?Doug Eng, Ed.D., Ph.D.,USPTA New England \Sport Science ChairmanUSTA National Sport ScienceCommitteeMomentum is a term used to describe bi-directional advantage of competition which canswing from one team to another, or from one athlete to another. It is a poorly understood phenomenonin sports. Some books and coaches believe in using andmanaging momentum.Interestingly, the little research on momentum indicate that is does not exist as far as scoring.That is, statistics and probability have been used to reasonably predict or explain all hot andcold streaks in sports. For example, Joe DiMaggio’s famous hitting streak must happen statisticallygiven his batting average of .325 but only once or twice each century. It was calculated1that the odds of having a 56-game hitting streak in a 154 game season was 1 in 3,200. The lawof averages balances out streaks ofprobability. Therefore a basketball might have run that goes: GMMMGGMGMMGMGGMG (whereG-field goal made and M=missed). Within the season, the same player may make 10 shots in arow or miss 11 shots in a row since both are well-explained by probability and statistics. Randomstreaks also occur in tennis which is why we almost never see a golden set between twoevenly matched players.In fact, after a hot streak, the law of averages implies that a cold streak mayfollow at some point. Players cannot dramatically change their career shooting averages withina game. If a player shoots 44% from the floor, that percentage varies during the season but theincrease due to skill or shot selection is more gradual than theimprobable streak. It’s not unlike toss a coin where heads comes up 5 times in a row, then outof the next 15, it’s more likely tails will come up. When a coach in basketball calls timeout afterthe other team scores 10 points in a row, the trailing team has a good probability of outscoringthe streaking team. The timeout might appear to work like a good coaching decision, but in realitymuch of it is the law of averages.Athletes do, however, perceive psychological and emotional advantages. Yet, psychologicalperception has been shown not to correlate well with scores. But there are coaching perceptionsas well, similar to the basketball timeout situation just given. Take a hypothetical experimentwhere a student might hit into the net 1/3 of the time. A coach might say, “aim higher” after thestudent misses twice in a row. A coach might get more vocal and shout “load and drive upwards!”after the student misses three times in a row. Now replace the student with a computerprogram that misses 1/3 of the time randomly. By law of averages, after two misses when thecoach says “aim higher” the computer will likely appear to respond positively. And after threemisses when the coach shouts, “load and drive upwards!” the computer will likely to appear torespond positively again. The coach concludes the student is responding better to the shoutingor learning how to load properly. The coach might conclude that the student only pays attentionif shouting or yelling is involved. Another conclusion might be that “load and drive upwards”is better feedback for the student than “aim higher.” Although this experiment is hypothetical,similar experiments have been conducted and show the ‘learning’ occurs after a streak of misses.A classic experiment2 at Bowdoin College had students work with a boy who is supposed tobe at school at 8:30 but he shows up anytime between 8:20 and 8:40. In reality, the “boy” was acomputer program. So if the program had the boy arrive at 8:40, the Bowdoin student stronglyreprimanded the boy. But it is almost 100% that the next time the computer will pick a randomtime before 8:40. Therefore the boy appeared to respond to strong reprimands. Hence we thinkwe learn from errors but perhaps we also learn from doing things right, too. The same is true fora no-hitter in baseball. We appear to jinx the pitcher in the 7th or 8th inning if we mention it butstatistics predicts failure at some point. That is the law of averages, not momentum. It has notbeen shown that non-random streaks occur significantly in sports. (continued on page 10)6
Pr s n the GJohn Ciarleglio selected NECC Men’s Coach of The YearRegis College Division III women's and men's tennis teams won the 2013 NewEngland Collegiate Conference championship. The women’s team was 13 and 1in the fall, beating Baypath College in the finals.The men’s team was 12 and 1 inthe fall and beat Mtchell College in the finals.Regis College is located in Weston, Mass. It was founded in 1927 as a women’scollege and went coed in 2007. John Ciarleglio was hired to start the men’s tennisprogram and also to take over the wmen’s program in 2010. Both teams play falland spring and go to Hiton Head for the spring tennis break. Well done John!110 Turnpike RoadWestborough, MA 01581Tel: 508-366-3450Fax: 508-365-5805ustanewengland.comJeff Bearup of Duxbury, Mass., received USTA New England’shighest honor as the 2012 recipient of The Gardner WardChase Memorial Bowl. The presention was made at the USTANE Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony on Saturday, June 8at the International <strong>Tennis</strong> Hall of Fame in Newport, RI. Theaward is for outstanding contribution to New England tennis.7
Page 1 and 2: YANKEE PROseNew England DivisionSum
Page 3: President’s MessageHello USPTA Pr
Page 8 and 9: JUNIOR TENNIS CAMPJune 23 - 27, Jul
Page 10 and 11: Momentum: Fact or Fiction? (continu
Page 12 and 13: USPTA’s Tennis Buying Show to be
Page 14 and 15: USPTA New England Division Institut
Page 16 and 17: Nominate a worthy tennis pro NOW!Ne
Page 18 and 19: USPTA New England Division Election
Page 20: New England DivisionP. O. Box 126We

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