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The Armenian Reporter | November 8, 2008NationalWashington briefingby Emil SanamyanRegional leaders offercourtesies to PresidentelectObamaFollowing the election of BarackObama as president on November4, foreign leaders communicatedtheir desire to strengthen their respectivecountries’ relations withthe United States.In congratulatory messages,President of Armenia Serge Sargsianand President of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Bako Sahakianspoke of a “new quality” inrelations and “epochal changes” inworld politics that they expect theObama presidency to bring about.In his message, Mr. Sargsian underscoredthe importance of theArmenian-American community,which “repeatedly conveyed” toArmenia’s president “their enthusiasmfor the changes” Mr. Obamahas promised the American people.n Continued from page But the very fact of the declarationis likely to renew expectationsfor a peaceful settlement and providefor an important milestone inthe peace process. Not since May1992 have the presidents of Armeniaand Azerbaijan signed a declarationof this kind.Russian mediation, coming soonafter the war in Georgia and Russianrecognition of South Ossetiaand Abkhazia, is meant to reaffirmRussia’s leadership role in theSouth Caucasus.No commitment to thenonuse of forceThe tortured language of the declarationis almost as important inwhat it painstakingly avoids to saythrough omission or deliberatevagueness as in what it says.The first point commits the partiesto a “political settlement ofthe Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.”Importantly, it does not commitparties to maintain the cease-fire inplace or the nonuse of force.A political settlement, the declarationsays, would be on “the basisof principles and norms of internationallaw and solutions and documentsadopted in their frames.” Itdoes not mention territorial integrityor self-determination or anyspecific solution or document.The second point refers to developing“basic principles of a politicalsettlement” in the future. Importantly,it refers to the “meeting” betweenthe mediators, Armenia, andBoth Armenian presidentsstressed the role the United Statesis playing as a supporter of Armeniaand a mediator in the Karabakhpeace process.Also noting the mediating role ofthe United States was Azerbaijan’sPresident Ilham Aliyev, who inhis message appeared to hold outhope that the United States wouldhelp Azerbaijan to “put an end toArmenia’s aggression and liberateour occupied territories.” Mr. Aliyevalso underscored a “strategicpartnership” between two countriesbased on Azerbaijan’s oil salesto the United States.Both Azerbaijani and Turkishcommentators expressed concernsabout Mr. Obama’s pledge toproperly recognize the ArmenianGenocide. Speaking in reference tothe issue, Prime Minister RecebTayyip Erdogan expressed “hopethat some theses raised during theelection campaign will stay there,”in the past, as campaign issues; healso noted the “strategic nature”of bilateral ties, Turkish media reported.From Georgia, one of the fewcountries in the world where thepublic was more sympathetic to Sen.John McCain’s foreign policy approach,leader Mikheil Saakashvilialso highlighted positive expectationsfrom President-elect Obama.In televised remarks reported bywww.Civil.ge, Mr. Saakashvili citedMr. Obama’s supportive commentsand the role played by Vice President–electJoe Biden in securingthe pledge of $1 billion in U.S. assistanceto Georgia following theAugust war with Russia.A congratulatory telegram fromRussia’s President Dmitry Medvedevhad perhaps the most reservedtone. In a message posted to www.Kremlin.ru, Mr. Medvedev said he“counts on a constructive dialogue[with President Obama] based onAzerbaijan during the OSCE Ministerialin Madrid in November 2007,rather than the principles offered bythe mediators at that meeting. Ineffect the declaration leaves roomfor a substantial deviation from theso-called Madrid principles.The third point stresses the needfor “legally binding internationalguarantees of all . . . aspects andstages” of a peaceful settlement.The purpose of this point is not immediatelyclear. But it does mention“peaceful settlement” and “internationalguarantees” favored byArmenia, and “stages” favored byAzerbaijan.The fourth point reiterates thepresidents’ commitment to continuewith the settlement formatin place since 1999 – bilateral meetingsof the foreign ministers of Armeniaand Azerbaijan along withthe three co-chairs, with occasionalmeetings of the two presidents.The fifth point refers to the needfor “confidence-building measures.”Such measures have long been advocatedby Armenia and the mediators;but far from committing Azerbaijanto dropping its hate rhetoricand implementing such measures,the declaration only stresses theimportance of “promoting the creationof conditions” for the implementationof such measures.The absence of any possibly controversialpassage from the declarationconfirms the impression thatthe Russian mediators wanted verymuch to have the Armenian andAzerbaijani presidents sign a jointdeclaration at the end of the summitinitiated by Russia.Vahan Hovhannesian. Photo: Photolure.trust and consideration of eachother’s interests” in order to promotebilateral cooperation “for thecause of international peace andsecurity.”U.S. diplomats,Armeniancommentators disagreeon trends in U.S.Caucasus policyAlthough Barack Obama ran withthe slogan “The change we need,”American diplomats posted in theCaucasus say they do not expectU.S.’ regional priorities to change.The Democratic candidate renewedhis pledge on the ArmenianGenocide and stronger relationswith Armenia in a statement releasedon the eve of the election.Nevertheless, the Regnum newsagency cited a spokesperson for theU.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan, TerryDavidson, telling Azerbaijanis“not to fear” Mr. Obama’s pledgesto speak clearly on the ArmenianGenocide, and promising continuityin U.S. regional policy.An importantmilestoneAlthough largely devoid of meaningfulcommitment to a peacefulsettlement, the declaration is neverthelesshistorically important,since only twice before have leadersof Armenia and Azerbaijan signeddeclarations committing themselvesto finding a settlement ofthe Karabakh conflict.The first was a joint communiqué(declaration) signed on September23, 1991, in Zhelznovodsk,Russia, by Presidents Levon Ter-Petrossian and Ayaz Mutalibov,with President Boris Yeltsin ofRussia and President NursultanNazarbayev of Kazakhstan. Thatdeclaration pledged a cease-fireand the annulment of both Armenia’sdecision to reunify with Karabakhand of Azerbaijan’s decisionto abolish Karabakh’s autonomy;the declaration was followed by intensificationin violence and a fullscalewar in Karabakh.The last time Armenian and Azerbaijaniheads of state signed a jointdeclaration was in Tehran on May7, 1992. That declaration was signedby President Ter-Petrossian, Azerbaijan’sacting president YaqubMamedov, and Iran’s PresidentAli Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.The declaration was followed by thefirst major Armenian military successin Karabakh – the liberation ofShushi – and the subsequent overthrowof Mr. Mamedov.President Ter-Petrossian andPresident Heydar Aliyev later accededto declarations by the headsBut Ruben Safrastian, a Yerevan-basedTurkey expert, cautionedagainst expectations that the UnitedStates could influence Armenian-Turkish relations. He said, “Turkey’sapproach toward Armenia can onlychange through a fundamental reassessmentof the priorities of theTurkish elite, which needs considerabletime to play out.”At the same time, Mr. Safrastianremained hopeful that changes inU.S. policy under the new presidentwould occur. In particular, U.S. affirmationof the Armenian Genocidewill now be “more realistic” andwould contribute to strengtheningof U.S.-Armenia relations, he said.Vahan Hovhannesian, a NationalAssembly member from theARF, similarly suggested that theelection result provides Armenian-American organizations with “newserious opportunities for promotingArmenian interests.”of state of the Commonwealth ofIndependent States (CIS) in Moscowin April 1994 and the Conferencefor Security and Cooperationin Europe (CSCE) in Budapest inDecember 1994 that called for effortsto achieve a peaceful settlementof the Karabakh conflict,which continue to this day.The May 1994 cease-fire agreement,mediated by Russia, wassigned by the speakers of parliamentof Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the Nagorno-KarabakhRepublic, and subsequentlyendorsed by the defenseministers of the three republics.Russian leadershipMore than anything, the MeiendorfCastle declaration of November 2sought to underscore the leadershiprole played by Russia in theSouth Caucasus.Early international mediation effortsin the Karabakh conflict weremarked by competition betweenRussia and the West over who wasbest suited to help reach an agreementand, by extension, lead apeacekeeping mission in Karabakh.By 1994 a compromise solution wasfound, where Russia would co-chairthe CSCE (later OSCE) Minsk Group,with European countries rotating asthe other co-chair every year.In early 1997, Russia agreed to afurther compromise, establishing apermanent troika of France, Russia,and the United States. A June23, 1997, declaration by PresidentsJacques Chirac, Boris Yeltsin,and Bill Clinton in Denver (duringa G8 Economic Summit) gavehigh-level political support to theMoscow declaration onKarabakh welcomed,analyzed in the WestAlthough France and the UnitedStates were not involved in draftingof the Moscow declaration on thesettlement of the Karabakh conflict,the document is nevertheless“totally supported” by the UnitedStates, Deputy Assistant Secretaryof State and envoy to the Karabakhtalks Matt Bryza told Azerbaijanimedia on November 2 and 3.Mr. Bryza and his French colleaguewere invited to the summitbetween the Russian, Armenian,and Azerbaijan presidents, but apparentlywere kept out of the trilateraltalks held near Moscow on November2, Mr. Bryza told the TrendNews Agency.While hosting Azerbaijan’s PresidentIlham Aliyev in Ankara onNovember 5, his Turkish counterpartAbdullah Gül similarly expressedsupport for the declaration.A statement by the Turkish ForeignMinistry carried by news agencieson November 6 similarly expressedAnkara’s desire to “contribute” tothe conflict’s settlement via mediationby France, Russia, and theUnited States.While most Western commentatorssought to downplay thedeclaration’s importance, RadioFree Europe/Radio Liberty’s leadingCaucasus expert Liz Fuller describedit as a “victory for Armenia.”In a November 3 analysis, she particularlynoted that while PresidentAliyev previously threatened waragainst Armenia, has now pledgeda political solution to the issue.Writing for Eurasianet.org onNovember 4, the Russia-skepticStephen Blank noted that while“Moscow’s opposition to the use offorce can be justified for many reasons,but it also is probably the onlyway Baku could ever stand a realisticchance of recovering its lost lands.All of this means that Russia has imposedlimits on Azerbaijan’s negotiatingposition, leaving Baku in an extremelydisadvantageous position.”Azerbaijan ceased issuing publicthreats of going to war after the Georgianattack on South Ossetia resultedin a massive response by Russia.A report by the InternationalCrisis Group (ICG) on October 29suggested that even though Azerbaijanhad spent some $4.5 billionon its armed forces in recent years,“for now at least, the delicate militarybalance with Armenia probablystill holds.”The ICG report also complainedabout the lack of even basic publicoversight over Azerbaijani governmentspending, but noted that “amodern and efficient army, even ifsubject to democratic, civilian control,is not unproblematic while theloss of Nagorno-Karabakh remainsdeeply resented.”fRussia brokers Armenia-Azerbaijan declaration on Karabakhformat that continues to this day.After the failure of the three troikaproposals in 1997–98 to achievea breakthrough, the United Statestook the initiative in the mediationprocess, brokering a direct meetingbetween Presidents Heydar Aliyevand Robert Kocharian in April1999 during the NATO Summit inWashington. That effort culminatedin the near-agreement at KeyWest, Florida, in April 2001.Following the U.S. attempts, itwas Mr. Chirac’s turn to hold Armenia-Azerbaijansummits. But ahigh-level meeting between PresidentsKocharian and Ilham Aliyevat Rambouillet in February 2006and other France-led efforts alsofailed to produce a breakthrough.Significantly, neither U.S. norFrench efforts produced any jointdeclarations, even of the watereddownkind made at the Russianpresident’s Meiendorf castle.Likely impactAt this time, the Karabakh standoffoffers no attractive solutionsto either Armenia or Azerbaijan.The most recent effort by Russia isunlikely to contribute to an actualsettlement, since such settlementpresents both the sides and mediatorswith more problems than thecurrent status quo.The peace process serves as akind of a pressure release valve inthe uneasy and dangerous standoffover Karabakh. The Moscowdeclaration can provide this processwith a fresh lease on life, makingthe existing relative peace just alittle more durable.f