Modeling Stability and Reconstruction Operation ... - Cornwallis Group

CHATURVEDI ET AL.: MODELING STABILITY AND RECONSTRUCTION OPERATION USING SEAS 241minimalist approach. Greater availability of resources increases criminal and terroristactivities as money, medical supplies, and food are siphoned off to black markets for profits.These profits in turn finance the criminal and terrorist activities. This cycle, in turn, hasdetrimental effect on the stability and reconstruction operation.It is interesting to note that the main difference between the two strategies is in the peaklevels of sickness in the affected camp and stabilizes at approximately the same level. Thisresult has clear policy, humanitarian, and moral implications. These implications are moreevident when we analyze the number of deaths in the camp as shown in Figure 7. Maximaliststrategy reduces the number of deaths by 33% over the minimalist approach. The issue againis how the resource can be or should be allocated to mitigate the suffering of the affectedpopulace.Figure 7: Impact of Intervention Strategies on the number of Deaths from Sickness inthe aftermath of Earthquake.IMPACT OF INTERVENTION STRATEGIES ON PUBLIC OPINIONSAs shown in Figure 8, the impact of intervention strategies on local to global public opinionsis counter-intuitive. Maximalist approach actually does worse than the minimalist approach.Maximalist approach, over a longer period of time, increases criminal and terrorist activitiesresulting in decline in favorable public opinion, especially among the citizens of Afghanistan.Figure 8: Impact of Intervention Strategies on Public Opinions.