Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE ...

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemSupporting Real-Time Air QualityForecasting using the SMOKEmodeling systemMay 1, 2001Jeffrey M. Vukovichvukovich@mcnc.orgJohn McHenry, Carlie Coats, Atanas TrayanovMCNC________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemOverview! Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions(SMOKE) modeling system history! Real-Time Ozone Forecasting System (RTOFS)history! RTOFS 2000! High-level data flows for RTOFS! Emissions modeling issues! Application of the RTOFS 2000 modeling system! Future plans and benefitsMCNC2________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemRTOFS History! First ozone forecast made by Penn St./MCNC in1998 for a 36-km horizontal resolution grid overnortheastern U.S.! 1999 ozone forecasts also included 45km gridover eastern U.S. and a 15km grid over Texas! Modeling systems included SMOKE, Fifth-Generation Penn St/NCAR MesoscaleModel(MM5), and Multiscale Air Quality SimulationPlatform (MAQSIP).! Forecasts were conducted quasi-continuously ina timely manner once a dayMCNC4________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemRTOFS 2000! MCNC applies SMOKE-MM5-MAQSIP for a 45kmgrid over the eastern U.S. , 15km grid over easternTexas and surrounding states, and a 5km grid overHouston! Ozone forecasts generated twice daily (00Z and12Z)! SMOKE forecasts generated twice daily includedbiogenic, area/non-road, mobile and point sourceemissions which are merged and input intoMAQSIP! Forecasts and information posted at:http://envpro.mcnc.org/projects/SECMEPMCNC5________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemRTOFS 2000 45km and 15km gridsMCNC6________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemRTOFS 2000 5km gridMCNC7________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemHigh-level data flowsMCNC8________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemSMOKE Modeling Issues: Point! NEI 1996 version 3.11 and OTAG offshoreinventories(EMS95 format), and TX SIP 1996inventory (EPS2 format) used! SMOKE prototype version used! No projection to year 2000 made! Emissions allowed to vary weekday, Saturday,Sunday and Monday (GMT issue) BUT not allowedto vary month to month! Forecast meteorological data used to verticallyallocate point source emissionsMCNC9________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemPNTSMET3DPGMATPSMATPTMPLAYPOINTPLAYCSGLDAYMRGPSMAT= Speciation MatrixPGMAT=Gridding MatrixPTMP= Temporal FactorsPNTS=Imported InventoryMET3D= 3-D MM5 dataPLAY= Layer FractionsLGTS= 3-D Gridded PointSourcesLGTSMCNC10________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemSMOKE Modeling Issues:Area/Nonroad! NEI 1996 inventory (EMS95 format) used! SMOKE prototype used! No projection to year 2000 made! Emissions allowed to vary weekday, Saturday,Sunday and Monday (GMT issue) BUT not allowedto vary month to month! No meteorological dependency so no new dataneeded to be calculated for each forecast!MCNC11________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemSMOKE Modeling Issues: Mobile! SMRAQ 1995 inventory used including Mobile5binput files! SMOKE prototype used! 1995 VMT data used; no projection to year 2000! MM5 temperature forecasts used to forecastmobile emissions twice daily! Minor component of VOC emissions dependenton max/min temperature; this assumed constantover summer but allowed to vary spatiallyMCNC12________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemMTREFMTPROMUMATMVMTMMOBLTKDATTMPMOBILMTMPMVMTM= VMT DATAMTREF= TEMPORAL XREFMTPRO= TEMPORAL PROFILESMUMAT=UNGRIDDING MATRIXMOBL= IMPORTED INVENTORYTKDAT= TEMPERATURE DATAMTMP= TEMPORAL FACTORSMGMAT=GRIDDING MATRIXMSMAT=SPECIATION MATRIXMGTS=GRIDDED MOBIL EMISMGMATCSGMOBILMGTSMSMATMCNC13________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemSMOKE Modeling Issues: Biogenic! Biogenic Emissions Landcover Database version3 (BELD3) used to produce land use for SMOKE! SMOKE-Biogenic Emissions Inventory Systemversion 2 (SMOKE-BEIS2) used! MM5 first layer temperature (~20m) forecasts usedto estimate biogenic emissions! MM5 solar radiation forecasts also used toforecast isoprene emissionsMCNC14________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemBGRDGSPROMET2DTMPBIOBGRD=NORMALIZED EMISGSPRO=SPECIATION PROFILESMET2D= 2-D MM5 DATABGTS= GRIDDED BIOG EMISBGTSMCNC15________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemApplication of RTOFS 2000! 48 hour forecast for the 45km grid twice dailystarting at 0Z and 12Z! 24 hour forecast for the 15km grid twice dailystarting at 8Z and 21Z! 12 hour forecast for the 5km grid once daily (11-23Z)! Successfully generated forecasts for the TexasAir Quality Study 2000 (TXAQS 2000) for TNRCCfor Aug 15 – Sept 15! The MAQSIP forecasts were one of many toolsused to determine where to send aircraftMCNC16________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemApplication of RTOFS 2000 cont’! 45km forecasts used by some state and localagencies as a tool for generating air qualityforecasts (AIRNOW)! Preliminary evaluation carried out the 5kmHouston gridMCNC17________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemMonitor site aggregateddifferences of daily valuesMCNC18________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemFuture Plans! RTOFS 2001– Starts ASAP (hardware)– SMOKE version 1.3– Display emissions forecasts on website– Update inventory data; possibly project to 2001– Use SMOKE-BEIS3 prototype and MOBILE6 (?)– Additional nested grids over sections of U.S.! Forecasting prototype for Particulate Matter (PM)sometime in 2002MCNC19________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemForecasting Benefits (present andfuture)! Continued daily use of air quality modelingsystems will improve our understanding of thestrengths and weaknesses of the models! Continued use as a tool for intensive monitoringprograms! Continued use as a tool for government agenciesto produce air quality forecasts for publicdissemination! Could generate alternative forecasts to simulatecontrol strategies (e.g. OADs) that may give policymakers ideas on how to reduce ozone over theforecast periodMCNC20________________________________________________________Environmental Programs

____________Supporting Real-Time Air Quality Forecasting using the SMOKE modeling systemMore informationForecast information website:http://envpro.mcnc.org/services/realtime/index.htmlOther related publications:http://envpro.mcnc.org/pub_filesMCNC21________________________________________________________Environmental Programs