NUREG/CR-6850, Volume 1 - NRC

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Overview of the Fire PRA Methodology2.4 References for Chapter 22.1 Fire PRA Implementation Guide, EPRI, December 1995. TR-105928(including Supplement: EPRI SU-105928).2.2 Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG-1150,U.S. NRC, Washington, DC, 1990.2.3 Procedures for the External Event Core Damage Frequency Analyses for NUREG-1150,NUREG/CR-4840, U.S. NRC, Washington, DC, 1990.2-10
3CONCLUSIONS AND CLOSING REMARKS3.1 Status of Program ObjectivesThe principal objective of this project was to document the methodology and the technical basesfor conducting a Fire PRA that would clarify issues affecting application of fire risk methods.Specific objectives of this effort, and the current status of work efforts relative to each objective,are summarized as follows.• “Develop methodology for conducting a Fire PRA at nuclear plants. This methodologywill provide insights regarding the applicability of results generated using earlier Fire PRAmethods, tools, and data; the Fire PRA technical issues identified in past NPP Fire PRAs;and practical limitations and constraints in the application of the NRC and EPRI researchresults.”The methods documented here make significant improvements over the most recent EPRIand NRC methods published over a decade ago. This method represents the current state-ofthe-artfor conduct of a Fire PRA. The primary focus of the methods development efforts wasconsolidation of existing methods, tools, and data. In some areas, the new methods includeimprovements that went well beyond simple consolidation, but rather needed collectionand analysis of new or expanded data and/or development of new models, approaches, andtechniques. In other areas, e.g., development of a detailed post-fire HRA methodology, thelevel of effort necessary to establish substantial advancements in the state-of-the-art wasbeyond the scope and time limitations of this project.• “Develop state-of-the-art fire risk estimates that reflect the use of the improved Fire PRAmethods, tools, and data developed since publication of the EPRI FIVE and Fire PRAmethods”, and• “Determine the qualitative and quantitative impact on predicted fire risk associated withthe use of these improved Fire PRA methods, tools, and data.”Critical technical tasks documented in this report were tested individually during pilotdemonstration studies. These demonstration studies were intended to ensure the viability andreasonableness of the recommended methods, assess their ease of application, and assess theadequacy of the documentation. It had been intended that the pilot plants would follow throughwith the balance of their plant analyses and provide feedback and risk insights to the TechnicalDevelopment Teams. Neither of the two pilot plants completed their full analyses. Based on thedemonstration studies performed, quantitative risk insights are limited to specific analysistasks. No global insights related to plant-wide fire risk estimates or the relative ranking of riskcontributors have yet been gained. In the absence of a full application of the recommendedprocedures, the authors are unable to predict their impact on overall fire risk estimates with high3-1
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