System-of-Systems Engineering - Liophant Simulation

Probabilistic Analysis on Your Desktop• The use of probabilitydistributions in designapplications was oncecumbersome and timeconsuming• Desktop tools + faster computersmake probabilistic techniquesaffordable and effective fordesign• Probabilistic assessments (oncebeyond reach) provide decisionmakers with additionalinformation to quantifyuncertainty and riskf-102⎡1⎢1⎡⎛a − µ ⎞y⎢⎜1=exp⎟ −222πσ− ⎢2− 2 ⎢yσ 11 yρ ρ2⎣ ⎣⎝σy1⎠y21y2µσ-20µ CO2 = -16%σ CO2 = 4.3%Histogram ofDataAssumingNormalDistributionsµσ-90 -70 -50 -30 -10µ NOx = -61%σ NOx = 19.8%2⎛ a − µ ⎞⎛⎞ ⎛ ⎞ ⎤⎤yb − µ −⎜1yb µ⎟⎜2y⎟ + ⎜2ρ⎟ ⎥⎥⎝ σy ⎠⎝σ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠ ⎥⎥1yσ2y2⎦⎦Probabilistic techniques must be applied to all deterministic design toolsDeveloping Methods and Techniques for System of Systems EngineeringDr. Dimitri Mavris, dimitri.mavris@ae.gatech.edu48