Orbital Debris - NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey Studies

Other Disposal Requirements toConsiderM i s s i o n D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r yUpdated requirement, per NASA-STD-8719.14 Revision A:• If risk to human life > 0.0001 (1:10,000), then controlled reentry must be performed and theprobability of failure of the reentry burn must be included in the risk calculation:Risk of human casualty = DCA x Population density x Probability of failure of reentry burn• The Probability of failure (P f ) of reentry burn can not exceed 0.10 per Requirement 4.6-4.a.DebrisCasualtyArea(m2)14 – 18 May, 2012PACE 2012Probabilityof failure ofreentry burn Reliability8 0.946305 0.0536959 0.841160 0.15884010 0.757044 0.24295611 0.688222 0.31177812 0.630870 0.36913013 0.582342 0.41765814 0.540746 0.45925415 0.504696 0.49530416 0.473153 0.52684717 0.445320 0.55468018 0.420580 0.57942019 0.398444 0.60155620 0.378522 0.621478• Per Req. 4.6-4.b, for a DCA = 11 m 2 , the maximumProbability of Success (Reliability) is 0.3118, which is lessthan 0.90. For this reason, the limit imposed by Req. 4.6-4.b takes precedence, and the minimum Probability ofSuccess = 0.90.Do not distribute this information without permissionfrom Betsy Edwards/NASA-HQ (betsy.edwards@nasa.gov)Orbital Debris, p5Final Version