Global Talent 2021 - Oxford Economics

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Global Talent 2021How the new geography of talent will transform human resource strategiesMeanwhile, labor shortages are projected to appear in many mature markets, includingthe US, Germany, Canada and Italy, in part because of their aging populations andbecause much of their population is already relatively well-educated, offering lessroom for meaningful improvement. Faced with recession and budget constraints inthe wake of the 2008 economic crisis, many of these countries will fall further behindin the race between education and technology.Figure 8: The mismatch between supply and demand for talent in 2021Strongest trendtalent surplusDemand and supply fortalent in balanceStrongest trendtalent deficitIndiaIndonesiaColombiaSouth AfricaBrazilMoroccoCzech Rep.EgyptQatarPeruCosta RicaBahrainUAEPhillippinesSource: Oxford EconomicsSaudi ArabiaBarbadosMalaysiaKuwaitOmanBermudaChinaArgentinaMexicoRussiaSpainSwitzerlandAustriaNetherlandsSwedenAustraliaNorwayThailandSingaporeGermanyFrance2.11.51.11.01.00.80.80.70.60.60.50.40.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.9-1.0-1.1-1.2-1.4-1.5Notes1. The table ranks countries according to how their talent gaps are expected to evolve over the next decade.2. Talent deficits are shown as red (negative numbers), talent surpluses as green (positive numbers), andbroad balance as yellow.3. Numbers report the average annual % change of the deficit/surplus.TurkeyCanadaSouth KoreaGreeceUKUSAChileItalyPolandJapanTaiwanA closer examination of two major economies, India and China, help illustrate thedynamic forces at work in this new landscape for talent. On our “heat map” outliningthe projected balance of supply and demand for skilled labor, China is shown inbalance: Its heavy investment in education will enable it to meet its talent needsand sustain its rapid economic development, even as its population growth levelsoff and its population begins to age. Its projected 4.6% annual increase in collegeeducatedtalent will roughly match its economic growth.“In China we don’tencounter a problem interms of ‘supply.’ Theissue for us and manymultinationals is how tofoster their loyalty andengagement longer-term.”Randall Bradford, InternationalVice President for HumanResources, MedtronicFor Medtronic, the world’s largest medical technology company and maker ofpacemakers, defibrillators, stents and other medical devices, China is expected tosomeday become the firm’s largest single market. Randall Bradford, InternationalVice President for Human Resources, says the firm has found the market forqualified workers very rich: “In China we don’t encounter a problem in terms of‘supply.’ There is plenty of well-educated talent there. The issue for us and manymultinationals is how to foster their loyalty and engagement longer-term.”India, by contrast, is projected to top the country rankings in terms of its surplusof educated talent. This surplus results from its young and rapidly growing pool ofworkers and some educational improvements (although much less dramatic thanin neighboring China). While India’s pool of college-educated talent is expectedto rise more than 45 million in 10 years, it will exceed that which can be absorbedby the Indian economy. This will compress the wage premium for talent, allowingfor investment in new technologies and business models that will fuel growth wellbeyond 2021.10OXFORD ECONOMICS
Global Talent 2021How the new geography of talent will transform human resource strategiesFigure 9: Employment growth in IndiaChange in employment by sector since 2008 (in 000s)160001400012000100008000AgricultureConstructionManufacturingTradeOther services6000400020000-200020082009201020112012Japan is already experiencing a decline in overall population, while its demand fortalent will increase modestly. Its supply of educated talent will expand by only 0.4%over the decade. Since Japan’s economy is largely closed to immigration of largenumbers of skilled managers and technicians, the net result is that Japan’s talentdeficit is expected to be second largest in 2021 among the nations studied. Indeed,nine of the 10 countries projected to experience the most pronounced talent deficitswill be industrialized nations.Figure 10: Global Heat MapThe gap between the growth in demand and the growth in supply of talent, 2011 to 2021(Red indicates a trend deficit, green a trend surplus, yellow a broad balance. Numbers show trend growth as annual percentages.)-0.9-0.8-0.10.51.10.1-0.2-0.5-0.8 -0.4 -0.4-0.6 -1.20.8-0.4 -0.6-0.4 -0.4-1.10.70.80.90.70.2 2.1-0.2-0.10.0-0.6-1.4-0.9-1.50.20.61.00.41.5-1.0-0.11.0-0.511OXFORD ECONOMICS
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Global Talent 2021 - Oxford Economics

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