challenges and opportunities - Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts ...

Climate change impacts, adaptationand mitigation in eastern Ontario:challenges and opportunitiesDr. Robert McLemanAssociate ProfessorDepartment of GeographyUniversity of Ottawa

Income ($)Rural incomesAddington Highlands township – an extreme case2001 Income of Population 15 Years and Over$60,000 and over$50,000 - $59,999$45,000 - $49,999$40,000 - $44,999$35,000 - $39,999$30,000 - $34,999$25,000 - $29,999$20,000 - $24,999$15,000 - $19,999$12,000 - $14,999$10,000 - $11,999$ 7,000 - $ 9,999$ 5,000 - $ 6,999$ 3,000 - $ 4,999$ 1,000 - $ 2,999Under $1,0000 50 100 150 200 250 300Number of People

Capital value of farms, 2006%Source: OMAFRA http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/stats/county/eastern_ontario.pdf

% farmsGross farm receipts, 2006Source: OMAFRA http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/stats/county/eastern_ontario.pdf

% farmsFarm types, 2006Source: OMAFRA http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/stats/county/eastern_ontario.pdf

Millions $Farm revenues, Eastern Ontario2009Source: OMAFRA http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/stats/county/eastern_ontario.pdf

Eastern Ontario agriculture,overall picture• Mostly small, family farms; not many living“off the barn” (i.e. much income comes fromoff-farm work)• A lot of pasture & hay, small corn/soyoperations (only ½ of total farm area is incrops)• Not a lot of heavy irrigators• Biggest revenue farms are dairy, but theserepresent ~15% of farms• Forestry important sector as well

Climatic trends, last 2-3 decades, fromanecdotal & partial data• Shorter, milder, less snowy winters, springcoming earlier• Summer temperatures hovering in upper endof historical range, fewer cool summers• Microbursts frequent

19561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006Day pulled OutSugar bush recordsHasler Farm Maple Sugar BushDate taps removed from trees, by year13012512011511010510095908580Year

1880189019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000Temperature ( o C)Hot, dry summers more frequent20Average Monthly Means for May, June, July and August (1882-2006)Bancroft data151050-5-10-15Year

Wind events

Changing fire risks?

Localized water-table worriesDry beaver pond, Addington Highlands ON, September 20

Ice storm, 1998• Impact on dairy operations, maple sugarbushes, orchards• Wheeler’s Maple products (Ontario’s largestproducer) lost 1/3 of their taps; many largetrees died in subsequent years or struggled toproduce

Extreme rainfall events, 1979-2004Relatively rare in EasternOntarioSource: NRCan national assessment

Eastern Ontario agriculture& climate change linkages?• Highly variable climate, large range acrossregion• Very different soils across region• Lots of small producers, differing farmcharacteristics• Many areas lack historical weather records• Difficult to model at local scales the types ofclimate events that concern rural populations

Climate change concerns of EasternOntario agriculturalists• Crop farmers are hopeful mild temperatureswill generally be beneficial• Worried about spread of pests, combinedheat/dry events, extreme weather events,storms• Mild winters: impacts on logging, snow & icetourism visits• Foresters, sugarbush operators worry aboutstress on commercially valuable hardwoodsFrom Sander-Regier et al 2010; McLeman 2010

Non-climatic stressors = cumulativelygreater, ongoing risk• Rising input prices (fuel, chemicals, fertilizers)• Fluctuations in commodity prices• These may be influenced by impacts ofclimate change elsewhere• Also US$ fluctuations – big impact on forestry• US import regulations – beef producers• Urban sprawl

Adaptation & mitigation• Priority for rural eastern Ontario = reduceexposure to climate & non-climate risksthrough income diversification• A number of opportunities for combinedadaptation & mitigation

Local food networks & agri-tourism• CSAs, farm-gate & farmers market sales• Co-ops• Shift to high-margin products, includingheritage varieties• Good adaptation benefits• Mitigation benefits? Small, but important

“Polyculture” CSA farming

Alternative energy• Significant uptake of solar due to FIT; wind &geothermal to lesser extent• Foresters exploring wood-chip fuel• Good combination adaptation & mitigation• Corn ethanol plant at Johnstown: good forcorn growers; actual mitigation questionable

Chip-fuel test in AddingtonHighlands

Small-scale forestry• Eastern Ontario Model Forest initiatives• Depressed prices real challenge at present• Always a market for firewood

Maple syrup• Strong growth industry• Good for biodiversity, watershed health• Still principally a family-type operation• Encourages maintenance of forests (good formitigation)

Innovative technologies• Enhance efficiency, marginal income fromongoing activities• Reduce exposure to climate uncertainty• Diversify income opportunities• Retain rural youth

Adaptation challenges• Farmers typically under-capitalized• Lack of off-farm employmentopportunities• Young people leaving, schoolsclosing• Aging population with poor healthcare• Lack of broadband & wirelessconnectivity hampers economicdevelopment

Community-level opportunities• Mobilize social capital• Engage citizenry in environmental monitoring• Getting schools involved

Opportunities for government(including CAs)• Trim government red tape(e.g. water, planningprocesses) while raisingawareness of gov’tprograms• Foster rural tourism(diversify rural economy)• Champion citizen science

Thanks! Merci!Robert McLemanAssociate Professore-mail: rmcleman@uottawa.caweb: http://www.geography.uottawa.ca/prof/rmcleman.htmblog: http://www.thisgeographicallife.blogspot.com