CoSt BENEfIt ANAlySIS of tHE UgANdA PoSt PRImARy EdUCAtIoN ...

Cost Benefit Analysis of the Uganda Post Primary Education and Training Expansion and Improvement (Ppetei) ProjectTable 6: Summary of sensitivity analysisScenario of reduction in benefitsBase 10% 20% 30%Total Benefit (US$ millions) 630 567 504 441Benefit Cost ratio 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2Internal Rate of Return 25% 23 21 18Scenario of delays in implementation ofthe projectBase 1 year 2 years 3yearsTotal Benefit (US$ millions) 630 450 300 180Benefit Cost ratio 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.1Internal Rate of Return 25% 21% 14% 4%However, the above results should be interpreted in the Ugandan context characterized bydemand side challenges—notably high school dropout rates and low school attendance. Forinstance, out of the 179,000 students enrolling in secondary school in 2003, only 40 percentmanaged to reach the last grade of secondary school by 2008 (MoES, 2008). The largestdropout is registered after four years of secondary schooling, where more than half of thestudents who attended the Senior Four do not proceed to Senior Five after sitting for theUganda Certificate of Education exams. Consequently, the results of our sensitivity analysisshould be interpreted in the context of significant potential dropout after four years—due toeither inadequate school fees or poor performance innational exams.Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC13