Prof. Pantelis Kapros

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The Reference Scenario• The Reference scenario analyses the impacts from fullimplementation of the EU legislative package for ETS,renewables and energy efficiency.• The scenario assumes that this legislation (both RES andETS) do not apply to the non EU countries of the SEE• As strong parallel policies develop, the EU-ETS carbonprices stay at lower levels than in Baseline, namely at 17EUR’08/tCO2 in 2020 and 36 EUR’08/tCO2 in 2030• Two alternative Reference scenarios explore• What if Renewables policies also apply to non EU countries• What if also EU ETS applies to the non EU countries of SEEE3MLab/NTUA - www.e3mlab.ntua.gr4
Implications on CO2 EmissionsCO2 Emissions from Energy in Mt1312111098765Albania20191817161514131211Bosnia272523211917Croatia85807570656055Serbia272523211917Croatia42005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030102005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030152005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030502005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030152005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Baseline Reference Reference with RES Reference with RES and ETS100959085Greece5048464442Bulgaria959085Romania450400350Turkey800750700SEE8040650757065383634328075300250600550602005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030702005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20305002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab/NTUA - www.e3mlab.ntua.gr5
Page 1 and 2: Prof. Pantelis CAPROS, E3MLab/NTUAP
Page 3: Long termProjection ofeconomic grow
Page 7 and 8: Impacts on the SEERES as % of Gross
Page 9 and 10: Impact of High Carbon PricesThe par
Page 11 and 12: Impact of High ETSPricesAs expected
Page 13 and 14: Concluding RemarksNuclear energy is

Prof. Pantelis Kapros

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