Effective Management Decision Making Language ... - Tutorsindia

Effective Management Decision MakingChapter 2We therefore need to modify the forecast values we have determined for (T) above in table 2.8, by the amount of differencefor each point in the seasonal cycle. This is worked out in this example by the simple Additive calculation of (Actual -Forecast (T)). Hence in table 2.9 below, the difference between the actual data observed and the trend forecast is determined.As this cycle of change in the data repeats itself with a period of 12, we can then take the average of the differences for thesame points in the cycle. This is shown by the column in table 2.9 headed ‘mean difference’. Hence the first value is themean of the values (-4.07, -6.57,-10.95,-3.03). Your final forecast is then the addition of the (T) forecast with the seasonal(S) modification. Hence the first final forecast value is found to be (T)+(S), which equals:Final forecast for January (n=1) = 7.07+ (-6.15) = 0.91If you repeat this calculation for all your months, including your new forecasts, you end up with table 2.9 and figure 2.17.I joined MITAS becauseI wanted real responsibiliThe Graduate Programmefor Engineers and GeoscientistsMaersk.com/MitasPlease click the advertReal workInternational al opportunitiesThree work placementsMonth 16I was aconstructionsupervisor inthe North Seaadvising andhelping foremensolve problems79Download free ebooks at bookboon.com