The Problem of Induction
The Problem of Induction
The Problem of Induction
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PHLA10 12<strong>The</strong> <strong>Problem</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Induction</strong>●<strong>Induction</strong> and reliability– We want our inductive knowledge to be secure– Let’s say that a reliable method <strong>of</strong> inference is one thatusually leads to the truth● ‘usually’ can be thought <strong>of</strong> as a scale, from the notvery reliable to the highly reliable– examples: prediction <strong>of</strong> solar eclipses (highlyreliable) to weather prediction (not highly rel.)● This scale can be expressed in terms <strong>of</strong> probability– <strong>The</strong> probability <strong>of</strong> an eclipse given what we knowabout Sun, Earth and Moon is virtually 1– <strong>The</strong> probability <strong>of</strong> rain next week given ourcurrent knowledge is slightly more than ½– Sober’s version <strong>of</strong> the problem <strong>of</strong> induction● How do we know that induction in general is areliable way to get knowledge?
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