An Independent Review of World Bank Support to ... - DAG Ethiopia

increasing proportions for personnel costs and less funding for materials, while theshare of administrative spending in both sectors have been increasing. 174.39 In aggregate, there have been impressive improvements in performance of servicedelivery in terms of physical access in roads, health and education. Quality of service hasimproved mainly in roads (condition of network), with some deterioration seen ineducation. The developments in public financial management are more mixed.4.40 There is a high degree of correlation between effectiveness of Bank support andperformance of the sectors, but it is not possible to directly attribute sector performanceto the Bank’s support. The existence of large sector development programs, andparticularly the agreement on priorities and means in the roads sector, could explain someof this correlation. In the PFM area, no sector development program approach has beenestablished and there have been frequent disagreements between the Government and thedonors (including the Bank) on issues and priorities.Future prospects4.41 In terms of the future, several initiatives have been taken to implement thecapacity building strategy spelled out in the 2003 CAS. In the education sector, a newoperation for capacity building in post-primary education is in an advanced stage ofpreparation, and in the roads sector, a new operation has been launched in 2003.Similarly the major PSCAP project has been prepared and approved recently. Capacitybuilding objectives in the roads sector (possibly also in education) as set out in the 2003CAS are likely to be achieved in the relatively short term, building on the substantialexperience gained in the sector over the past decade.4.42 On public sector reform, prospects are more uncertain. The institutionaldestabilization created by the massive decentralization reform, lack of results from pilotcapacity building activities under CBDSD, and the lack of a clear approach to deal withinsufficient capacity at entry suggest that PSCAP could take a long time to deliverexpected results. Moreover, it will be hard to say when the objectives have been achievedsince baselines and targets for the objective indicators have not been specified. Wherecapacity gains have been achieved with Bank support, they appear likely to be sustained.The achievements in the roads sector appear technically, financially and organizationallysustainable. Since 2001, the procurement reform also appears to receive full governmentsupport, which will be the main determinant for sustainability. In other areas, the capacitygains achieved so far have been limited.17 It should be noted that desirable levels, trends, and trade-offs in such expenditure indicators are notuniversally agreed and the Ethiopian government could argue that it has made the best choices in a numberof cases.24