climate-change--a-risk-assessment-v9-spreads

36 CLIMATE CHANGE: A RISK ASSESSMENTCLIMATE CHANGE: A RISK ASSESSMENT37RISK ASSESSMENT PART 1: WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF FOLLOWING A HIGH EMISSIONS PATHWAY?RISK ASSESSMENT PART 1: WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF FOLLOWING A HIGH EMISSIONS PATHWAY?demand for steel, transport, and energy for cooking and household electricity, are all likely to grow by at leasta multiple of three between now and 2047 (the 100 th year of India’s independence). Adoption of efficientbuilding codes, a shift to public transport, and adoption of electric vehicles and efficient devices, could allmoderate India’s emission intensity.Similarly on the supply side, while coal is expected to remain the major source of energy for heavy industryand for electricity generation, the share of renewables and gas, and electrification of the energy sector holdlarge promises. Both grid-connected and decentralized renewable energy sources have the potential tocontribute to meeting the electricity and cooking energy needs of the poor (while as a co-benefit, encouragingrural entrepreneurship). 7 In the transportation sector, a combination of demand and supply side interventionsin this area (reduced demand for transport by better urban planning and use of electric vehicles and publictransport) could moderate energy consumption. The share of electricity in primary energy supply, as well ascontribution from renewables, could rise from the present 16% to 22%, and from 4% to 29%, respectively, toachieve a lower carbon intensity by 2047.Two initiatives are particularly worth highlighting. The first relates to the National Mission on EnergyEfficiency. India has already launched the innovative Perform, Achieve and Trade scheme, mandatingenergy efficiency targets for plants and factories in eight industrial sectors, failing which they would needto purchase additional energy savings certificates from over-performers (2015 will be the first year oftrading). Efficiency will also be a major driver for residential appliances via the Super-Efficient EquipmentProgram, which was launched in 2013. Efficiency considerations will also impact the adoption of alternativechemicals and technologies for air conditioning and refrigeration in residential and commercial buildings. Thegovernment has also developed plans for demand-side management in municipalities to decrease their energyconsumption.The second policy initiative is the Indian government’s goals for renewable energy. In a total installedcapacity of more than 35 gigawatts of renewable energy (excluding large hydropower), wind power accountsfor nearly 23 gigawatts. The National Solar Mission was launched in 2010 and more than 4 gigawattshave been deployed. But more recently, the government has announced plans to install 175 gigawatts ofrenewables-based electricity-generating capacity by 2022, including 100 gigawatts of solar power. Meetingthe solar target alone will require a growth rate equivalent to doubling India’s installed solar capacity every18 months. It will also require a clear understanding of the three factors that drive energy demand in India(access, security, and efficiency); new federal and state policies and incentives; innovative financing forcapital investments estimated at $100 billion or more; and additional funding for manufacturing, training, andjob creation. Project developers will have to grapple with the cost and availability of land, grid connections,and backup power. 8Overall, there is enormous potential for India to reduce the energy intensity of its economy and the emissionsintensity of its energy sector, as energy consumption increases over the next three decades. In particular, thedecreasing costs of solar photovoltaics may be particularly helpful for India to limit the expansion of coalconsumption, given its high solar potential. At the same time, it is important to acknowledge that India’s GDPhad been growing annually at a near 9% growth rate in the past, with a slowing down in recent years. Indiaaims at growing above 7% annually in the 12 th Five Year Plan period (2012-17) and a long term compoundannual growth rate of 7% in the coming decades, too. The power sector is registering a near 10% generationcapacity growth annually, with both fossil fuel and renewable energy based capacities being a part of thisgrowth. India cannot afford to postpone its development for the sake of carbon reduction goals, and thusoverall emissions from India are likely to rise substantially in the coming decades. India can partially temperthis growth in emissions with adoption of efficiency in use of energy, and promote low carbon strategieseven when locking in investments in related infrastructure. A co-benefits approach towards moderate carbonstrategy will also be helpful in curbing energy imports, by replacing imported energy by local resources suchas solar and wind power. 9A Global Perspective on Emissions over the Next Three DecadesWhat do these different perspectives from these four regions mean for the likelihood of different emissionsscenarios? Current progress in the European Union and in the United States in reducing emissionsis encouraging, but the rate of change is not compatible with low emissions scenarios. Similarly, theannouncement that China’s emissions will peak by 2030 is very important for avoiding the high emissionsscenarios, but still not sufficient for achieving the low emissions scenarios. Perhaps the most importantnews is the growth of renewable energy installations around the world, and the concomitant reduction ofrenewable energy prices. If India and other developing countries (e.g. those in sub-Saharan Africa) are ableto expand their use of renewables more rapidly than expected, then the high emissions scenarios are unlikelyto occur. But it remains uncertain whether renewables will be able to continue their trajectory as higher levelsof penetration are achieved, when countries face the challenge of intermittency of supply and the difficulttechnical challenge of energy storage.The low emissions scenarios that have a high probability of limiting warming to less than 2°C will notbe possible unless the EU achieves its goal of an 80% reduction by mid century, the U.S. and China bothaccelerate their progress, dramatically reducing their coal consumption in the next two decades, and Indiadisplaces its anticipated increase in coal consumption with an expansion of solar and other renewables.Other countries and regions must follow suit, with non-fossil technologies ultimately becoming disruptive forsupporting economic development goals.6 TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES THAT WILLDETERMINE FUTURE GLOBAL EMISSIONSAnother approach to placing constraints on the likelihood of different global emissions trajectories is toevaluate different emissions scenarios through the rate of technological change and energy infrastructureinvestment. Quantitative modelling of low-carbon energy systems for different countries allows one toidentify a series of technological innovations or infrastructure investments that must be made to enablereducing emissions to near-zero levels. In the following section, we ask a series of questions that relate toenergy innovation and low-carbon energy systems. For any individual country, there are an infinite number ofpossible combinations of different technologies and approaches, and these are likely to vary across differentcountries and regions. Thus, not every one of the questions about technological innovations and investmentsdiscussed below must be answered in the affirmative to achieve near-zero emissions for the world. However,the modelling makes it clear that many of these innovations will ultimately be required, although the exactcontribution from each one remains uncertain.One important aspect of this approach is to evaluate a nation’s energy system by sector. For example,energy for the transportation sector around the world is supplied almost entirely by petroleum. Replacingthe petroleum with non-greenhouse gas emitting alternatives requires not only a technology for passengervehicles (e.g. electric vehicles with batteries), but also a technology for replacing diesel fuel for freighttransport, for which batteries are unlikely to be sufficient, and also a technology to replace jet fuel. Ratherthan specifying particular technologies in the following discussion, we chose instead to discuss very broadcategories of technological solutions, allowing for the potential for technological surprises. At the same time,the quantitative modelling of emissions scenarios, both for the world and for individual countries, makes itclear that we can distinguish between the low and high emissions scenarios in terms of the timescales overwhich energy innovation must occur, and also the timescales of energy infrastructure investment.1. Can high penetration wind and solar be managed at large scale, using storage, demandmanagement, backup, and other approaches? Will the cost of renewables decline sufficiently todrive the world’s electricity systems to become dominated by renewable energy?Over the last decade, there has been enormous progress in reducing the costs of wind and solar power.Onshore wind, in good locations, is now directly competitive with fossil sources of electricity (i.e. coaland natural gas). Around the world, we have seen the growth of wind as a percentage in overall electricitygeneration for countries such as Ireland (19%), Aruba (20%), and Denmark (28%), as well as regionswithin countries, such as Iowa (30%). Offshore wind has been deployed in countries like Denmark and theUK, although it remains a much more expensive option relative to onshore wind installations. Progressin reducing the cost of solar photovoltaics has been particularly dramatic, starting with Germany’saggressive policies of feed-in tariffs, leading to about 6% of their generating capacity supplied by solarpower in 2014, and then followed by policies around the world that are driving large-scale installationsin China, the U.S. (particularly California), and southern Europe. Coupled with the rapid expansion ininstallation have come advances in manufacturing around the world, particularly in China, that have