Is there a market for Vietnam offshore gas? - The Lantau Group

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GWh
Imported coal is the “swing resource” in the generation mix
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
• Domestic coal supply into power levels off
around 2020 – and this allows for reduced
exports and also some degree of
underground mining.
• Southeast Vietnam has some of the best wind
potential in Southeast Asia, but incentives will
be needed.
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Domestic Coal Wind Hydro
Gas Biofuel Fuel_Oil
Diesel Import Imported Coal
• Hydro (including imported hydro) expands to
2020 then the rate of growth declines.
• Domestic gas shows relatively good growth
but some committed southern coal plants
hamper gas sales through to 2020
• Beyond 2020 we let the economics of the
simulation take over; gas competes with coal
in the south, but in the north the sheer level of
power demand requires substantial coal build
– there is limited supply of gas in the north.
26
The Lantau Group