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Risk Modelling and Simulation for Critical Information Infrastructure ...

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Value assignement to SQD<br />

For each time t, each of the 10 parameters of SQD is the random variable taking<br />

the value 1 if the property is fulfilled and 0 if it is missing.<br />

Each parameters is characterised by an estimation of the expected value and by an estimation<br />

of its variance. For the computation a linear approximation is chosen.<br />

SQD i (t) = a i,j t + b i,j<br />

Agenda<br />

Introduction<br />

Info sharing<br />

in CIP<br />

Secure Sharing<br />

100%<br />

90%<br />

80%<br />

70%<br />

SQD(t)<br />

uncertainty<br />

area 2*Err<br />

with Err =f( i 2 )<br />

POC and testing<br />

60%<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

SQD(t)+Err<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

SQD(t)-Err<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

Linear<br />

approximation of<br />

SQD(t)<br />

Real curve<br />

Recorded values<br />

Predicted values<br />

The SQD is an xlm data structure containing for all 10 SQD parameters, for different upcoming<br />

time intervals, the coefficients of an linear approximation of the expected value and and of the<br />

standard deviation of the parameters.<br />

01/03/2011<br />

8 / 12

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