Towards a Workable and Effective Climate Regime

Introduction
Scott Barrett, Carlo Carraro and Jaime de Melo
Paris is achievable, but the real challenge is to design pathways and procedures for
incremental mitigation efforts in the years following COP21. Residual acrimony and
distrust from Copenhagen hamper the process, which must resolve many complex and
contentious issues, such as the legal form of an agreement, compliance, the role (if any)
for GHG markets and offset projects, intellectual property rights, compensation for loss
and damage, transparency and associated measurement, and monitoring, reporting and
verification (MRV) and review procedures. Overshadowing all remains the question
of how the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ (CBDR) will
manifest itself throughout the agreement, from mitigation to reporting and from review
to finance.
Nevertheless, some aspects are solidifying. Mitigation efforts will not be negotiated;
rather, they are being submitted as INDCs, and, ultimately, recorded. Total financial aid
appears set by the Copenhagen pledge of developed nations to mobilise US$100 billion
per year by 2020, provided that private-sector finance complements official assistance.
Also, negotiators appear resolved to creating a durable framework based on cycles of
review and renewal over intervals of, perhaps, five or ten years.
Despite these efforts, however, the Paris agreement is unlikely to put the world ‘on track’
to limiting warming to less than 2°C (or 1.5°C). Only recently have political leaders
begun to temper expectations. They will need to manage expectations thoughtfully to
avoid a backlash from a range of nations, stakeholders and media, and to restore the
credibility of the UNFCCC as an effective process. The Paris agreement will be but
another (although very important) step in a long journey. It is crucial to set the rules of
this journey, through effective monitoring, verification, and comparison of domestic
implementation, rather than complaining about the likely incomplete effectiveness of
the Paris agreement.
Part II: Views from the regions
Perceptions about the relevance of past contributions to climate change to future
obligations vary greatly across regions and countries, as do the political processes
leading to countries’ negotiating positions. To give a sense of this diversity, we invited
‘views’ from two regions and three countries, asking contributors to describe briefly
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