EZ Crisis A Consensus Narrative

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Triggers of the crisis • October 2009: Greece budget deficit unmasked • Six-moth attempt of ‘self rescue’ – failed • Greece trapped into a public debt vortex • Debt loop • Austerity loop
Sep-2008 Oct-2008 Nov-2008 Dec-2008 Jan-2009 Feb-2009 Mar-2009 Apr-2009 May-2009 Jun-2009 Jul-2009 Aug-2009 Sep-2009 Oct-2009 Nov-2009 Dec-2009 Jan-2010 Feb-2010 Mar-2010 Apr-2010 May-2010 Jun-2010 Jul-2010 Aug-2010 Sep-2010 Oct-2010 Nov-2010 Dec-2010 Jan-2011 Feb-2011 Mar-2011 Apr-2011 May-2011 Jun-2011 Jul-2011 Aug-2011 Sep-2011 Oct-2011 Nov-2011 Phase One: failed bailouts and contagion • Failed bailouts - Greece’s borrowing cost continued to soar • Contagion in the periphery Spreads • Public debt vortexes: Portugal • Bank debt vortexes public debt vortexes: Ireland 18 16 Greek deficit deceit Greek bailout Irish bailout Portuguese bailout Greece 14 12 10 8 6 Portugal Ireland 4 2 0 Prelude Phase One Figure : Prelude and Phase One of the <strong>Crisis</strong> in <strong>EZ</strong> Periphery
Page 1 and 2: EZ Crisis: A Consensus Narrative Th
Page 3 and 4: The causes of the EZ crisis The cor
Page 5 and 6: Building up problems • Sharp drop
Page 7 and 8: Jan-1990 Oct-1990 Jul-1991 Apr-1992
Page 9 and 10: 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Page 11 and 12: 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Page 13 and 14: Total landing from core countries
Page 15: Summary of pre-crisis imbalances 19
Page 19 and 20: Fiscal policy turned pro-cyclical f
Page 21 and 22: May-2010 Jun-2010 Jul-2010 Aug-2010
Page 23 and 24: Proximate causes, and causes of the
Page 25: The End

EZ Crisis A Consensus Narrative

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