2016 TOP TIR Awards

JANUARY 2016 Irish American News “WE’VE ALWAYS BEEN GREEN!” 13
From the
Motherland
By Sean Farrell
Where
Motley is Worn?
2016 promises to be interesting
with the 1916 Centenary celebrations,
the pending General Election
and the June UEFA Soccer
Championship Finals in France
plus whatever else may come.
It marks the Centenary of the
Easter Rising – which has made
us what we are. Already books
by the score have appeared or
been signalled about every aspect
of the Rising and its legacy.
Expect more, as well as a calendar
of celebratory events, on the
ground and in the media. For if
ever a poet got it right Yeats did
so with his phrase “ All changed,
changed utterly.” The Easter Rising
certainly did that.
And if one thing is a racing
certainty it is that the commemorations
will be accompanied by
an orgy of breast beating and
navel gazing about whether and
to what extent Ireland today
has lived up to, or fallen short
of, the ideals of 1916. Some of
this, of course, is not new. For
example, the phrase in the Proclamation
“cherishing all of the
children of the nation equally,”
has been used for years to attack
successive governments for the
evident disparities of opportunity
between children of different
wealth and class. Woe betide
anyone who queries its literal
meaning – surely metaphorical
- or some of the other wording
in the Proclamation, such as the
reference to support from “gallant
allies in Europe.”
Arguably every History-of-
Ireland book written about post
-1916 Ireland has touched on the
topic. Suffice to say here that “We
are where we are,” which is a
reasonably prosperous and stable
Western European democracy
which has managed to exorcise
over time most of its demons,
historical, religious, social and
societal. It’s a long way short
of perfect, but I haven’t noticed
many perfect societies around.
This is also Election Year, with
the centenary likely to add spice
to opposition rhetoric. February
seems the probable election date,
with Enda Kenny overwhelming
favourite to remain Taoiseach
(nine to two on). Interestingly
also the odds against the current
coalition being returned have
shortened significantly to nine to
two against, though the odds on
a Fine Gael/Fianna Fail government
remain shorter.
What is indisputable is that
Enda Kenny is one lucky general.
He almost pulled off victory
in 2007. Had he done so he
would have been sunk without
trace when the slump hit. In
2011 he got the Taoiseach’s job,
gift wrapped as Fianna Fail
imploded, and with the bonus
that most of the heavy lifting to
sustain and revive the economy
had already been done by the
two Brians. Early on his government
secured an improved deal
from the ECB which gave it some
wiggle room and it enjoyed a
lengthy honeymoon period with
considerable benefit of the doubt
from the public.
The latest indicators are that
the economy bottomed out in late
2010, grew slightly for
several years and has
now surged ahead
at a pace far faster
than anticipated by
most economists.
Partly this has been
due to the recovery of
the world economy,
which has produced
a wave of inward investment,
generating
jobs. The scale of the
recovery, otherwise,
suggests that, leaving
aside the bank
catastrophe, many
elements in the economy
were sound and
in position to bounce
back rapidly, with the cuts imposed
helping to improve the
country’s competitiveness.
But, again to demonstrate how
lucky Kenny has been, important
additional factors aiding
recovery have been the sustained
period of historically low interest
rates worldwide and the decline
in energy and commodity costs,
all of which helped Ireland’s
recovery and, inter alia, made
servicing the annual debt much
less burdensome than in years
past. In short the economies and
cuts, though painful, could have
been much worse.
The jury is still out on whether
the government is getting its message
across. Even with economic
growth touching 7% - almost
Celtic Tiger rates - the opinion
polls don’t demonstrate great
enthusiasm for the Coalition.
Fine Gael seems steady at around
30% but Labour has yet to sustain
the 10% level most commentators
consider essential to translate
into a significant number
of seats. The combined magic
number is 80 and with Fine Gael
currently looking at around 60
there is some way to go. Uncertainty
still abounds. However,
it is still the phoney war period.
Electioneering will not begin in
earnest until January when the
New Year budget concessions
will certainly do Labour no harm.
The stability factor is incalculable
but could also prove significant.
We will shortly be presented
with the various party election
manifestoes and promises. Much
of the middleclass anger of 2011
has gone but this time around
expect a new edge to demands
from the far left, targeting in
particular disillusioned Labour
supporters. The polls suggest significant
dissatisfaction with the
traditional parties but how that
will play out in terms of actual
voter support for independents
and small parties is unclear. The
Government will stand by its
record, but perhaps it should
consider a couple of sweeteners,
which, given the buoyant state
of the country’s finances, it can
well afford.
The Government has made
mistakes – Irish Water being a
prime example. Few doubt the
need for overhauling and modernising
an antiquated water
system to bring it into the Twenty
First Century but the quango that
is Irish Water proved a political
disaster from the off, rallying
and focussing discontent, especially
on the left and seriously
damaging Labour in particular.
Its future may be up for grabs
with several opposition parties
already shouting for its abolition
post- election. There is surely
a strong political case for the
Government to limit electoral
damage pre-election by finding
a way to fudge, with the promise
of suspending domestic charges
while the system’s chronic leaks
are addressed, thus removing
water as an election issue.
Secondly, there is the nation’s
health. Here unfair and frankly
immoral wrongs were done to
the most vulnerable during the
austerity years, ranging from
cuts in home help and assistance
to carers, deprival of discretionary
medical cards and other associated
cutbacks, all adversely
affecting the quality of life of
the many affected. These were
done in preference to increasing
taxes or cutting benefits
elsewhere on those better able to
cope. The money to remedy this
is now there. What is required is
a manifesto commitment by the
Coalition parties to restore the
2007 situation in those areas by
the end of this year. Whatever
about any political gain this is the
right thing to do.
Finally in June there are the
UEFA soccer finals. Ireland qualified
after emerging from a difficult
group. The main scalp in
qualification was world champion
Germany, whom Ireland tied
in Germany and defeated in Dublin.
Four years ago a poor Ireland
team were outclassed in the last
UEFA finals. This time around we
face world number one Belgium
and the always difficult Italy. Yet
both underperformed at the last
World Cup and there is a rising
feeling that Ireland could cause a
shock or two. There are inevitable
comparisons being drawn with
World Cup 1990 when Ireland
achieved heroics at a time when
the economy was on the turn
after a difficult time. Perhaps
history will do a repeat?
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