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NBR Board of Directors Charles W. Brady (Chairman) Chairman Emeritus Invesco LLC John V. Rindlaub (Vice Chairman and Treasurer) President, Asia Pacific Wells Fargo George F. Russell Jr. (Chairman Emeritus) Chairman Emeritus Russell Investments Karan Bhatia Vice President & Senior Counsel International Law & Policy General Electric Dennis Blair Chairman Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA U.S. Navy (Ret.) Maria Livanos Cattaui Secretary General (Ret.) International Chamber of Commerce William M. Colton Vice President Corporate Strategic Planning Exxon Mobil Corporation Timothy L. Conlon President and COO Viasystems Group, Inc. (Ret.) George Davidson Vice Chairman, M&A, Asia-Pacific HSBC Holdings plc Norman D. Dicks Senior Policy Advisor Van Ness Feldman LLP Richard J. Ellings President NBR R. Michael Gadbaw Distinguished Visiting Fellow Institute of International Economic Law, Georgetown University Law Center Ryo Kubota Chairman, President, and CEO Acucela Inc. Melody Meyer President Chevron Asia Pacific Exploration and Production Company Chevron Corporation Pamela S. Passman President and CEO Center for Responsible Enterprise and Trade (CREATe) C. Michael Petters President and Chief Executive Officer Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Kenneth B. Pyle Professor (emeritus); Founding President University of Washington; NBR Tom Robertson Vice President and Deputy General Counsel Microsoft Corporation Gordon Smith Chief Operating Officer Exact Staff, Inc. Scott Stoll Partner Ernst & Young LLP David K.Y. Tang Managing Partner, Asia K&L Gates LLP Tadataka Yamada Venture Partner Frazier Healthcare Honorary Directors Lawrence W. Clarkson Senior Vice President The Boeing Company (Ret.) Thomas E. Fisher Senior Vice President Unocal Corporation (Ret.) Joachim Kempin Senior Vice President Microsoft Corporation (Ret.) Clark S. Kinlin President and Chief Executive Officer Corning Cable Systems Corning Incorporated Norman D. Dicks U.S. House of Representatives (Ret.) Thomas B. Fargo U.S. Navy (Ret.) NBR Counselors Slade Gorton U.S. Senate (Ret.) Joseph Lieberman U.S. Senate (Ret.) Michael Armacost Stanford University Nicholas Eberstadt American Enterprise Institute Karl Eikenberry Stanford University Donald Emmerson Stanford University Aaron Friedberg Princeton University Robert Gilpin Princeton University Lee Hamilton Indiana University Stephen Hanson College of William and Mary Harry Harding University of Virginia Donald Hellmann University of Washington Robert J. Herbold The Herbold Group, LLC NBR Board of Advisors Carla A. Hills Hills & Company Robert D. Hormats Kissinger Associates, Inc. David Lampton Johns Hopkins University Nicholas Lardy Peterson Institute for International Economics Richard Lawless New Magellan Ventures Chae-Jin Lee Claremont McKenna College Kenneth Lieberthal Brookings Institution William J. Lynn, III DRS Technologies, Inc. Rajan Menon City College of New York Mary Minnick Lion Capital Sam Nunn Nuclear Threat Initiative Joseph S. Nye Jr. Harvard University Stanley Palmer Marvin & Palmer Associates, Inc. Dwight Perkins Harvard University Thomas Pickering The Boeing Company (Ret.) Clarine Nardi Riddle Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman LLP Stanley Roth The Boeing Company Sheldon Simon Arizona State University Ashley Tellis Carnegie Endowment for International Peace John White Harvard University
nbr special report #55 | february 2016 mapping pakistan ’ s internal dynamics Implications for State Stability and Regional Security Mumtaz Ahmad, Dipankar Banerjee, Aryaman Bhatnagar, C. Christine Fair, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Husain Haqqani, Mahin Karim, Tariq A. Karim, Vivek Katju, C. Raja Mohan, Matthew J. Nelson, and Jayadeva Ranade
Page 1: the national bureau of asian resear
Page 5 and 6: nbr special report #55 | february 2
Page 7 and 8: the national bureau of asian resear
Page 9 and 10: Yet Pakistan’s instability is not
Page 11 and 12: prosecute its leaders for war crime
Page 13 and 14: efforts toward real security—both
Page 15 and 16: to both U.S. and regional interests
Page 17 and 18: the national bureau of asian resear
Page 19 and 20: Few countries in the developing wor
Page 21 and 22: provinces from 47.5% to 56.0% in 20
Page 23 and 24: the local level. Provincial governm
Page 25 and 26: asking the U.S. government to inter
Page 27 and 28: to abolish the National Security Co
Page 29 and 30: parties, the resulting plan gives e
Page 31 and 32: the novel idea to reserve quotas fo
Page 33 and 34: many of them in their teens, 38 who
Page 35 and 36: involvement in violence in Indian-c
Page 37: The righteous rage articulated by I
Page 40 and 41: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay diachr
Page 42 and 43: While Pakistani elites have time an
Page 44 and 45: f i g u r e 1 All political violenc
Page 46 and 47: f i g u r e 3 Communal violence in
Page 48 and 49: f i g u r e 5 Terrorist violence in
Page 50 and 51: Figure 1 depicts all political viol
Page 52 and 53:
(Jaish-e-Mohammad, Harkat-ul-Jihadi
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When the Soviet Union withdrew from
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During this same period when Pakist
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groups form the backbone of the TTP
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particularly from the army. The dir
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Not only has Pakistan for the most
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other relevant historical opinions
Page 66 and 67:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay argues
Page 68 and 69:
political accountability. The essay
Page 70 and 71:
Residents of the area note that Cha
Page 72 and 73:
modernizing middle-class nationalis
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From Religious Education to Sectari
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During the past few years the mains
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worker did not plan to vote for Imr
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Baluch (backed by the PPP) against
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so oten compete. Teachers and their
Page 85 and 86:
the national bureau of asian resear
Page 87 and 88:
The trauma of partition in 1947 emb
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the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes.
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t a b l e 1 Bilateral trade between
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Challenges in the Bilateral Relatio
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war of liberation in 1971, the Sovi
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within India view the November 26 a
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that such groups or individuals—t
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political and strategic discourse,
Page 103 and 104:
project. 74 In November 2014, the s
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Page 107 and 108:
Diplomatic relations between China
Page 109 and 110:
in military equipment to Pakistan.
Page 111 and 112:
High-Level Diplomacy and Exchanges
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September 2009, Chinese vice foreig
Page 115:
Islamic countries. Pakistan, Bangla
Page 118 and 119:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay examin
Page 120 and 121:
military cooperation with Pakistan.
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Ironically, the quest for energy se
Page 124 and 125:
Iran is equally (if not more) worri
Page 126 and 127:
automatically draw in Iran as a par
Page 128 and 129:
acceptable than what might emerge i
Page 130 and 131:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay discus
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problems extend to the military, co
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parliament building. 10 During the
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and other regional countries. Yet i
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ater Ghani’s outreach to Pakistan
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latter’s ability to regroup, resu
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United States will succeed in stabi
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But like many other diplomatic even
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All of Afghanistan’s neighbors, a
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This essay traces
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foreign funding, and policy choices
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South Asia Terrorism Portal, in Pak
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people with an unstable polity, num
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In recent years, however, there has
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dangerous repercussions for Pakista
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Page 163 and 164:
In an interview in 2006, Robert Gal
Page 165 and 166:
states. This or a similar network c
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Intelligence (ISI) over the last th
Page 169 and 170:
would be its impact on the Iranian
Page 171 and 172:
The volatile security environment i
Page 173:
Page 176 and 177:
Civil Society Pakistan’s civil so
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Civil-Military Relations The Pakist
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The majority of judges were also no
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What is not in doubt, however, is t
Page 184:
Outlook Pakistan is a deeply troubl
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