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The Dragon’s Pearls China’s Road to Hegemony in the Indian Ocean Captain David L. O. Hayward, Australian AR (Ret) Abstract. In this article, the author argues that China is moving toward hegemony in the Indian Ocean Region to secure its ability to obtain the gas and oil supplies it needs for commercial development and possibly for national security and military purposes. He argues further that the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor projects and ideas, such as the One Belt, One Road and Maritime Silk Road initiatives, among others, are benign sounding ways to obscure China’s more complex desires, previously referred to as a String of Pearls by Department of Defense analysts. Keywords: China, waishi, maritime strategy, String of Pearls, Maritime Silk Road, China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, foreign direct investment, logistics, supply chain, oil, crude oil, gas, fossil fuel reserves, consumer market, global economy, Chinese shipping lane, Chinese port, Indian Ocean Region, China’s Near Seas, People’s Republic of China, People’s Liberation Army Navy, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Strait of Malacca, Malacca dilemma This article focuses attention on the northern reaches of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This ocean constitutes the third largest body of water in the world (map 1). The countries’ littorals to selected reaches discussed or briefly mentioned, geographically traversing from west to east, include Djibouti (Gulf of Aden and Red Sea); Pakistan (Arabian Sea); India and Sri Lanka 46 Capt David L. O. Hayward, Australian Army Reserve (Ret), is a freelance defense analyst. His defense papers have been posted to 16 websites worldwide. Hayward is an associate at Future Directions International (FDI), a member of the Royal United Service Institute Queensland, and an intern at the Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. MCU Journal vol. 7, no. 1 Spring 2016 www.mcu.usmc.mil/mcu_press DOI:10.21140/mcuj.2016070103
Vol. 7, No. 1 Map 1. Indian Ocean Region Map courtesy of Future Directions International, adapted by MCUP. (Indian Ocean); Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand (Bay of Bengal); Malaysia (Strait of Malacca); and Singapore and Australia (Timor Sea). For multiple and complex reasons summarized below, China places immense geopolitical, strategic, logistical, economic, and military value on the IOR. This article supports the argument that China intends to achieve maritime hegemony in both the IOR and its declared Near Seas to ensure sustainability of its oil and gas shipments, raw materials, and mercantile trade. 1 The Indian Ocean is the main conduit for China’s seaborne trade and mercantile traffic representing approximately 60 percent volume of all Chinese global imports including a large percentage of oil and gas shipments. It provides essential transit routes for vital strategic hydrocarbons and raw materials largely sourced in the Middle East (Arabian Gulf), Africa (ports on the East Coast), and Australia (ports in Queensland and Western Australia). Thus, the Indian Ocean, with its indispensable sea lines of communication (SLOCs), is key to China’s economic health and for sustainability of its gross domestic product (GDP) and other indicative economic indices, including the provisions for the wellbeing and standard of living for its people. China’s GDP was estimated at $9.49 trillion (2013), almost six times that of India. 2 China’s GDP represented 16.71 percent of the world’s economy. 3 Hayward 47
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