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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Visitor Arrivals (thousands) Long-term tourism growth has been positive, but performance varies among PICs 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Other PICs Vanuatu Samoa PNG Palau Fiji Source: UNWTO 5. The PIC11 countries are significantly underrepresented in international brand name hotels. This is largely due to the very small average size of hotels in the region. Research by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) shows that there are fewer than 60 hotels in the PIC11 with more than 100 rooms and less than 60 percent of these carry an international brand. In terms of large international hotel groups, Accor (France), Starwood (US) and InterContinental Hotel Group (UK) dominate the region with 60 percent of the branded properties. The absence of a critical mass of international brand names limits recognition in international markets. 6. Analysis of individual source markets and market trends suggest that in order to ensure long-term, balanced and manageable visitor growth, the Pacific will need to work on several fronts to maintain its strong position in the short haul markets of Australia and New Zealand, capture a share of the emerging Asian markets while at the same time significantly improving penetration into the traditional, but slower growth long haul markets of Europe and North America. Learning from the Seychelles and the Maldives 7. <strong>Tourism</strong> has transformed many emerging economies in the last 50 years including Seychelles and the Maldives. In 1995, the Maldives received 315,000 international arrivals and US$211 million in tourism receipts. By 2014 arrivals exceeded 1.2 million and tourism receipts were US$2,645 million. In 2013, tourism accounted for 27.9 percent of GDP (Ministry of <strong>Tourism</strong> 2014). Maldives has successfully attracted the Chinese market through a combination of marketing and easing direct flight access. China grew from nearly zero to over 30 percent of the market in an eightyear period making it the top source market since 2010. Tourist arrivals in the Seychelles increased from 120,716 in 1995 to 231,857 in 2014, an increase of 92 percent. The Seychelles was quick to change strategy when the 2008 financial crisis hit the main European source market and diversified its source markets. 8. Under the assumption of long-term visitor growth of three percent, tourism will continue to be important to PIC11 economies. However, long-term growth at this level will not generate significant changes in economic performance of the PIC11s. For this, it will be necessary to significantly expand demand in selected segments. Significant growth in visitor arrivals above trend is possible. ii
Transformational Opportunities 9. Based on long-term performance, emerging market trends, specific product opportunities and the natural attractions and selling points, the Pacific has opportunities that hold the potential to generate transformational change. These opportunities include aggressively targeting the Chinese visitor market, engaging more directly in the rapidly growing Pacific cruising product, expansion of the high-end resort market and capitalizing on the aging population in key origin markets by developing a long-stay visitor opportunity for retirees. These opportunities have the potential to deliver substantially higher revenues but will also bring impacts that will need to be managed. Capturing the Chinese Market 10. The market share of Chinese tourists can be increased substantially beyond its current seven percent. Following the long term growth projections for the region of 3 percent per annum, PIC11s would welcome approximately 1.9 million international tourists by 2025. Between 2009 and 2014 Chinese visitors to PIC11 grew by an average of 27 percent per annum, and now represent seven percent of the inbound market. Based on the experience of other destinations that implemented welltargeted policy interventions that facilitated improved access, such as aviation and visa policies, together with targeted marketing, the annual growth rate of Chinese arrivals could continue at 20 percent per annum over the next ten years. This would result in the market share of Chinese tourists in PIC11s growing to 26 percent by 2025. Under this scenario PIC11 would receive 620,000 Chinese tourists out of a total of 2.4 million international tourists by 2025. 11. The PIC11 can attract nearly one million Chinese tourists in 2040. Beyond 2025, it is likely that limitations on carrying capacity and absorption rates would act to reduce the growth of Chinese visitors to PIC11s. Assuming growth returned to the long-term average for all markets, Chinese visitors would retain the 26 percent share of total PIC11 tourism resulting in a figure of approximately 965,000 visitors by 2040. At that time the PIC11 would welcome more than 3.7 million international tourists. Compared to a standard growth rate of three percent, the additionality of the transformational scenario estimates the economic potential of the Chinese market opportunity in 2040 at over 755,000 additional tourists, which bring nearly US$1 billion in tourism receipts, and generate nearly 70,000 additional jobs. Additional transformational impact in 2040 755,000 tourists 69,200 jobs Increasing the Chinese Market US$989m receipts Source: Author’s estimations $42.3m airport taxes iii
Page 1 and 2: Tourism
Page 3 and 4: This report was prepared under the
Page 5: Tourism in 2040: Bringing an additi
Page 9 and 10: Capturing the Retiree Market 14. Th
Page 11 and 12: Opportunity Increasing the PICbased
Page 13 and 14: Determine rights of retirees to imp
Page 15 and 16: List of Tables Table 1. In 2013, to
Page 17 and 18: Marshall Islands. These two countri
Page 19 and 20: 14. Tourism is an important source
Page 21 and 22: 24. While some of these approaches
Page 23 and 24: 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Page 25 and 26: of the Fiji tourist industry, and o
Page 27 and 28: 75 percent of arrivals to Kiritimat
Page 29 and 30: there are fewer than 60 hotels in t
Page 31 and 32: 73. The propensity to travel (inter
Page 33 and 34: Figure 6. Asia and the Pacific will
Page 35 and 36: 2 Successful Tourism Transformation
Page 37 and 38: 96. As a result, tourism foreign di
Page 39 and 40: Visitor Arrivals (thousands) US$ Mi
Page 41 and 42: effects of tourism within the econo
Page 43 and 44: Meridien, Banyan Tree, Shangri-La a
Page 45 and 46: 132. Realizing the potential growth
Page 47 and 48: Table 9. Chinese households are get
Page 49 and 50: Figure 14. Travel spending by Chine
Page 51 and 52: Scale of Transformation 150. Based
Page 53 and 54: 21.7 percent of passengers and grew
Page 55 and 56: the number of overnight visitors. W
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unaffected, largely because most op
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Table 13. Home-basing cruise ships
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Their time is a precious commodity
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million annually could be achieved
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segment. Some destinations are offe
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Economic Impact 218. Due to the exi
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Opportunity Increasing the PICbased
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Establish a system of licensed immi
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Hutchens, G. "Australians are Retir
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World Travel and Tourism Council (W
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Table A2. Arrivals to Vanuatu 2010
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office opened in Sydney. The close
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Appendix 2: PIC Source Markets Tren
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Figure A2. New Zealand arrivals to
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increasing from 10,149 in 1995 to 2
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2014—a 34 percent increase from 2
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32. The main markets for the UK in
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Figure A8. China arrivals in top PI
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Appendix 3: Use of Subsidies in Pac
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12. Through confidential interviews
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Table A13: Lowest estimated subsidy
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Appendix 4: Development of air serv
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(iii) Push or pull-oriented 7. As f
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- Recommendations 10. The developme
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- Recommendations 21. A serious con
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Funding model 34. One single fundin
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- Recommendations 45. It is recomme
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worldbank.org/PacificPossible
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