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Mon 18th July 2016, 06:00 GMT
XAUUSD
NEUTRAL
Gold moved south in a relatively consistent fashion over the past
week, a symptom of the return of some political stability in the UK
and some improvements in the US economy. Specifically, Theresa
Mayʼs accession to the role of PM was well received by the
markets and saw the VIX and Gold continue to subside over the
subsequent sessions. Later in the week, the release of the US
Beige Book showed that most areas in the US were showing some
modest improvement, even if Inflation was not looking ready to
surge just yet.
Going ahead, the metal will largely be looking to Thursdayʼs US
Philadelphia Federal Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims,
and Existing New Home Sales figures for any price movements.
Weaker results in any of these indicators could help gold to remain
afloat throughout the week but could likewise send it tumbling if
they come in stronger than expected. However, keep an eye out
for any more shifts in sentiment that could arise from news
surrounding the ongoing Brexit saga.
Looking to the technical analysis, Goldʼs bullish trend looks to be
on hold as it moves into a ranging phase. On the daily chart, the
12 and 20 day EMAʼs are now moving into a sideways
configuration which could limit upside potential. In addition to this,
the combination of a bearish Daily Parabolic SAR reading and a
Bullish H4 Reading show a degree of indecisiveness for the metal.
Mirroring this sentiment, RSI is relatively flat which should see
gold oscillate between the 1300.00 and 1375.00 handles over the
coming week. Resistance is now at 1346.69, 1359.24, and
1375.96. Support will be evident at 1320.41, 1303.68, and
1280.98.
19/07 12:30 USD Building Permits
21/07 12:30 USD Unemployment Claims
21/07 12:30 USD Philadelphia Federal Manufacturing Index
1346.69 1320.41