Q3 Q4

II. Featured risk analyses
ern Balkans region each day in Q4 2015.
Many of these migrants, after making an
asylum application in Hungary, continued
to travel to Austria and further on to Germany.
In fact, Germany reported most detections
on intra-Schengen movements
near the Austrian border.
Growing secondary flows from Hungary
to Italy and France
In addition, Member State reports point to
an increasingly important intra-Schengen
route from Hungary via Slovenia and Italy.
Eurodac data show that a growing share of
asylum applicants in Italy was previously
registered in EU Member States along the
Eastern Mediterranean and Western Balkan
route. In Q2 2016, Italy reported almost
5 000 Eurodac hits in relation to an
illegal border-crossing or prior asylum application
in Hungary, representing a 71%
increase compared to Q1 2016. The reported
hits were mainly triggered by Pakistani
and Afghan nationals. Moreover,
Eurodac hits in Italy related to Greece
increased by 9%. The reported Eurodac
numbers clearly point to a smaller branch
of the Western Balkan route leading to Italy,
probably to avoid the intensified police
controls at the Austrian national borders
with Hungary.
This assumption is supported by the recent
disruption of a criminal network operating
in several countries. According to
media reports, in August, the authorities
in Italy, Hungary and Slovenia arrested
four people in a coordinated operation
targeting a group suspected of smuggling
irregular migrants into Italy. Two of the
suspects were arrested in northern Italy,
one in Budapest and one in the Slovenian
city of Maribor. The suspects were
part of a facilitation network of Pakistani
origin that was based in Milan, the Italian
authorities announced to the media.
According to the statement of the Italian
authorities, the criminal network received
around EUR 500 000 from the
migrants per year. The organisation smuggled
nationals of Pakistan, Bangladesh and
Afghanistan from Hungary to Italy and
other EU countries, using delivery vans
and fraudulent documents. 6
Also intra-Schengen FRAN data reported
by France show an increase in asylum applicants
who have previously been fingerprinted
in Hungary. In relation to Q1, the
number of Eurodac hits increased by 44%
in the second quarter of 2016. Most migrants
who were successively registered
in the Eurodac system in Hungary and
France were of Afghan and Pakistani nationals.
It is not clear how many of these
migrants also took the route via Slovenia
and Italy to reach France.
FRAN intra-Schengen data also point to
many migrants using secondary routes
via the Czech Republic to Germany, thus
bypassing German police controls at the
national border with Austria. After a low
in Q1, the number of irregular migrants
detected in Germany on the route from
the Czech Republic increased again by
one-third.
Western route: Increased secondary
movements but from a comparably
low level
Although detections on the Western Mediterranean
route increased by 15% compared
with one year ago, there were no
substantial changes on the secondary
routes from Spain and Portugal. Indicators
reported to the intra-Schengen dataset
point to comparably few secondary
movements between the Iberian Peninsula
and France, mainly by nationals of
North and West African countries.
According to open sources, those that
did choose the Western Mediterranean
route and, having arrived in Spain, continued
to Central and Northern Europe,
tended to be transported by facilitators
in private cars in return of a fee (around
EUR 250 per passenger). This modus op-
6 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europemigrants-italy-arrests-idUSKCN10H073
erandi was reported from the two main
land entry points from Spain to France,
i.e. Irún and Boulou.
According to Eurodac data, between the
first and the second quarter of 2016, there
was only a slight increase in the number
of hits, on the French territory, regarding
the abovementioned nationals first registered
in Spain. This is in line with the upward
trend of the total number of Eurodac
hits, in France, from the first to the second
quarter. Also in terms of readmissions
of migrants from France to Spain,
there was an increase (same nationalities
as above) between the first and the
second quarter, also following the rising
trend of the total number of readmissions
from France to Spain.
Eastern route
In the second quarter of 2016, the German
authorities reported a 37% increase
in detections of intra-Schengen movements
from Poland. This rise was mainly
caused by increased numbers of irregular
migrants of Russian nationality who have
entered the EU in Poland after transiting
through Belarus. Many Russian citizens
travel by train from Minsk and enter the
Schengen area in the Polish city of Terespol,
where they usually file an asylum
application.
Although Germany reported only few illegally
staying Russian nationals in the
intra-Schengen dataset in Q2 2016, the
actual number of irregular migrants travelling
between the two countries might
be much higher. In contrast to its border
with Austria, Germany did not reintroduce
internal controls at its eastern borders,
so the detected number of Russian
irregular migrants travelling from Poland
is relatively low.
Compared with the same period in 2015,
the number of asylum applications submitted
by Russian citizens in Poland almost
tripled in Q2 2016. Poland also
collects statistics on the ethnicity of the
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