JSU Fall 2015 Report

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Readers of this report should note that any survey is analogous to a snapshot in time and results are only reflective of the time period in which the survey was undertaken. Should concerted public relations or information campaigns be undertaken during or shortly after the fielding of the survey, the results contained herein may be expected to change and should be, therefore, carefully interpreted and extrapolated. Furthermore, it is important to note that all surveys contain some component of “sampling error”. Error that is attributable to systematic bias has been significantly reduced by utilizing strict random probability procedures. This sample was strictly random in that selection of each potential respondent was an independent event based on known probabilities. Each qualified online panel member within the United States had an equal chance for participating in the study. Statistical random error, however, can never be eliminated but may be significantly reduced by increasing sample size. Institute of Government Polling Center Page 6
3 HIGHLIGHTS ON THE 2016 ELECTION… The latest national poll by Jackson State University’s Institute of Government Polling Center shows a close contest between businessman Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson among likely Republican voters. Trump led the group with 29.7% followed by Carson who polled at 22.0% in a “first choice” selection. These two leading candidates were followed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz (9.1%), former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (8.6%), Florida Senator Marco Rubio (5.3%), Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (3.8%), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (3.3%) and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (2.9%). The poll was conducted prior to the third Republican debate on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 and before the fourth Republican debate on Tuesday, November 10, 2015. A “second choice” spread the percentages more evenly across all Republican candidates resulting in a new declining order: Trump, Cruz, Carson, Rubio, Bush – 16.3%, 12.0%, 11.5%, respectively, and Rubio/Bush tied at 9.6%. Paul, Huckabee, and Christie were all tied at 5.7%. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the Democrats by a wide margin. Fielding of the current poll was conducted October 12-20, 2015 and ended the day prior to Vice President Joe Biden deciding against a run for the White House. Among likely Democratic voters, Clinton leads with 52.9% in a “first choice” poll ballot. This is followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 18.8% and Vice President Joe Biden at 13.8%. Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Senator Jim Webb polled at zero percent. Each has subsequently withdrawn from the contest. A “second choice” among likely Democratic voters shows Biden leading with 32.9% followed by Clinton with 22.9% and Sanders with 12.5%. Institute of Government Polling Center Page 7
Page 1 and 2: NATIONAL POLL REPORT THE POLLING CE
Page 3 and 4: TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 SECTION Introdu
Page 5: 2 METHODOLOGY Using a quantitative
Page 9 and 10: In April, 2015, 41.4% saw their own
Page 11 and 12: Unchanged from 2014, 58.7% of all r
Page 13 and 14: 4 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Readers are r
Page 15 and 16: Republican Candidates: FIRST SECOND
Page 17 and 18: Democratic Candidates: FIRST SECOND
Page 19 and 20: All respondents were asked which pr
Page 21 and 22: THE ILLUSION OF PRIVACY The followi
Page 23 and 24: Respondents were asked for their ow
Page 25 and 26: All October 2015 survey respondents
Page 27 and 28: A large majority of poll respondent
Page 29 and 30: Overall positive ratings, between S
Page 31 and 32: The following table presents the re
Page 33 and 34: The following two tables present th
Page 35 and 36: Issue Statements The survey include
Page 37 and 38: GUN CONTROL Support / Oppose Gun Co
Page 39 and 40: DEMOGRAPHICS Rural, Suburban or Urb
Page 41: 5 APPENDIX INTERPRETATION OF AGGREG

JSU Fall 2015 Report

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