mufon ufo journal - The Black Vault

There, is undoubtedly still some
IFO static in the signal from the
UFOCAT (UFO Catalogue) operated
by CUFOS. But these refinements of
an original data base comprising 1,000
total reports assign a higher credence
to the 396 events analyzed.
By chance, exactly half (or 198) of
the Michigan events occurred during
the months of November through April,
which are obviously colder and in
general have poorer weather. The
. remaining half, then, transpired in the
May-October period when conditions
are most favorable. These six-month
divisions are utilized extensively
throughout the study.
Ten first-order weather stations
spread across the two Michigan
peninsulas provided most of the
meteorological findings, based upon
hourly readings by professionals
around the clock. These primary sites
include Detroit (2), Flint, Lansing,
Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Houghton
Lake, Alpena, Sault St. Marie and
Marquette. In addition, over 150
secondary stations were utilized in
respect to their recorded observations
of rain, snow or other precipitation near
the site of a reported UFO. [A review of
the actual case files would assist to
some extent, although investigative
reports have not systematically
included weather information.]
For every meteorological factor,
the actual readings at the nearest hour
from the station nearest to the reported
incident were contrasted with the
station's mean measurement for that
hour and date through the same 31year
period.
FINDINGS
Table 1 represents the actual
Fahrenheit temperature at the UFO
event hour in relation to its departure
from the mean for that hour and date.
The strongest finding is that, in just
under 80 percent of all reported events,
the temperature was between 10
degrees above and below normal. The
seasonal (i.e. 6-month) departure at
UFO event hours is likewise significant
for both the cold and warm weather
months. It is thus fair to conclude that,
in Michigan, temperature has nothing
to do with UFO reports.
Table 2 indicates the proportions
of events in the cold and warm months,
respectively, by the recorded wind
speed, shown as knots per hour (k/h),
at the nearest first-order station.
For November through April,
nearly 70 percent of the reported
events occurred with a breeze of 10 k/h
or less at the nearest station, although
five cases were aligned with a wind
speed of over 20 k/h. The average
speed of 8.8 k/h at the event hour is not
substantially calmer than the mean of
10.7 for the cumulative seasonal period.
May to October sightings were
under calmer wind conditions, with
nearly seven out of eight accompanied
by a breeze of 10 k/h or less. The event
hour mean wind speed of 7.2 was
likewise less than the 8.7 for the overall
seasonal dates.
While wind speed at the hour and
fairly near the reported location was
10PM-4AM:
4 AM- 10AM:
10AM-4PM:
4PM- 10PM:
Total:
Nov-Apr:
May-Oct:
Total:
40/Under
2.0% 0
1.1%
3.6%
6.7%
Table 6
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT HOUR OF UFO EVENT
(Percent of Events)
41-60
4.2%
1.4%
5.1%
11.1%
21.8%
61-80
17.6%
5.8%
4.6%
14.6%
42.6%
usually a little calmer than the norm, the
variance between cold and warm
month UFO events follows the regular
pattern of the state. It must, therefore,
be concluded that wind is not much of
a factor in Michigan UFO cases.
Visibility is basically defined as the
distance toward the horizon at which
prominent objects can be readily
discerned with unaided vision. When
the visibility is at least 15 miles, there is
minimal haze, smoke or measurable
moisture in the air. At the hour of
reported UFO incidents, Table 3 shows
that the nearest first-order station
recorded such an extended visibility in
nine out of every twenty cases.
On the other hand, every eighth
event was accompanied by rather poor
visibility of 5 miles or less, which is
indicative of rainy or snowy weather.
There are, unfortunately, insufficient
meteorological figures historically on
81-100
14.9%
5.8%
2.9%
5.3%
28.9%
Total
Events
38.7%
13.0%
13.7%
34.6%
100. %
, Table 7
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT HOUR OF UFO EVENT
(Percent of Events)
40/Under 41-60 61-80 81-100
Total
Events
10.3%
3.0%
6.7%
24.2%
21.2%
22.7%
40.0%
40.6%
40.3%
Table 8
25.5%
35.2%
30.3%
50.0%
50.0%
100. %
PRECIPITATION - DAILY INCIDENCE VERSUS UFO EVENT DAYS
November - April
MeanEvent
May - October
BeanEvent
51.8% 41.6% 41.4% 44.7%
Table 9
Event
Mean
73.5%
76.8%
63.6%
62.5%
68.9%
Event
Mean
66.2%
71.6%
68.9%
Total
Mean tvent
46.6% 43.1%
PRECIPITATION - 12-HOUR INCIDENCE SURROUNDING UFO EVENTS
Nov-Apr:
May-Oct:
Total:
Before
13.7%
20.8%
17.3%
After
12.7%
17.8%
15.2%
During/
After
8.1%
2.5%
5.3%
During
7.1%
3.6%
5.3%
Annual
Mean
81.2%
82.9%
63.1%
68.4%
73. b%
Annual
Mean
73.0%
74.6%
73.8%
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