mnb-op-125-final
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9. Appendix<br />
Although the impact of exogenous assumptions on growth is quantified in the main text of the study,<br />
presenting the effect of each channel can further help in the understanding of the processes. The<br />
resolution will help reveal the relative role of the channels for the main economic variables. Exogenous<br />
assumptions are divided into the following categories: foreign trade (Chart 11), EU funds (Chart 12),<br />
remittances (Chart 13), and reallocation of the British FDI (Chart 14).<br />
Chart 11: Effect on Hungarian growth (left panel) and inflation (right panel)<br />
via foreign trade channel<br />
difference from the baseline<br />
(percentage point)<br />
0.4<br />
0.2<br />
0<br />
-0.2<br />
-0.4<br />
-0.6<br />
-0.8<br />
-1<br />
-1.2<br />
-1.4<br />
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020<br />
difference from the baseline<br />
(percentage point)<br />
0.4<br />
0.2<br />
0<br />
-0.2<br />
-0.4<br />
-0.6<br />
-0.8<br />
-1<br />
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020<br />
I II III<br />
I II III<br />
Source: MNB<br />
Chart 12: Effect on Hungarian growth (left panel) and inflation (right panel)<br />
via EU funds channel<br />
difference from the baseline<br />
(percentage point)<br />
0.2<br />
0.15<br />
0.1<br />
0.05<br />
0<br />
-0.05<br />
-0.1<br />
-0.15<br />
-0.2<br />
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020<br />
difference from the baseline<br />
(percentage point)<br />
0.1<br />
0.08<br />
0.06<br />
0.04<br />
0.02<br />
0<br />
-0.02<br />
-0.04<br />
-0.06<br />
-0.08<br />
-0.1<br />
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020<br />
I II III<br />
I II III<br />
Source: MNB<br />
MNB OCCASIONAL PAPERS <strong>125</strong> • 2017 39
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