NMCi scenarios 2017

Western Indian Ocean Sustainability Scenarios
The Northern Mozambique Channel
be framed around Integrated Ocean Management –
balancing the multiple sectors and needs of the countries
of the region to grow and develop. Prior work in the WIO
State of Coast and Ocean Economy reports identified two
'opposite' futures that set the scene - "Conventional
Wold/Business as Usual" and "Sustainable World/Blue
Economy". The scenarios process will explore their
nuances in greater detail, and identify other plausible
futures.
Participating in the scenarios process
The TSP process brings diverse actors together,
establishing a dialogue that opens the way for solutions
that may transform participants' perspectives on the
future. It requires active and dedicated involvement
through a rigorous process:
• Personal interview for a subset of participants
• 2-day workshop to brainstorm on issues, key drivers
and opportunities (mid-Oct. 2017)
• 2-day workshop to construct scenario narratives
(likely early Dec. 2017)
• Consultation on communications and using scenarios
(early 2018)
The process is led and facilitated by a team of experts,
who ensure the views of all participants are heard and
come together to frame the vision around the final
scenarios.
After the workshops - using the scenarios
One value of scenarios is in co-creating them which
builds systemic understanding, relationships and trust
amongst stakeholders, and subsequently using them to
guide decision-making. Particularly where there are
competing sectors and interests, scenarios can be a
valuable tool to provide decision-makers, businessleaders
and civil society with common language and
understanding about the potential consequences of
certain choices. This helps to build the relationships and
trust needed to tackle the issues at hand, and commit to
long term solutions.
In the Northern Mozambique Channel, the scenarios will
guide the implementation of multi-stakeholder platforms
that will be important for Marine Spatial Planning in
coming years ii . The higher the level of participation in the
process, the quicker the concepts and benefits of
scenario-building can be built into high level decisionmaking.
In addition, the scenarios may provide key inputs at the
level of the Nairobi Convention and other regional
institutions (e.g. Indian Ocean Commission, Southern
Africa Development Community), as well as in bilateral
discussions between countries, and in national marine
planning processes.
About TSP - TSP places significant importance on convening as
diverse a group as possible, and pays attention to the different
normative views influencing the scenarios. Emphasis is placed
on scenarios as conversation starters toward deeper
understanding and more collaborative action for change. In this
way, scenarios are not the only outcome: more ambitious and
longer-term outcomes are stronger collaboration and shared
understanding between influential actors who have historically
worked in parallel or at cross-purposes.
Some relevant scenario process examples:
http://www.landreformfutures.org/
http://www.thefutureoffood.co.za/
http://www.dinokengscenarios.co.za/
http://reospartners.com/projects/scenarios-drug-problemamericas/
i
Multiple regional projects supported by the Global Environment Facility and implemented through UNEP, UNDP and the World Bank: WIOLAB -
Addressing Land Based Activities in the Western Indian Ocean Project (2002-2009); ASCLME - Agulhas-Somali Currents Large Marine Ecosystems
project (2008-2012); SWIOFP - South-West Indian Ocean Fisheries Project (2008-2012); WIOSAP - Western Indian Ocean Strategic Action
Programme (2017-2022); SAPPHIRE - Strategic Action Programme Policy Harmonization and Institutional Reforms (2018--2023).
ii
A proposal submitted to the French Facility for the Global Environment (FFEM) and due to start in early 2018 has as its main component to build
the multi-stakeholder platforms needed to bring all key stakeholders to the table in each country of the Northern Mozambique Channel. These will
provide the foundation for the development of Marine Spatial Planning frameworks in each country, and across the countries, using the scenarios
developed in this project, to achieve Integrated Ocean Management in the future.
For more information on this process, contact David Obura, CORDIO East Africa - dobura@cordioea.net. August 2017 2