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A new economy is blossoming. We need to tap into it with smart government policies and that starts with electing leaders who understand how the world is changing.’ Kerry is adamant that if we don’t ‘get serious’ about creating new opportunities, the ravaging is far from over, and points out that the US has already lost more departmentstore workers than the coal industry has lost miners, and that 50% of all US workers are likely to see a robot take their job in the next 20 years. But as America has adapted, so can the world. ‘In the early 1900s, 50% of US jobs were in agriculture. Today, only 2% of our population farms. We made that transition while our economy grew and unemployment dipped.’ Kerry’s point is crisp: right choices got his country through its last great job transition. Right choices can get all countries through the next great job transition. ‘Right choices’, then, would be…? ‘Maybe taxing technology to support workers who are replaced by robots. Maybe supporting lifelong learning and apprenticeship programmes. Or maybe reforming our school curricula so students aren’t being trained for jobs that no longer exist. ‘What is clear is that there are no instant solutions to all of this. But if we look back through history, we will see that people have always found a way to harness the technology of tomorrow and make it work for us, not against us.’ Come then to that great riddle, globalisation. To make it sustainable means somehow merging ‘own’ decision-making with universal access to product and labour. Is there a way to balance national interests with globalisation, for people to believe they’re in charge; that their factory on their soil is run in their interests, even when its machines and its people come from across the world? ‘As Secretary of State, I saw the world changing. I met engineering students in Brazil, restaurant owners in Ramallah and workers at an oil-processing facility in Angola. They all wanted exactly what we want in the States – economic opportunity. And no-one should fear them, their work, or their dreams. The global economy is not a zero-sum game; their success can be ours too. We just need to get the rules of the game right, so that we all stand on equal footing.’ 22 WISDOM
POPULISM & THE WORLD He is strong on the right kind of trade. ‘That’s the fi rst step in building an inclusive, prosperous future. No country can expect its economy to grow and generate new jobs if all it does is buy and sell to itself. Today, exports support almost 11 million American jobs. And that number is only going to go up. Why? Because 95% of the world’s customers live beyond our borders. Embracing globalisation is hard. But pretending that it doesn’t exist would be catastrophic.’ And to embrace that globalisation effectively? ‘Trade must always be balanced against national interest. Which is why countries need to live by a shared set of rules for trade. We know that fairness and opportunity in a globalised world require a playing fi eld where people believe they can compete and win. Only fair competition creates sustainable outcomes. So governments must insist on clear, enforceable standards. ‘If countries are going to open themselves to foreign trade, companies need to know that the legal system can enforce contracts, that politicians are willing to fi ght bribery and corruption, and elected offi cials will guarantee that promises made are promises kept. This not only helps the entire world to thrive, it helps domestic economies to grow. ‘The best way for any country to jump-start its economy is not through a new factory or a new oil well. It’s through the steady, rigorous application of the rule of law.’ Fine point, Mr Kerry, and widely shared, but fl ight is taking place from societies that have not managed that steady rigorous application. Would the countries that are seen as attractive destinations be right to see a horde of migrancy confl icts lining up to ambush them? ‘Whatever size the wall we build around our economy, it would hurt more than it would help. Instead of building walls, we need alliances and a mutual understanding of the rules of the road to ensure that workers and businesses the world over have a fair chance to compete. If we make trade more effi cient, enduring, and equitable, then we can achieve sustainable globalisation.’ It’s rare for political luminaries to come up with routes forward. John F. Kerry has been a stand-out exception here, arguing the case for a new Marshall Plan. How does he see this playing out? ‘Seventy years ago, war had reduced much of Europe to rubble. I remember seeing the destruction as a young boy living in a divided Berlin. And I will never forget playing in the charred remains of my mother’s family home in Saint Briac, France after the Nazis had turned their guns on its walls as they abandoned the occupied city. But what is also seared into my memory from those days is the gleaming plaques bolted to the walls of newly reconstructed buildings that read: “This building was rebuilt with help from the Marshall Plan.” ‘With the spectre of totalitarian regimes still haunting the continent, Europe had many wounds to bind, back then. And the United States stepped up. President Truman invested more than $12 billion in the recovery of Europe – that’s the equivalent of over $120 billion in today’s dollars. Decades later, the result is a prosperous and stable Europe. ‘Today, we again face a world on the edge. But this time it isn’t Europe that hangs in the balance. Poverty, hunger, and crumbling infrastructure hold back people from Afghanistan to Venezuela. ‘You’ve heard of the famous World War I song, ‘Over There’. Well, today, ‘over there’ is everywhere. Travel, trade, education, and smart phones connect the world. People everywhere are in touch. They know what everyone else has and therefore they know with greater emphasis what they don’t have. ‘What we need now is not a Marshall Plan for the 20th century; we need a new plan for the 21st century. We need to meet today’s development challenges with the same determination and commitment that characterised the original Marshall Plan. But this time we need a plan that is focused on developing countries and unlocking human potential. ‘This has to be a global effort. Today no country alone is able to put up the kind of capital that will amount to the trillions we need in order to create jobs and opportunity. To promote development, stability, and security abroad, the United States needs to partner with nations, businesses, and international institutions to produce a new plan. By leveraging private funding to complement foreign aid and domestic spending, we can achieve even greater impact in education, health care, and workforce development. ‘The return, both social and fi nancial, will be well worth it.’ Denis Beckett holds a BA LLB degree from the University of the Witwatersrand and is the founder and former editor of Frontline. He has written for The Sowetan, The Star, Beeld, City Press and Sunday Times, and now writes for Moneyweb.
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