Glacier Quarterly 1 - 2018

POLITICS
Why did Ramaphosa appoint such amazing individuals to the top
jobs in the economic portfolios yet retain some seriously questionable
individuals in others? The fact is that the ANC is still a divided house.
Ramaphosa’s reformist agenda will continue to be pushed back by
some within his own party because he is not totally in charge.
With his slim majority at the ANC conference in December, plus a
deeply divided ANC top six, concessions had to be made to the losing
side. Thus elements that had been discredited and yet were key to the
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma ticket were accommodated in the Cabinet
reshuffle. It doesn’t mean they are there to stay. Ramaphosa himself
has said that this is a transitional arrangement, meaning that once he
has amassed enough power and sway within the National Executive
Committee of the ANC, further change will come. Our expectation
is that a slimmer Cabinet, with fewer than 30 members, will be
announced after the 2019 elections. Then the dead wood will go.
There will be many other bumps on the political road ahead.
The first point of uncertainty is land expropriation without
compensation. Just a day after Ramaphosa’s Cabinet announcement
the National Assembly adopted a motion to investigate and review the
feasibility of land expropriation without compensation. It was an EFF
motion amended by the ANC.
This is a challenge for the Ramaphosa administration. Until clarity
and certainty about the road ahead can be brought to bear on the
issue, many will worry about what this means for the meaning and
upholding of property rights in South Africa. Ramaphosa, a former
businessman who is as affected by these issues as many investors
fretting about them, must surely be seized with the fact that such
uncertainty means a potential freeze on investment. Will he act swiftly,
slowly or play the long game?
The first point of
uncertainty is land
expropriation without
compensation
This is therefore the trend we find ourselves in for the next year:
the Ramaphosa rally will continue, but it will be muted by events such
as unclear policies (such as that over land and the National Health
Insurance scheme) and the reality of having poor ministers in place in
some portfolios.
South Africa’s political life through the ages has never been a
straight line. It’s full of progress and setbacks. This year promises to be
the same. Fortunately, with Ramaphosa at the helm of the ANC, we still
see more positives than negatives.
Justice Malala
Political commentator,
newspaper columnist, public
speaker and bestselling author