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EDITORIAL FrIdaY, MaY 25, 2018 4 Will the young in the UK vote Conservatives again? Acting Editor & Publisher : Jobaer Alam Telephone: +8802-9104683-84, Fax: 9127103 e-mail: editor@thebangladeshtoday.com Friday, May 25, 2018 Making the most of the demographic dividend Demographic dividend refers to a period - usually 20 to 30 years; when fertility rates fall due to significant reductions in child and infant mortality rates. As women and families realize that fewer children will die during infancy or childhood, they begin to have fewer children to reach their desired number of offsprings, further reducing the proportion of non-productive dependents. This fall is often accompanied by an extension in average life expectancy that increases the portion of the population that is in the working age group. This cuts spending on dependents and spurs economic growth. Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) means, "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population's age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older)." In other words, it is a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents. UNFPA stated that, a country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend. Bangladesh has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility and mortality during last four decades. Total fertility rate (TFR) has declined by 63.5% to 2.3 in 2010 during 1970- 2010. During the same period contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) has increased by 695% to 61.2 percent in 2011. During 1970-2010 mortality has also declined significantly. Infant mortality rate and under-five mortality has declined by at least 74% to 38 and 78.7% to 47 in 2010 per 1000 live births respectively, while maternal mortality ratio declined by 63 % to 240 per 100000 live births in 2010. During the same period life expectancy at birth has increased by 33.6% to 70.2 years in 2010. This has produced a huge shift in age structure of the population, with more population in working ages than in dependent ages. Dependents per 100 working population declined from over 100 in 1961 to 60 in 2010. This has created a window of economic opportunity that can be expressed as demographic dividend of Bangladesh. Demographic dividend helps improving living standards of the population through increased capital formulation, savings and investment, female participation in labor force, improved quality of labor force, slowing unsustainable fractionalizing of holding and releasing pressure of absorbing growing labor force on limited agricultural land and increased demand of goods and services But this demographic dividend is unlikely to last long for Bangladesh, as has been the case earlier with all other countries. This 'dividend' at present provides an opportunity to Bangladesh to make use of its working-age population for productive socio-economic activities. But the opportunity and the reality are not synonymous. For translating this opportunity into a reality, investments in both public and private sectors is one of the most critical factors. Besides, macro-economic strains, deficit of infrastructural facilities, problems about access to land, corruption, abrasive tax administration and political instability are impediments to boosting investments. All such factors merit a simultaneous attention to help create a synergy that can lead to a virtuous cycle of more investments, more jobs and more growth. The benefits of 'demographic dividend', however, must not be understood only in terms of additional numbers of jobs created. Quality of such jobs, gender participation, future growth momentum and its dynamism etc., are all important points for consideration. Creation of higher productivity jobs, intermediation of savings of the existing working-age population for investment in infrastructures and institutions, creation of greater opportunities for female labor force participation in high productivity decent jobs, etc., matter here. There is little scope to fritter away time by postponing hard, effective and decisive actions to make all these things happen sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the 'demographic dividend' will be lost as the current bulge in the country's working-age population will transform into a bulge in the elderly population within the next one decade or so. Furthermore, making the best out of the current 'demographic dividend' that Bangladesh enjoys is vitally important so that it can take timely steps for operating a funded pension system that will take care of the elderly. Once the demographics change, an ageing population scenario will emerge that requires huge resources to look after the needs of the elderly. In fact, there is a strong need for funding pension and other retirement funds, involving the insurance companies in Bangladesh, for employees in government, public and private sector agencies. And steps for this must be taken and made effective before the period of 'demographic dividend' in Bangladesh is over. Otherwise, things are most likely to turn for the worse, making it quite challenging to provide the much needed social security benefits or protection to the elderly population at, or upon, retirement. Policymakers and social scientists optimistically discuss the demographic dividend as if the benefits are imminent and within grasp. However, many developing countries, including Bangladesh, will not be able to achieve this economic benefit without appropriate policies and substantial investments in a number of areas. Indeed, as recent development history suggests, the demographic dividend is wasted if such policies and investments are not in place. Economists have identified four distinct ways the benefits of demographic dividend can be achieved. The first is the increased labor supply; however, the magnitude of this benefit will depend on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the additional workers. The second is through increase in savings (resulting from reduced dependency ratio) which, if and when invested, leads to higher productivity. The third is human capital. Fertility declines result in reduced economic pressures at home, thereby enabling parents to invest more in children's health and education, leading to healthy and educated labor force. The fourth is the increase in domestic demand resulting from the rise in per capita income and the reduced dependency ratio. Examine the headline figures of the political views of under-40s in the United Kingdom today - and weep, fellow Conservatives. New polling conducted by YouGov for the Centre for Policy Studies has revealed that nearly half of 18- to 24-year-olds say there is zero chance of them ever voting Tory. Among under-40s as a whole, those who say they are certain to vote Conservative is now less than one in 10. As someone who - just - falls into that age category, I find these figures depressing, but not entirely surprising. Voting Conservative has become countercultural for many people in Britain, Guardian readers among them. It's something that those of us who have campaigned and fought in Scotland over the past decade know well. But - after making gains in both the Scottish parliament and Westminster elections in recent years - it's also something that we know we can change. There are some lessons for the whole party in our experience. The recent success of the Scottish Conservatives can be attributed in part to the fact we have fought proudly for what we believe in: Scotland as part of the United Kingdom. We believe it's good for us all. We've sought to make an optimistic, positive case about that union, and many people have responded. And we have sought to take on the question of motive. I am on the centre-right in politics because I believe freedom and the liberal economic order is the best way to eliminate poverty and provide genuine equality of opportunity for all. We have, all too often, let our opponents write our history for us. In the past few years, Scottish Conservatives have sought to write their own history, tell their own story and speak about why they do what they do - and in so doing, remove some of the negative stereotypes that follow us. If they are to win over younger voters and others who currently see the Conservatives as anathema, what should those on the Conservative side of the fence do? First, those of us on the centre-right can be a little less shy of the values we espouse. And we can be rUTH davIdSoN raFIa zaKarIa confident that we are going with the grain, not against it. The younger generation, and society at large, is not yearning for a five-year plan of centrally delivered tractor quotas. Instead, Conservatives are a society that prizes individual autonomy and freedom of expression, and expects government to help us to achieve our goals, not set them. Conservatives should seek to embrace and we have sought to take on the question of motive. I am on the centre-right in politics because I believe freedom and the liberal economic order is the best way to eliminate poverty and provide genuine equality of opportunity for all. We have, all too often, let our opponents write our history for us. In the past few years, Scottish Conservatives have sought to write their own history, tell their own story and speak about why they do what they do - and in so doing, remove some of the negative stereotypes that follow us. this open, liberal outlook as a positive - and not a threat. But talk is one thing: we must also focus on finding practical solutions that meet the needs of people - because it is only through deeds that trust can be restored. Next week I will help launch Onward, a new think-tank, which will work to offer practical policies to support families across the country, focusing on the under-45s. Top of the list of priorities are policies that will make housing affordable again. As someone who has only in the past year got a foot on the housing ladder myself, I know how difficult it can be, even for people on a decent salary. We must do more to level up the playing field, take on vested interests, and free up affordable land. Or take education: Our system, across the UK, is fine and dandy if you're a well-placed student at university with a clear picture of your career path. But what about those who aren't? We need to do more for people for whom university isn't the right path, by boosting technical education courses and making sure people in their 20s and 30s and 40s who want extra training can get it. In both cases - in housing and education - we can use the power of strong government as an enabling force, to help people support themselves. The crash generation simply doesn't trust the motivation of the Right. Given the hand they've been dealt in the past decade, there's little wonder. A bolder narrative about the benefits of Britain's free society and a bit more practical delivery is required if we are to show we want to speak to all, and act for all. Source : Gulf news even in death, Sabika Sheikh brings people together She wanted to be a diplomat and make her country proud, but on Wednesday Sabika Sheikh's coffin, draped in a Pakistani flag, arrived in Karachi, the city where she was born and raised. This is not how her parents had expected to welcome her home. Last Friday morning, in the small rural town of Santa Fe, near Houston, Sabika was killed in a mass shooting by classmate Dimitrios Pagourtzis. She was one of the 10 who died at the hands of the gunman, who had taken his father's registered weapons to kill innocent people. At the time Sabika faced her last moments, her parents were in faraway Pakistan. Her father, Aziz Sheikh, had just finished iftar and logged on to his computer. There he saw what had happened and that the shooting was at Sabika's school. Terrified, he called her host parents, Jason and Joleen Cogburn. The next hours were the worst of his life, and they ended with the words no parent should ever have to hear: "She is gone, she is dead." Pakistanis are constantly sending their children abroad to seek better lives. Sabika was one of those children, mature for her 17 years and eager to make a contribution to the world. In a YouTube video she uploaded soon after she was selected for the exchange program that took her to Texas, she exclaimed she was "over the moon" at the opportunity. When she arrived in Texas, she gifted Joleen Cogburn a prayer shawl from Pakistan. Weeping, she wore it to Sabika's funeral prayers. IT is election season - political parties and pressure groups will resort to anything, stoop to any level, to make their opponents look bad, basically to prevent themselves from looking worse. Blaming opponents for one's own lack of performance does not appeal at the emotional level, however, hence nothing like an extra topping of parochialism. Just as when the country has nothing to show in terms of development and management of its water resources, it is always the neighbouring upper riparian country, the arch foe, the devil incarnate, who is blamed for 'stopping' our share of water. On the flip side, when the country gets inundated with floods, it is never our lack of disaster risk management, early warning systems, or the worsening ecology in which glaciers are melting faster than you can say freeze. The floods, too, are a conspiracy of the upper riparian. Since it shivers in fear of our 'strategic assets', the 'cowardly enemy' unleashes the fury of surplus water on us. To go by our leaders, everyone and no one is to blame. The same warped theory is employed by lower riparian provinces against the upper riparian within the country's water system. The other day, the ever entertaining Nisar Khuhro of Sindh's ruling PPP held a press conference in Hyderabad to thunder against Punjab, which he alleged is stealing Sindh's share of water under the 1991 water accord. He warned the upper riparian to mend its ways or else Sindh's The death of Sabika should prompt everyone to consider the connections between the pain of some small town in the United States and a family in bustling and frenetic Karachi. This connection of pain, in all its tragedy, illustrates how parents and communities can be united in the face of unspeakable catastrophes. No one would have predicted that a girl from a city where shootings and murders are an everyday occurrence would die in a small town in Texas that has a very low crime rate. Undoubtedly, her parents, like all parents who have to send their children away to pursue better lives in faraway lands, told themselves that she would likely be safer in Santa Fe than in Karachi. This was not the case. According to preliminary investigation reports, the gunman knew at least some of his victims. While it is not clear whether he knew Sabika, the contrast between the two is chilling. On one side, Sabika, a child of light and hope, eager to represent her faith and her country Follow the river farmers would block traffic going through the province towards Punjab and also hold a protest in Islamabad. Being a small, tail-end stakeholder in Sindh's irrigation system, one would welcome every drop of water in our parched canals and watercourses at this time of year. However, we cannot allow the elected representatives to insult our intelligence by passing the entire blame for Sindh's water woes on to Punjab. Can anyone point out when and how it stopped Sindh from undertaking water sector reforms? Is it Punjab that dictates to Sindh's large landholders to use their political and administrative muscle to divert smallholder and tail-enders' share of water? The law governing the Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority was passed in 1997, yet the Sindh Irrigation Department still exists in parallel to Sida. Why could only three area water boards be established in 21 years, when 14 were envisaged in 10 years' time to manage the irrigation water in a participatory manner? Why has the SHaHzad SHarJeel in a school whose students and teachers likely knew very little about either. On the other, a boy attracted to hatred, wearing Nazi symbols on his clothes and posting pictures of his T-shirt emblazoned with the words "Born to Kill." On the day that she died, Sabika had spoken to her younger sister Soha, who is only nine years old. She told her younger sibling that there were only 20 days left before they would be reunited. Sabika would not make it home alive, but the fact of her death does not mean that the forces of darkness and hatred that Pakistanis are constantly sending their children abroad to seek better lives. Sabika was one of those children, mature for her 17 years and eager to make a contribution to the world. In a YouTube video she uploaded soon after she was selected for the exchange program that took her to Texas, she exclaimed she was "over the moon" at the opportunity. When she arrived in Texas, she gifted Joleen Cogburn a prayer shawl from Pakistan. Weeping, she wore it to Sabika's funeral prayers. Pagourtzis represents have won. True respect to Sabika's spirit and commitment to mutual understanding means upholding the positivity and optimism that beam out from all her smiling photographs. Sabika was not afraid; she believed in the possibility of human beings to rise above ignorance and racism; she believed in the possibility of a better world and her role in it. Why else would a child leave a home that she loved and number of farmer organisations, who were to be given the management of irrigation water at the distributary level, not risen beyond 300 or so, and why has that number remained static since 2009? Was it the federal entity called the Indus River System Authority or the Punjab government who did not allow Sindh to develop and manage its water resources? Do question Irsa if it runs Taunsa and Chashma link canals without surplus water availability, but also address the equity question within the province regarding the water that does reach The same warped theory is employed by lower riparian provinces against the upper riparian within the country's water system. The other day, the ever entertaining Nisar Khuhro of Sindh's ruling PPP held a press conference in Hyderabad to thunder against Punjab, which he alleged is stealing Sindh's share of water under the 1991 water accord. Sindh. While we are at it, would anyone in the provincial administration care to enlighten us as to how many thousands of acres in Sindh have been shifted to a high efficiency irrigation system using the drip method that provides water direct to crops' roots, saves inputs like fertiliser and pesticides, and increases yield manifold? Or are we still tethered to flood irrigation, where most of the water goes to waste because the small farmer has no voice and the large holders can steal water, get bigger the siblings and parents that she adored for a foreign land? Even in death, Sabika has continued to bring people together. Her funeral prayers brought about 2,000 people to Houston's Masjid Al-Sabireen, many of whom had likely never been inside a mosque. The Spring Interfaith Dialogue Council, a group that promotes interfaith understanding, issued a statement saying: "We stand with you in solidarity and will continue to work to end the prevalence of gun violence in our schools. We will hold her memory close and ensure that her legacy lives on in Houston." The group Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America also expressed outrage at what happened to Sabika. Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee, who represents Houston, and the city's Mayor Sylvester Turner also expressed their condolences. None of this, of course, provides any solace to the parents and siblings most hurt by Sabika's loss. In an instant, it seems, a family in Pakistan was caught up in an epidemic that is taking so many lives in the US. Along with all of the American children who have died because of senseless gun violence, because of political apathy, because no one was willing to protect them, there is now one Pakistani child. A bright, smiling young girl from Gulshan-e-Iqbal, who was fasting when she was killed, whose name was Sabika Sheikh. Source : Arab News outlets, special allocations and have loans written off. In only March this year, the Balochistan Assembly passed a resolution demanding that Sindh stop stealing its share of water. Neither was it the first time that Bolan had this complaint against Mehran. There was also some noise at the PPP presser that, while Sindh was faced with an acute shortage, water at Mangla reservoir was being used to generate electricity. Remember the fracas some time ago, when the federal ministry of water and power asked K-Electric to not rely heavily on cheaper hydropower from the national grid, and run its thermal power plants, which were sitting idle in breach of the privatisation agreement? At that time, it was a conspiracy against Sindh to deprive it of hydropower. To be fair to Sindh, the rest of the country also needs to understand that the flow of fresh water downstream Kotri into the Indian Ocean is not a waste at all. It is an absolute necessity to keep the mangrove forests alive, our best bet against sea intrusion. If we allow everything to become a zero-sum game, very soon we will have districts competing with provinces for water, and cities protesting against rural areas, claiming that people in villages have the audacity to water their crops while people in Karachi lack drinking water. Winning an election is important, but not by misleading the electorate. Source : Dawn
STRATEGIC ISSUES FriDay, May 25, 2018 5 the amorous russia-south Korea partnership tiMOtHy stanley Amidst all the concrete and neon of Seoul's downtown, there is a small park on a hill from which rises, rather incongruously, a renaissance-styled white tower. This tower is all that's left of the former Russian Legation, which was housing tsarist diplomats in 1896 when Korea's King Gojong secretly fled there following the assassination of his mother at the n e i g h b o r i n g Gyeongbokgung palace. Granted sanctuary, he ruled his kingdom from here for over a year until the situation had stabilized sufficiently for him to return to his palace with the new title of emperor. Following the extraordinary scenes at the 2018 inter-Korean Summit, and with stability on the Korean Peninsula now pending for the first time in decades, there will be many people in the Kremlin hoping that Korea can now return the historical favor and provide investment to a Russia struggling under an increasingly stringent international sanctions regime. On a recent visit to Seoul, I met with a number of clients from a range of different businesses and sectors: a governmentowned investment bank; the trading arm of one of the giant chaebols, which continue to dominate the economy; a listed private sector entertainment company; and an international law firm. In conversation with these different actors, it quickly became clear that South Korean business struggles to reconcile two competing views of Russia: the historical legacy as successor state to the Soviet Union, and the great commercial opportunity it now offers. The two questions I was asked most frequently deal with the increasingly stringent sanctions regimes that the United States and Western partners have imposed on Russia since 2014 (Seoul has not adopted these or imposed any sanctions of its own, but remains concerned about becoming collateral damage); and with Russia's interests in the Korean peninsula, in light of its historic track record supporting the North Korean regime but more nuanced recent approach signing up to limited sanctions following the nuclear tests and taking a back-seat in negotiations. Many South Korean businesspeople continue to view Russia with suspicion and struggle to separate contemporary Russia from the Soviet Union, the power that provided economic and materiel support to North Korea during the brutal 1950-1953 war and continued to prop up the Kim regime for several decades thereafter. This attitude may not be a economic links between south Korea and russia are a welcome byproduct of the inter- Korea thaw. Photo: rPPiO characteristic unique to South Korea, but diplomatic relations between the two countries were only established in 1990 and the closeness of the ROK-U.S. relationship military relationship for the past half-century invariably means many in South Korea are influenced by the United States' hostile attitude toward Russia. That said, the diplomatic and economic relationship between the countries has been on a clear upward trajectory; in addition to South Korea's Moscow embassy, there are now a further six consulates across Russia (in Rostov-on-Don, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, Yekaterinburg, and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk) reflecting the communities of ethnic Koreans who have long been a feature of the region and representing one of the largest non-native populations across this multiethnic country. Many analysts point out that the two economies are complementary, with South Korea offering economic investment and advanced technology, and Russia providing natural resources and raw materials. The opportunity to participate in the creation of infrastructure in Russia's underdeveloped and sparsely populated Far East region in and around Vladivostok is therefore a tempting, if risky, proposition. The costs associated with improving infrastructure could reach $67 billion, three-quarters of which will be spent on road and rail and will largely benefit South Korean businesses. In 2013 the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and the Korean Investment Corporation (KIC), both government-controlled and directed investment initiatives, signed a joint memorandum to create a Russian-Korean Investment Platform, with the objective of facilitating cross-border investments of strategic interest to the two parties. Initially progress was slow, limited to dull but necessary actions such as air and sea links between the countries, trade fairs, and some light manufacturing. the Pacific islands leaders Meeting provided an opportunity for Japan to respond to Chinese influence in the region. Photo: PMO Japan Japan’s Pacific diplomacy Daniel Hurst Japan has sought to deepen its ties to the Pacific Islands by rolling out a capacity-building program for 500 people, aimed at upholding maritime order and sustainable ocean management. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiled the measures, to be carried out over the next three years, as he hosted the 8th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) in Japan's Fukushima prefecture on May 18 and 19. The pledge underscored a greater focus at this year's summit on maintaining a free and open maritime order based on the rule of law - a key priority of Japan's diplomacy at a time when China is exerting ever-growing influence in the region. Japan has not been standing still when it comes to deepening links to the Pacific Islands: at the previous PALM meeting, three years ago, it announced a 55 billion yen ($460 million) assistance package for the region. Construction of one element of that plan, the Pacific Climate Change Center in Samoa, began earlier this month. And Japan has been working to boost its diplomatic presence in the region, including with the dispatch of business missions. People-topeople exchanges are also expanding. The PALM process is a key vehicle for Tokyo to enhance such relationships. It provides a chance for the Japanese prime minister to meet every three years with leaders and representatives from Pacific Islands Forum members, including Australia, the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The summit-level initiative began in 1997. In this year's joint statement, the members sketched out a strategic vision for their partnership, starting with maintaining stability through rules-based order. This element boiled down to respecting sovereignty, the rule of law, and the peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law. Other points in the shared vision included "self-sustained and sustainable" economic development; active people-to-people exchanges; and robust regional institutions with a view to achieving even greater regional cooperation and integration. In a speech, Abe said the countries would work together on upholding the maritime order in the Pacific, because "it is the rule of law that gives protection to the nations, big and small, for their inherent rights." Perhaps anxious to avoid the appearance of a big power dictating to smaller ones, Abe also told his Pacific counterparts that Tokyo would "work to develop quality infrastructure in both 'hard' and 'soft' aspects so that you are able to realize sustainable prosperity in a selfreliant manner." This comes amid intense focus on China's role in the region, which includes the expansion of aid funding and provision of low-interest loans for sometimes-criticized infrastructure projects. The joint statement said the leaders believed that projects including sea ports and airports should be developed "in an open, transparent, non-exclusive and sustainable manner, in accordance with international standards, which also respect sovereignty and peaceful use of such infrastructure." When asked at a media briefing whether PALM's emphasis on maritime order and high-quality infrastructure had any connection to China's activities, a Japanese foreign ministry official replied: "This is a common standard, a common idea, a common vision - everyone can share it - so it is not directed at China." Another official at the briefing added that Pacific Islands had particular concerns about illegal fishing and organized crime at sea, and those issues could be addressed under the rule-of-law banner. For the first time, the PALM joint statement included a section on North Korea - another key concern for Japan, which has continued to argue for a "maximum pressure" approach toward the regime. The leaders voiced appreciation for the inter-Korean summit held in late April and expressed hope that the anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "would deliver North Korea's concrete actions". as tashkent and Washington revive their strategic partnership, eyes are on reforms. Photo: Facebook Bringing balance to us-uzbekistan relations CatHerine Putz After delivering brief remarks following a working lunch with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who is the first Uzbek president to visit the White House since Islam Karimov in 2002, U.S. President Donald Trump responded to shouted questions about North Korea. And therein lies the unfortunate reality of U.S.-Uzbekistan relations: they will likely always take a backseat to more pressing concerns in Washington and as such, American policy toward Uzbekistan may continue to lack the nuance the relationship deserves. That said, there's an opportunity to rebalance U.S. relations with Uzbekistan, which have been relatively dysfunctional for some time. Mirziyoyev's visit to Washington was a success on many fronts. The joint statement published after the meeting announced the "launching of a new era of strategic partnership." The commitment to "reinvigorate" the strategic partnership between the United States and Uzbekistan demonstrates the normalization of a relationship that has swung wildly over the years. As Navbahor Imamova wrote for The Diplomat earlier today, "The U.S. tacked from partnership to hostility, back to partnership, once again to hostility, and then finally back to partnership." There were triggers for each swing - the Andijan massacre in 2005, the deterioration of U.S.-Pakistan relations in 2009 - but settling a decent balance between criticism and assistance was difficult during the Karimov era and will continue to be difficult for similar reasons. Here, in the early days of the Mirziyoyev era, the buzzword is "reform." Mirziyoyev, who served as Karimov's prime minister for more than a decade, has taken a different tack in orienting Uzbekistan within Central Asia (as a good neighbor) and in the larger region (as a connector and convener). Reforms have touched many sectors, with economic reforms the centerpiece. Currency convertibility, for example, makes Uzbekistan a more attractive investment destination. Uzbekistan signed over $4.8 billion in contracts and agreements with U.S. business this week. While in the joint statement, Trump "recognized Uzbekistan's tremendous progress on important political, economic, and social reforms under the leadership of President Mirziyoyev," regional observers may be more circumspect. Reforms - in rhetoric and decrees - have touched on social and political issues, but tangible progress has been slower to come. In a statement from 12 human rights organizations ahead of the visit urging the U.S. Congress (not, interestingly, Trump himself) to press Uzbekistan on human rights issues, Muzaffar Suleymanov of Civil Rights Defenders said, "We welcome the pace of changes in the country, but more needs to be done to improve Uzbekistan's tarnished human rights record." While first deputy chairman of the Senate of the Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan's parliament, Sodiq Safoyev mentioned the need for a new parliament, for fresh faces, there's been little mention of political opposition. As Peter Leonard pointed out in an article for Eurasianet aimed at pouring a little cold water on the excitement over Uzbekistan's reforms, Ikhtiyor Abdullayev, head of the State Security Service (the rebranded SNB), reportedly said in March, "We have information that the non-state opposition parties Erk and Birlik have appealed to the Justice Ministry. Their main goal today is to legalize their activities, and for tomorrow it is disrupt peace and tranquility in our country." Viewing opposition parties as disruptive doesn't bode well for true political reform in Uzbekistan. On the free press front, while Tashkent recently accredited its first American journalist, Navbahor Imamova of the Voice of America, BBC Uzbek is more than nine months in waiting for promised credentials and Uzbekistan recently denied a visa to a New York Times reporter. Then again, Trump - as demonstrated in his tweets and rally statements - doesn't appear to care terribly much about political opposition or press freedoms. In other areas, Trump and Mirziyoyev seem to have a degree of synergy. In their brief remarks at the White House, Trump and Mirziyoyev traded compliments. Trump referred to Mirizyoyev (without trying to say his name) as "a highly respected man in his country and throughout." Mirziyoyev, in turn, lauded Trump on his "historical tax reforms" and job creation in the United States, easily playing to Trump's ego with flattery. After mentioning trade and mutual investments, Trump also noted that the United States and Uzbekistan were "working together from the standpoint of the military, including his purchase of equipment and military equipment from the United States." No details on that front have been made available. U.S.-Uzbek relations have long centered on security issues such as counterterrorism and the war in Afghanistan. This aspect of the relationship was strained in 2005 after the Andijan massacre. Harsh criticism from the United States was met with the eviction of the U.S. from a military base - K2 - near the Afghan border. But by 2009, trouble with Pakistan resulted in the development of a logistic networks through Central Asia and in 2015, when the United States was in the midst of the Obama administration's withdrawal Washington donated 308 MRAPs to Uzbekistan. Mirziyoyev and his delegation didn't come to Washington begging for aid; they came with business propositions and similar concerns about Afghanistan. With U.S.-Pakistan relations at a dangerous low and Pakistan rocked with internal political churning ahead of elections in July, a stable security partner in Uzbekistan is much desired. According to the joint statement, Mirziyoyev "assured continued support for the Northern Distribution Network and its contribution to achieving peace and stability in Afghanistan." What are China’s maritime ambitions? BOnnie GirarD Retired U.S. Navy Captain James Fanell's assessment of China's goals, capabilities, and probable path in the increasing modernization and size of its forces was laid out last week in remarks to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Hearing on "China's Worldwide Military Expansion." Fanell's 64-page testimony is an important read for analysts and interested parties of all stripes, whether or not one ultimately agrees with all of his conclusions or recommendations. As much treatise as testimony, the arguments presented by the intrepid former head of Naval Intelligence for the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet could not have come at a more opportune moment: China just landed a nuclear-capable aircraft on an island in the South China Sea. The action underscores Fanell's detailed premise on China's ambitions, and supports his central argument that the United States must comprehensively recalibrate both China policy and Chinarelated behavior, while rebuilding the U.S. Navy to levels that can at least match China's projected naval strength. He projects that "in 12 years, the PLA Navy most likely will have twice as many warships and submarines as the US Navy." Fanell is wellknown in policy circles for his frank and unvarnished analyses of China's long-term political and military mission and its strategy for achieving it. He is also known for having been removed from his post as Chief Intelligence Officer shortly after giving a paper at the 2014 WESTConference, sponsored by the U.S. Naval Research Center, in which he predicted that China might be preparing for a "short, sharp war" with Japan. The prevailing American political atmosphere at the time stressed supporting the rise of a peaceful China, not challenging it, or couching China's growing power in terms of a threat. Fanell offers time has come to rebuild us navy and counter Chinese strategies in the pacific. Photo: us navy an intriguing insight into the distinction between himself and other China hands: "I spent 28 years watching what China does with its navy - like Jane Goodall watching gorillas - every day, observing and recording their movements. Then I analyzed their activities and projected what they'll do next." By using a scientific method to arrive at and draw his conclusions, Fanell is able to layer his testimony with an equal blend of logic and learned expertise, adding a legitimacy to his predictions that a more politicallyminded analyst might not have. Fanell's central premise is that "the strategic balance has shifted in the PRC's favor and against America's security and interests." However, he continues, it is not just America that is compromised by China's military expansion; it is much of the rest of the world, as well. "China's unilateral expansion into and through the international waters within the First Island Chain-or what Beijing now calls China's 'Blue Territories'-over the past six years has dramatically altered the strategic balance of power in the Indo-Asia Pacific region," he argues. In addition, Fanell cites Chinese "unprecedented and increasing naval operations" from the Pacific to the Atlantic, from the Arctic to the Antarctic, as "empirical indicators".
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