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EDITORIAL FRIDAY, AUgUST 10, 2018 4 Acting Editor & Publisher : Jobaer Alam Telephone: +8802-9104683-84, Fax: 9127103 e-mail: editor@thebangladeshtoday.com Friday, August 10, 2018 Accreting lands from the sea A present formidable problem for Bangladesh apparently is land shortage. But there is also good news. Although there has been a long standing projection about a part of Bangladesh's coastal areas sinking into the sea in the near future from the greenhouse syndrome, regularly received satellite imageries and other tangible supporting evidences suggest that Bangladesh is rather about to receive the gift of a huge land mass from its adjoining sea from gradual deposition of silt brought down by rivers. The size of this land mass, eventually, could be as big as the present size of Bangladesh or even bigger. But it will depend considerably on what the Bangladeshis themselves do-- like the people of Holland did --for lands to rise from the sea and for the same to be joined to the mainland. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is no doubt the most authoritative forum as regards worldwide climate change and its consequences. But some years ago, IPCC had to eat its own words and confess that some of its projections were flawed such as the imminent disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers that could most dramatically raise sea levels in the South Asian region. Scientific data also indicate that nothing can be absolutely said, yet, about the extent of sea level rise or the height of its occurrences in different parts of the world. Thus, it may eventually become quite possible for Bangladesh to gain in elevation or new lands in its coastal areas in the likelihood of deposition of silt in its coastal areas being faster or greater than the anticipated sea level rise in this region. Unfortunately, nothing has been noted so far in the country's annual development plans (ADPs) to the effect that successive governments have been paying attention to this issue. Hardly allocations have been made over the years to build dams and other structures to put a pace to the process of accretion of coastal lands. This attitude, undoubtedly, is a serious neglect of the vital national interest. Already, substantial territories have surfaced in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Some of these places have completely surfaced and have human habitations on them while others remain submerged during tides to emerge with the ebbing of the tide. The latter types of accreted lands are likely to gain in elevation to be permanently joined to the mainland. Indeed, a part of present day Bangladesh including the districts of Faridpur, Barisal, Noakhali, Patuakhali, etc., were formed in this manner over time. The country is likely to get a generous response from the international community in matters of fund availability and technical supports if it can show that it is really keen to accrete more lands and has put the endeavour under a systematic policy framework. Holland is one country which has the most experience in getting lands out of the sea. Bangladesh may not have to embark on projects on the same scale as were carried out in Holland because of its relatively better elevation. It can use its huge reservoir of cheap manpower to build simpler projects to get the same kind of results as were achieved in Holland. But for this purpose it needs to engage in a time-bound and result oriented framework of assistance and consultation with that country. Even if Bangladesh ultimately requires sophisticated engineering works along its coasts like in Holland, it should engage in this task with no loss of time. Government in Bangladesh should go all out to get a major part of the international fund now under mobilization to help out the countries most likely to be affected by climate change. These funds ought not to be spent largely on attractive environmental projects such as planting trees along the coasts, dredging of rivers, etc., but on what would be the most effective long term defences against sea level rise like the sea-walls in Holland. Even if external aid is not forthcoming, the government can proceed with dams and other structures where these will yield almost immediate benefits in the form of lands rising from the sea on a sustainable basis. The taking up of such projects and their successful execution are quite possible for Bangladesh by mobilising its own resources and applying its own expertise. One may say that the cyclone hazards can be serious in the coastal areas. But these hazards are not as these used to be in the past. Few people have died from these cyclones in recent years and much less resources were destroyed from cyclones . The creation of a network of cyclone shelters and other forms of preparedness for disasters have led to such favourable developments. With the establishment of a greater number of cyclone shelters and extending the system of preparedness, there would be no reason for a far bigger number of people than at present not to be living and working safely in viable occupations in the coastal areas including the already accreted lands and the about to be accreted lands. Politics over Indian citizenship: no time for blame games Since the final draft of India's National Register of Citizens (NRC) was released in the state of Assam, there has been uproar all over the country - including in the two houses of Parliament. The opposition launched a full attack on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for alleged exclusion of Muslims. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, leader of the All India Trinamool Congress party, has vociferously attacked the process, terming it as a process for non-inclusion of Muslims, Bengalis and Biharis living in Assam. She even sent a party delegation to the state, which was detained at Silchar Airport by the state administration. All of the criticism is due to noninclusion of 4 million people in the final draft of the NRC out of the total population of 32 million. The NRC is a list of Indian citizens of Assam and was first prepared in 1951 based on that year's census. When party politics takes over, the main issue to be discussed gets sidetracked, and the case of the NRC is no different. First of all, the NRC process was initiated on the instructions of the Supreme Court of India, and the court itself is monitoring the whole process of identification of original citizens of India living in the state of Assam. So blaming the country's ruling party the BJP - which also happens to be the ruling party of Assam - for the issue is not right. The updating of the NRC is following the principles of the Assam Accord signed in 1985 between the government of India then led by prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and the All Assam Students' Union. The Last week, United States President Donald Trump promised to withdraw from Syria. This week, he opened a new front against Syrian President Bashar Al Assad that risks drawing the US into a broader conflict there. By attacking Al Assad yesterday, the Trump administration sought to warn the Syrian leader against continuing to use illegal chemical warfare agents, following the gassing of civilians near Damascus last week. The administration calculated that the need to send a signal to Al Assad over chemical weapons outweighed the possibility of provoking a response from his allies, Russia or Iran, on the battlefield in Syria, elsewhere in the Middle East or even in cyberspace. The risk, analysts say, is that the US would then end up in a cycle of escalation that entangles the American military more deeply in the Syrian conflict than the administration intended. "Given the linkage between Russia, Iran and Al Assad, an attack that we would consider limited and precise might be misconstrued by one or more of those three parties and justify from their perspective a retaliatory strike," said retired US Army Lt General James Dubik, a senior fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. "Then what do we do?" Possible scenarios for a retaliation include attacks by Iranian-backed militias against US forces in the Middle East, stepped-up incidents against US forces and their allies within Syria or "asymmetric responses" such as cyberattacks entirely outside the theatre accord was signed to free Assam from illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. Although the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government initiated the updating of the NRC, it later stopped the process. The process was renewed after the Supreme Court's verdict in 2013. However, it was only when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance came to power that the process was given priority. However, there are some sections within the state and the country who never wanted this process to happen. There were reports from a group of indigenous Assamese Muslims that they were being provoked by an international group against the NRC. But it was Mamata Banerjee's provocative speech that added fuel to the fire. Her statement that the NRC was a tool to drive Muslims and Bengali and Bihari Hindus out of Assam and that it would result in "civil war" doesn't suit her stature, as she herself is a chief minister of a state. The process is for identification of foreigners - the Bangladeshis residing in the state. It is true that many genuine itself. It remains unclear whether the strike will prevent Al Assad's forces from turning to chemical weapons in the future as the leader seeks to extend his reach across the country while consolidating gains in the civil war. Robert Ford, a former US ambassador to Syria and fellow at the Middle East Institute and Yale University, said military action would deter Al Assad's forces from using chemical weapons only if the US conducts follow-up strikes when new atrocities occur. "I don't think, in order to make the deterrent stick, that this can be the last attack," Ford said. The former US diplomat, who said Al Assad's forces were using chemical weapons in part because they lack manpower, predicted the Syrian leader "will test us - and we will have to do this again". Trump promised that the strikes wouldn't necessarily be a one-off. "We are prepared to sustain this response until the Syrian regime stops its use of prohibited chemical agents," the US president said in SAgARNEEl SINHA PAUl SoNNE citizens didn't feature in the NRC list. But as the state coordinator of the NRC, Prateek Hajela, said, it's a manual process, so errors couldn't be ruled out, and it's only a draft, not the final list. The 4 million citizens whose names didn't feature will be given a chance to verify themselves - only then would the final list be prepared. Already, the Supreme Court has ruled that those left out won't be liable to any action until the final list is prepared. Their names will not be removed from the electoral rolls according to Election Commission of India, as it will take some time to finalize the NRC and the EC has to prepare the rolls by January in preparation for next year's general elections. So these citizens are not stateless and are not going to detention camps, as rumored by some. One of the main reasons names were not listed in the NRC is non-verification of documents by many state governments and union territories. Around 570,000 documents were sent for verification and some states including West Bengal, Bihar, Meghalaya, Manipur and Chandigarh an address at the White House late on Friday night. Some who support the strikes say that even if they fail to prevent Al Assad from using chemical weapons in the future, they will send the message that the international community is watching and intends to enforce the ban on chemical weapons that countries instituted after the First World War. British Prime Minister Theresa May said the strikes, which the United Kingdom and France participated in, would "send a clear signal to anyone else who believes they can use chemical weapons with impunity". Referring to the recent nerve-agent attack on a former Russian spy living in Salisbury, England, she said: "We cannot allow the use of chemical weapons to become normalised - within Syria, on the streets of the UK or anywhere else in our world." But the military intervention also comes as Washington has all but given up on seeking the removal of Al Assad more than seven years into Syria's civil DR. THEoDoRE kARASIk returned only 2-7% of the documents after verification. Mamata Banerjee's West Bengal returned only 6% of the documents after verification. Around 100,000 documents were not verified by her government. As usual, Banerjee chose to train her guns on the BJP, the emerging opposition in her own citadel, by playing the card of the BJP being anti-Bengali. However, the truth is many Bengalis would have found their names on the list had Banerjee's administration verified those documents sent by the NRC officials. Other organizations - banks, the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI), the External Affairs Ministry (for passports) and various federal departments - also did not return many files after verification. Only about 40% of verified documents reached the NRC officials in time for the preparation of the final draft. Another significant reason is some people's failure to prove their linkages with persons in the legacy data, that is, the collective list of the NRC data of 1951 and electoral rolls up to midnight of March 24, 1971. That's why there are many cases where members from the same family are not equally listed - some were featured and others were not. Also, many children didn't find their names on the list despite their parents being listed. According to Indian law, if the parents are Indian, automatically children gain Indian citizenship. However, because of errors in documents, even minor spelling mistakes, many names didn't feature. Source : Asia Times Strikes on Syria risk retaliation, escalation in a war US wants to avoid war. Trump wants the Pentagon to withdraw US troops after the Kurdishled militia Washington is backing in Syria finishes off the remnants of the Daesh terror group. The departure of US troops, military strategists say, will likely pave the way for Al Assad's consolidation of control in the country, backed by Russia, Iran and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. The result is what US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis described in congressional testimony on Thursday as "contrary impulses". On the one hand, Trump wants the US to have nothing to do with Syria. On the other, he wants to dictate norms of behaviour on Syria's battlefield that upset him when violated. Those who take a dim view of selective strikes in response to chemical weapons usage say the US has given up trying to ensure the departure of Al Assad, which means his forces will continue to kill whomever they wish as they consolidate control, even if they do so with conventional weapons. "As long as you have a strategy that leaves Al Assad in place and allows him to slaughter his people as he sees fit, he is going to do so," said Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "And he is probably going to use chemical warfare agents." But for Washington to stop Al Assad from killing his own citizens more broadly, "we're getting closer to a regimechange scenario because he's bombing almost every day," said Ford, the former US ambassador. Source : Gulf News Home For regime's henchmen, poison bombs are a family business Naturally, Syria's possession of chemical weapons is at the core of Saturday's missile strikes. Syrian President Bashar Assad's chemical weapons program continued to operate with impunity until Saturday. To be sure, Syria did not declare all its stockpiles and capacities to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons on its accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in October 2013. Syria also omitted the Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC), whose work on chemical weapons and ballistic missile systems is notable given that it was known to be an active research center for decades. The SSRC managed at least four chemical agent manufacturing plants - at Dumayr, Khan Abou, Shamat and Furklus - and operated additional storage sites dispersed across the country in about 50 different towns and cities before the beginning of the civil war. Only recently has Syria agreed to declare certain SSRC activities under the CWC, but failure to declare any urban use of chemical weapons warranted the airstrikes by a coalition of Western countries. Syria failed to declare the sites at Barzeh and Jemraya too, eventually doing so only in 2018. French security services also When party politics takes over, the main issue to be discussed gets sidetracked, and the case of the NRC is no different. First of all, the NRC process was initiated on the instructions of the Supreme Court of India, and the court itself is monitoring the whole process of identification of original citizens of India living in the state of Assam. So blaming the country's ruling party the BJP - which also happens to be the ruling party of Assam - for the issue is not right. Robert Ford, a former US ambassador to Syria and fellow at the Middle East Institute and Yale University, said military action would deter Al Assad's forces from using chemical weapons only if the US conducts follow-up strikes when new atrocities occur. "I don't think, in order to make the deterrent stick, that this can be the last attack," Ford said. sought to inquire about possible remaining stocks of yperite (mustard gas) and DF (a sarin precursor); undeclared chemical weapons of small caliber that may have been used on several occasions, including during the attack on Khan Sheikhoun in April 2017; signs of the presence of VX and sarin on production and loading sites; and possible signs of the presence of chemical agents that have never been declared, including nitrogen mustard, lewisite, soman and VX. America and other Western powers, too, saw the same evidence of an active Syrian chemical weapons program. The use of chemical weapons in Syria is an Assad family affair along with close allies within the security apparatus. The use of chemical weapons in Syria is an Assad family affair along with close allies within the security apparatus. Assad and some of his closest advisers order the use of chemical weapons. Maher Assad, The use of chemical weapons in Syria is an Assad family affair along with close allies within the security apparatus. Assad and some of his closest advisers order the use of chemical weapons. Maher Assad, Bashar's younger brother and commander of the powerful 4th Armored Division, is directly implicated in the decision-making process to use barrel bombs laced with chemical weapons. The 155th Missile Brigade, which was responsible for launching the sarin-filled rockets used in many attacks, is subordinate to the 4th Armored Division. Bashar's younger brother and commander of the powerful 4th Armored Division, is directly implicated in the decision-making process to use barrel bombs laced with chemical weapons. The 155th Missile Brigade, which was responsible for launching the sarinfilled rockets used in many attacks, is subordinate to the 4th Armored Division. The UN Security Council's Joint Investigative Mechanism identified the Syrian government, and specifically Assad and his close allies, as being responsible for the orders to use chemical weapons in urban war zones. Indeed, according to Western intelligence officials, Assad has delegated day-to-day decisionmaking on chemical weapons use to his senior commanders. These officials include Maj. Gen. Rafiq Shihadah, the former director of military intelligence who still serves as an adviser to the president on strategic affairs; Maj. Gen. Mohammed Mahmud Mahalla, the current director of military intelligence; Maj. Gen. Jamil Hassan, the director of air force intelligence; and Maj. Gen. Mohammed Khalid Rahmun, the head of the political security directorate. These officials are probably also members of the "crisis cell" established by Assad at the outset of the uprising to coordinate the regime's response. The key question here is what comes next. If Assad uses chemical weapons again there will be more targeted strikes against facilities, especially the command and control of Syria's chemical weapons use. Source : Arab News
STRATEGIC ISSUES FRIDAY, AUgUST 10, 2018 5 How much India will be affected by US-Iran sanctions? Paras Ratna The Iranian nuclear deal fiasco has made the whole world anxious. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on May 8 that the United States will withdraw from the deal and planned to reinstate sanctions against the Iranian government. The sanctions were reimposed this week, making good on Trump's threat. The scrapping of the nuclear deal is bound to have widespread repercussions for the regional security architecture in particular and global polity in general. Given New Delhi's engagement not only with the United States and Iran but also with other significant Middle East countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, the diplomatic headache resulting from these sanctions has multiplied for India. India is increasingly finding itself between a rock and a hard place following the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley's advice for India "to rethink their relationship with Iran" shows Washington's attempt to manipulate India. For New Delhi, though, changing the relationship with Tehran is easier said than done. India and Iran share historical ties, though this dimension of the India-Iran relationship is often ignored. The two shared common borders until the partition of the subcontinent in 1947. Persian influence on Mughal architecture is pervasive. Formal diplomatic ties between India and Iran were established in 1950. Presently, Iran is India's third largest supplier of crude oil. However, the India-Iran relationship transcends oil. India, with an investment of $500 million, aims to develop Iran's Chabahar port as a transit hub for Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Additionally, India is developing two gas fields, namely Farzad-B gas field located in Tehran and the South Pars field located between Iran and Qatar. These projects clearly highlight India's longterm engagement with Iran. U.S. sanctions would severely stymie the above projects and investments. Although these sanctions are unilateral sanctions, imposed by Washington alone, the Trump administration has made it clear that no company or country dealing with Iran would be given access to the U.S. financial and banking system. More than 80 percent of India's oil is imported through foreign tankers, thereby making India's energy security contingent upon the U.S. sanctions. Similarly, the sanctions would impact investments in Chabahar as well as Farzad and South Pars oil field. Foreign companies and even Indian multinational companies with operations in the United States or dependent on the American financial system are planning to withdraw operations from Iran with the advent of sanctions. The State Bank of India has already announced it will suspend payment operations in Iran starting from November. Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) too has decided to halt its oil imports from Iran. In the past, India was able to successfully negotiate waivers pertaining to Iran from the United States. The previous Obama administration maintained sanctions on Iran but granted waivers to India. Now, New Delhi aims for an arrangement of the same kind with the Trump administration. At a time when both India and the United States want to forge a strong relationship, diplomatic dexterity should be prioritized over transactional orthodoxy. Iran shouldn't be allowed to be the third wheel in India-U.S. relations. However, there is more at stake for India than its relationship to Washington. In addition to the above complexities, India needs to maintain the fragile Shia- Sunni balance while simultaneously factoring in the concerns of Iran's rival Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Besides oil, these India's diplomatic predicament just got worse. Photo: Flickr countries have a huge Indian diaspora and are also the largest source of remittances (accounting for approximately 36 percent of the total India receives). There have been already attempts by Saudi Arabia and UAE to entice India. Companies like Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Company (ADNOC) have promised to invest $44 billion - roughly amounting to a 50 percent stake - in Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemical Limited (RRPCL). However, the actual materialization of these deals needs to be assessed carefully before taking any decision. India should also pay attention to the Chinese dimension. The renewed U.S. sanctions would force Iran to drift sharply toward non-Western powers like Russia and more so toward China. Chinese officials often characterize the relationship with Iran as "20 centuries of cooperation" and Beijing has shown no intention to scale down those ties. Iran, owing to its geography, plays a crucial role in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China could leverage this as an opportunity to further consolidate its hold. There is a possibility of a petrol yuan emerging, with China using its renminbi in transaction with Iran, an important step toward the internationalization of the Chinese currency. China-Iran engagement will undermine the impact of U.S. sanctions and put Beijing on the higher ground vis-a-vis countries like India and the United States. Thus, India needs to carefully asses these situations while formulating its response. What Should India Do? India should strongly argue for waivers regarding oil trade (given Iran's importance to Indian energy security) and critical projects like Chabahar port. The absence of Iranian oil could shoot up prices in the oil market, subsequently raising India's import bill; with elections around the corner, a hike in oil prices could mean tough times for the Modi government. India can contemplate lowering tariffs for U.S. goods in exchange for a sanctions waiver. New Delhi also needs to strongly push for Chabahar and frame it in tandem with Trump's objectives in Afghanistan - the port would reduce Afghanistan's dependence on Pakistan and would allow India to engage more constructively in the region. India should negotiate with Iran for a rupee-rial system and efforts should be made to revive Irano-Hind, a jointly owned shipping company that was shut down in 2013. Further, India should coordinate with EU countries along with Russia and China to promote the Iran nuclear deal or any alternative arrangement, in case the United States remains firm on sanctions. India needs to do a holistic assessment of the situation and not tie itself to any particular country. What's next for Vietnam-Thailand security cooperation? Prashanth Parameswaran This week, Thailand's minister of public security paid a visit to Vietnam in yet another notable official exchange between the two Southeast Asian states. The interaction highlighted the ongoing activity on the defense side of the strategic partnership that both sides have forged over the years. As I have noted before in these pages, the defense realm has long factored into wider cooperation between Vietnam and Thailand, which, though characterized by animosity for much of the Cold War, has been warming somewhat in recent years, with ties officially elevated to the level of a strategic partnership back in 2013. The security aspect of ties has covered a range of areas, from addressing challenges such as transnational crimes and illegal fishing to stepping up visits, training, and channels of communication. One of the interactions both sides have been holding in recent years is the Vietnam-Thailand Joint Working Group (JWG) on politics and security. The JWG has provided an opportunity for both sides to discuss the full range of activities ongoing in that aspect of ties within the context of the wider strategic partnership, individual Thailand's minister of public security visited Vietnam, highlighting defense ties. Photo: Collected dialogues held between various ministries and institutions, channels of communication set up by agencies, and issues whether bilateral ones such as talks on mutual legal assistance or regional ones including the Mekong River and the South China Sea. The last iteration of the JWG, which was its ninth, was held in July last year. This week, Vietnam-Thailand defense ties were in the spotlight again with the visit of the secretary-general of Thailand's National Security Council, General Wanlop Rugsanaoh, to Vietnam. Wanlop, along with his delegation from a series of Thai ministries and sectors, was in Vietnam for a series of meetings as well as for the convening of the 10th iteration of the Vietnam-Thailand Joint Working Group on politics and security from August 5 to August 8. Vietnamese state media said that the discussions between Wanlop and his Vietnamese counterpart, Deputy Minister of Public Security Senior Lieutenant Bui Van Nam, touched on a range of political and security issues of importance to both sides - including nontraditional security challenges such as food security energy security, climate change, water security, and natural disasters - as well as wider regional and global issues such as the development of the ASEAN community and the threats from terrorism, racial and religious conflicts, and territorial and natural resource disputes, and the issues they posed for regime security. They also discussed the role of the JWG itself in furthering cooperation between the two sides and the Ministry of Public Security and the NSC, including specific ways to improve its effectiveness as a key mechanism within the bilateral relationship moving forward. Unsurprisingly, beyond that, few additional specifics were provided. But as visits and exchanges continue through the year and onto 2019 and 2020, when both countries will take turns to chair ASEAN, the security component of the Thailand-Vietnam relationship will continue to be an interesting area to watch. How might U.S.-China trade tensions impact the Indo-Pacific strategy? Photo: Shealah Craighead Japan to reevaluate their Indo-Pacific Strategy Mercy A. Kuo Proximity to the region's long-term geopolitical challenge, i.e. China's re-emergence as the largest power in the region, has compelled Japan to take the lead in articulating the necessity for an Indo-Pacific strategy. China's economic weight, assertive behavior, and hybrid tactics to achieve its national objectives such as eroding sovereignty claims through lawfare has compelled Japan to put forth foundational strategic frameworks such as the "Security Diamond" that has laid the foundation for today's Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the emerging Indo-Pacific strategy. The ensuing trade war between the U.S. and China has marshalled forces in each country. Beijing understands the trade war as a coordinated effort to stunt China's development and prevent China from "standing up" and achieving its China Dream, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people and nation. The Indo-Pacific strategy is understood as a Cold War 2.0 containment strategy to cement U.S. regional hegemony. This highly securitized view of the Indo-Pacific strategy will enhance China's commitment to resisting U.S. trade tactics through targeted tariffs hurting Trump supporters. China will also become less cooperative of signature Trump diplomacy such as denuclearization of North Korea. In contrast, in the U.S. the trade war has bipartisan support, with both Republicans and Democrats recognizing the necessity to recalibrate their economic relationship and push back against Chinese assertiveness in the region. The Indo-Pacific strategy provides a platform to link a new geographic geopolitical framework that works in tandem to achieve economic objectives including fair, free and reciprocal (FFR) trade and pushing back against geopolitical gains by China in the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. withdrawal from the TPP inculcated deep misgivings about the U.S.'s long-term commitment to the region. Tokyo turned disappointment into a leadership opportunity through the successful pursuit of the CPTPP, an open trade agreement that would eventually allow for the inclusion of the U.S. among others. The U.S.-Japan Alliance makes Tokyo Washington's closest partner in the region. Their longstanding comprehensive and strategic partnership thrusts Tokyo into the role of indispensable partner and communicator as to the importance of the CPTPP and U.S. involvement to achieve a workable Indo-Pacific strategy. China's bilateral relationships with India and Australia play a determining role as to how Japan enlists both states in implementing the Indo-Pacific strategy. India fears open support for the Indo-Pacific, in particular military commitments to an open and free, rules-based maritime region as it could result in an escalation in Sino-Indo geopolitical tension with China potentially complicating Inda-Pakistan relations, amongst others. Australia's economic relationship with China, in contrast, places it in a difficult position as there is a mismatch in its economic interests and security/political interests. Australia's prosperity is directly related to economic ties with China. Notwithstanding, there is deepening concern about Chinese political interference in Australia and China's rejection of cherished middle power international institutions and rules. Better than most, Tokyo has clarity about the disaccord between economic and security interests when advocating the Indo-Pacific strategy. In the case of India, Japan has focused on forging economic ties through ODA and FDI, the creation of a strategic partnership, and stressing ad-hoc, selective participation in the Indo-Pacific strategy and the Quad. This is purposeful; India has comparative advantages such as population, geographic location, and identity that allows India to be a norm-maker without eschewing is pacifist traditions. Taiwan is an active player in the Pacific, home to many of its remaining diplomatic allies. Photo: Presidential Office, Taiwan Taiwanese strategy to compete with China in the region Alexandre Dayant Concern about China's aid investments in the Pacific Islands region have reached a fever pitch in the last year, with the general public waking up to the reality of the Pacific as a contested geopolitical space. China's engagement, of course, has not happened overnight. There are even diaspora connections that date back generations. China began stepping up its engagement in 2006 when it held the first China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Forum, pledging increased funding to the eight countries with which it has diplomatic relations. The 2015 (updated in 2016) the Lowy Institute's Chinese Aid in the Pacific Map revealed the full scale of how far that funding has grown. While China has been making the headlines, today's release of the Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map reveals that China isn't the only nontraditional partner that has been busy in the region. Taiwan has been eagerly shoring up its relationships as well. The Pacific Aid Map is an interactive tool that has been developed by the Lowy Institute over the past 18 months to enhance aid effectiveness in the Pacific by improving coordination, alignment, and accountability of foreign aid through enhanced transparency of aid flows. The Pacific Aid Map has collected data on close to 13,000 projects in 14 countries from 62 (traditional and nontraditional) donors from 2011 onwards. This raw data has been made freely available on an interactive multifaceted platform, allowing users to investigate the data in a variety of ways. The Pacific Aid Map reveals, for the first time, the scope of Taiwan's engagement in the Pacific Islands region. The Pacific Islands is an important region for Taiwan. After Burkina Faso, the Dominican Republic, Panama, São Tomé and Príncipe, all cut ties with Taipei in the last two years, a full third of nations maintaining diplomatic relations with Taiwan are now in the Pacific Islands. These nations - Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu - have a combined population of just over 800,000, three quarters of which are based in the Solomon Islands. Given this concentration of support in the Pacific Taiwan has been on the charm offensive with these countries, with President Tsai Ing-wen recently touring the region. These countries also receive significant financial support from Taiwan. The Pacific Aid Map has collected data, through a combination of budget materials, government announcements, and social media sources, on Taiwan's aid to the Pacific. For the period of 2011-2016 our data shows that Taiwan has given more than $190 million to its supporters in the Pacific. This likely undersells the amount Taiwan has given to the region - budget documents from both Palau and Tuvalu are quite opaque on the subject, as is the Taiwan government.
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