2018 Fall Kansas Child

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Continued from page 4 Throughout the report, pertinent facts become clear, and many important conclusions can be drawn. At the highest level, one key takeaway is that the Kansas population is growing slower than the United States as a whole. In order to ensure a prosperous future, a state must continue to grow its population and advance its communities. In the absence of massive overall population growth, it becomes even more vital that we as Kansans focus on key demographic shifts, especially those highlighted in this report. By analyzing the numbers presented regarding population and demographics in the coming decades, we are able to draw three over-arching conclusions: Kansas is becoming increasingly diverse, concentrating in urban areas, and is aging. Growing Diversity For years, Kansas communities of all sizes were predominately non-Hispanic White. That reality is quickly changing. Non-Hispanic Whites made up more than 84 percent of the Kansas population in 2000, but 16 years later, represented only 77.5 percent. Between 1960 and 2016, Kansas grew at a lower rate than the national average. It is revealing that even this small growth was completely due to minority populations. For the purposes of the report, minority populations were defined as “any racial or ethnic group other than non-Hispanic White.” All 105 Kansas counties saw an increase in minority populations during this time period. Projections indicate this trend will continue, with the Kansas Hispanic population expected to quadruple, increasing nearly 287 percent by the year 2066. In contrast, the non-Hispanic White population is projected to decrease by approximately 21 percent by 2066. This population group already declined by 0.3 percent from 2000 to 2016. Current growth patterns indicate this population will continue to decline while minority populations substantially increase. In addition to the anticipated growth of the Hispanic population in the coming decades, other minorities are also expected to see large increases: Black population by more than 41% Other/Multiple Races by 138%. These population increases among minorities are predicted to lead to a major “event” within the next 50 years: Between 2061 and 2066, researchers foretell Kansas will become a majority people of color state. Any time a shift this dramatic is predicted, the obvious question becomes, “Is this good or bad for our state?” At the Kansas Health Foundation, we believe that “change,” in and of itself, is neither good or bad. Change is simply change, and with changes, it’s important to look at the opportunities and the potential challenges. These changes bring great advantages, like a stable, growing population base; a steady workforce needed for jobs; an opportunity to keep unemployment levels from going lower, which helps recruit new industries; and more vibrancy to cultural life in Kansas. But, challenges also come with growing diversity. When looking at state health data based on race, income and education, we see that minority populations tend to experience higher rates of tobacco use, obesity and diabetes. They are also more likely to have lower incomes, be uninsured and have lower levels of educational attainment. It will be important for community and state policymakers to plan for and carefully consider how to mitigate these challenges and especially to ensure educational systems remain strong. Education will become even more important for the future of By 2066 the non-Hispanic White population is projected to decrease by 21 percent. Minorities are expected to see large increases: Black population by more than 41%, Other/Multiple Races by 138%. our state due to the connection between education, better jobs, higher income, greater access to care, healthier behaviors and ultimately better health outcomes for all Kansans. With this knowledge of a shifting demographic landscape, Kansas will have the opportunity during the next 50 years to build on its pioneering past and solidify itself as a diverse and progressive force. Rural Flight Another aspect the report touches on is a population shift away from rural areas to more urban parts of the state. Taking another step back in time, the Kansas population between 1960 and 2016 increased by 33.4 percent, but the U.S. population increased by more than 80 percent. During these years, population growth has not occurred uniformly in all geographic regions of the state. Most growth occurred in highly populated areas or around livestock centers in Southwest Kansas. While urban counties increased in population during these 56 years (nearly 81 percent in urban and more than 24 percent in semi-urban), rural and frontier counties saw significant decreases in population (more than 22 percent and approximately 41 percent, respectively). From 2000 to 2016, 82 of the 105 Kansas counties experienced population loss, but the state as a whole saw a growth of more than 8 percent. Between now and 2066, rural counties are projected to see 6 Kansas Child A Publication of Child Care Aware ® of Kansas
a continual decrease in population of nearly 20 percent in the western areas of the state, and approximately 32 percent in the east. The report suggests more people will continue to make metropolitan areas their home by 2066. The overall state population is predicted to increase by 25 percent during this time period, and growth will concentrate in urban areas of the state. For instance, Topeka is projected to grow by more than 7 percent, Lawrence by nearly 126 percent, the Kansas City area by 44.5 With this trend continuing, an interesting milestone will be reached in the coming years: By 2034, the number of older residents will exceed those under age 18 for the first time in our state’s history. While the overall state population is expected to grow by 25 percent between now and 2066, the projected growth rate among people 65 and older will be nearly 70 percent. When thinking about this imbalance between the older and younger populations, we have to think about how this shift will Topeka is projected to grow by more than 7 percent, Lawrence by nearly 126 percent, the Kansas City area by 44.5 percent and Wichita by more than 28 percent By 2034, the number of older residents will exceed those under age 18 for the first time in our state’s history. The projected growth rate among people 65 and older will be nearly 70 percent. percent and Wichita by more than 28 percent. These trends and projections could greatly impact public health, and pose problems for governments, education systems and human service organizations. Urban areas will need to make difficult decisions and important investments to ensure their communities are capable of adding large increases in population while maintaining critical aspects of quality of life. Governments in rural areas will likely face mounting pressure on local budgets to fund infrastructure and essential programs with fewer residents to foot the bill. Rural areas will also have to make difficult decisions. Instead of large investments like the urban areas, rural decisions may focus instead on finding ways simply to provide essential services. It’s safe to say both urban and rural areas of the state must be prepared for changes in the coming decades. An Aging Population It’s probably not surprising that while rising diversity and urbanization are occurring, our population is also getting older. What might not be as well known is that it’s happening at a much faster rate than the rest of the nation. This trend is expected to increase each year as Baby Boomers reach retirement age. In 2000, Kansans were a median age of 35.2, but in 16 years this number has increased to 36.5. The number of Kansans age 65 and older is also increasing. In 2016, 15 percent of the population fell in this age bracket, which was up from 13.3 percent just 16 years earlier. affect our state’s economy — if we’ll have enough workers to support our growing elderly population and how to best prepare our health care systems, which will likely become more stressed with additional chronic illness. Generations of Kansans have used their ingenuity and wisdom to set our state on the course to prosperity. As these generations age, we must make sure we return the favor by providing them with the necessary services in their golden years. What now? We know change will occur no matter what. We can look at the opportunities to plan for the best health of our residents and for the betterment of our communities. With this report, we now have hard numbers and solid facts rather than merely conjecture and hypotheses. We have the privilege to create a better path for the health of our people, and for stronger, more vibrant, communities. But we can’t do it alone. It’s going to take all of us – with different ideas, talents and working in ways that are much different than we have before. State and local leaders must engage with communities to learn how to address these trends, and what it’ll mean for their unique makeup. Can you, and your organization, commit to a future that is inclusive and builds on the strengths of our people? We hope you can, and that you’ll join us in doing so. Visit kansashealth.org to learn more about the Kansas Health Foundation. n www.ks.childcareaware.org Kansas Child 7
Page 1 and 2: A publication of Child Care Aware
Page 3 and 4: IN THIS ISSUE p. 4 Change: Kansas H
Page 5: The Kansas Hispanic population is e
Page 9 and 10: An Essential Life Skill for Transit
Page 11 and 12: Policy Environment Health care poli
Page 13 and 14: BETTY JOHNSON Betty Johnson & Assoc
Page 15 and 16: Allen County, Kansas: 2017 Robert W
Page 17 and 18: NEW Child Care Workforce Report Whi
Page 19 and 20: Continued from page 11 in place, re
Page 21 and 22: Child Care as a Utility HEIDI HOLID
Page 23 and 24: Earn a teaching license Change your

2018 Fall Kansas Child

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