Glacier Quarterly 4 - 2018
In this issue of the Glacier Quarterly, former Editor at Large at Tiso Blackstar Group, Peter Bruce writes that ‘hope and revival are in sight.’ Strategist Clem Sunter echoes this by stating that we are seeing attempts to turn our situation around. In his latest ‘flags and scenarios’ article, he gives a 60% probability of SA achieving the ‘Premier League’ – the best of this three scenarios.
In this issue of the Glacier Quarterly, former Editor at Large at Tiso Blackstar Group, Peter Bruce writes that ‘hope and revival are in sight.’ Strategist Clem Sunter echoes this by stating that we are seeing attempts to turn our situation around. In his latest ‘flags and scenarios’ article, he gives a 60% probability of SA achieving the ‘Premier League’ – the best of this three scenarios.
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It’s doom and gloom in South<br />
Africa at the moment amid political<br />
uncertainty and an economy in<br />
recession. But hope and revival are<br />
in sight, writes Peter Bruce, former<br />
Editor at Large at Tiso Blackstar<br />
Group.<br />
There’s no getting away from the<br />
fact that South Africa is in trouble.<br />
Or, if not actually in trouble then<br />
extremely close to it. Our politics<br />
are nerve-wracking and our<br />
economy seldom makes for a good<br />
headline. That we’re in recession is<br />
almost incidental.<br />
The political stage is being set for<br />
a general election around April<br />
next year. Some people still say<br />
President Cyril Ramaphosa should<br />
call one now and catch his internal<br />
ANC critics off guard. But there<br />
are two problems with that: The<br />
party doesn’t yet have the money<br />
to run a campaign and the<br />
Independent Electoral Commission<br />
(IEC) still has work to do on the<br />
voters roll.<br />
An early poll commissioned by the<br />
South African Institute of Race<br />
Relations has the ANC winning<br />
52% of the vote, the Democratic<br />
Alliance (DA) 24% and the Economic<br />
Freedom Fighters (EFF) 13%.<br />
That poll may be misleading, though,<br />
because it assumes an 83% voter<br />
turnout, which is unnaturally high.<br />
Dawie Scholtz, who analyses voting<br />
patterns and is generally reliable,<br />
says this more likely than not<br />
understates support for the ANC<br />
and overstates that for the EFF. So,<br />
for now, and before any<br />
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