E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic Indicators

mayday
2019
EUpDates
January 2019
A Monthlly Statiistiicall Bulllletiin
Surge Research Support
www.ecofin-surge.co.in

A Quick Review of the Economy
GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH looks poised to face a synchronised slowdown in the year 2019 led by
deceleration in the US and further softening in China. After a brief spurt in 2017 and 2018, growth in the G7
economies is trending lower, and emerging markets are unlikely to come to the rescue. THE US has seen
growth decelerate from the heady days of early 2018. It hit 4.2% in the second quarter and 3.5% in the
third. But the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcast” expects 3% growth for the fourth quarter, a slowing
brought on by uncertainty around trade policy and, soon, dwindling fiscal stimulus. The slowdown is likely
to be delayed in the US economy because of fiscal stimulus; however, higher tariffs, financial volatility, and
the government shutdown will hurt growth. The Fed delivered on the expected rate hike but the tone of the
statement wasn’t as dovish as the market had hoped for. The Fed signalled some further gradual increases
in the Fed Funds rate and reiterated that the rundown of the Fed’s balance sheet was on auto-pilot. The
Fed still sees the US economy activity as rising at a strong rate, while acknowledging the implications of
global economic and financial developments. The EURO AREA economy is on a weak footing as it faces
perilous uncertainties in 2019, from home-grown political difficulties to global stock-market turmoil and
trade wars. Several major European economies, including the UK, have struggled with faltering levels of car
production in recent months as factories adjust to handling new vehicle emissions tests introduced earlier
in the year. Industrial output in the euro area last November fell the most in almost three years, raising
questions over the economy's ability to regain momentum after a broad-based slowdown. Germany,
Europe’s largest economyis facing risks of a recession brewing. Germany’s key industrial sector is going to
be a drag on the nation’s overall economy for the fourth quarter. Industrial production in November
declined 4.7% yoy and marked the third consecutive month of declines. Economic actvitivity in the UK
stalled towards the end of 2018, with concerns over the UK’s departure from the EU resulting in companies
and consumers putting spending decisions on hold. Manufacturing output, which accounts for about a 10th
of the economy, declined for the fifth consecutive month in November – a first since the 2008 financial
crisis. In JAPAN real GDP declined at a 2.5% annual rate in the third quarter. Available data suggest real
GDP recovered in the fourth quarter, thanks largely to a rebound in domestic demand. However, net
exports were likely a drag on fourth-quarter growth as imports increased more rapidly than exports.
CHINA’s huge economy, a major driver of global growth, is cooling just when the world needs its spark.
Exports, industrial production, and retail sales have decelerated, as has factory price inflation. Chinese
exports were down 4.4% in December – the largest fall since 2016 – on the back of faltering demand in
most of its key markets. Imports fell 7.6% to reflect waning domestic demand. The People’s Bank of China
has been quietly guiding interbank borrowing costs down without actually cutting official interest rates,
and the fiscal authorities have pressed on with tax cuts and expedited government bond sales, among other
policies. So far, the government and central bank have tried to stimulate the economy without resorting to
a massive credit flood and infrastructure binge like in 2009.
Crude oil and gasoline had the biggest declines of all commodities last year, according to a new study by the
Energy Information Administration (EIA). After increasing 25% from January through the beginning of
October in 2018, the spot energy index in the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) ended the year
21% lower than at the beginning of the year. Increases in crude oil production in the United States, Russia,
and Saudi Arabia, rising inventories, concerns about slowing global economic growth and its impact on oil
demand all contributed to recent declines in crude oil prices.
After almost a decade of low interest rates, the total value of global debt, both public and private, has risen
by 60% to hit a record high of $182 trillion, so if central banks raise borrowing costs that would create
difficulties for businesses and governments. Major stock markets across the world suffered their worst
calendar year since the financial crisis in 2018, leaving many global investors fearful of further declines
over the coming months. Simmering trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, growing
concerns over rising interest rates and persistent geopolitical issues — such as Brexit — battered financial
markets in the year. A gauge of global equity price movements, the MSCI All Country World equity index fell
a sharp 7.2% in the month reaching a High of 498.93 and a Low of 435.36 in December.
INDIA’S INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION grew at an 11 month high of 8.1% in October as against 4.5% in September,
aided by a favourable base effect and robust output in all key sectors—manufacturing, electricity and mining,
coupled with higher offtake of capital as well as consumer durable goods. During the April-October period,
industrial output grew 5.6% as compared to 2.5% in the same period of the previous fiscal. Manufacturing sector,
which constitutes 77.63% of the index, recorded 7.9% growth in October as against 2% year ago, with 21 out of
23 industry groups recording positive growth. Mining sector posted 7% growth during the month as against a
contraction of 0.2% in October 2017. The power sector output also grew by 10.8% in the month compared to
3.2%. The capital goods sector saw a 16.8% output growth in the month, up from 3.5% a year ago. Consumer
durables expanded at 17.6% as compared to a contraction of 9% a year earlier.
Core sector growth slowed to a 16-month low of 3.5% in November, weighed down by cement, electricity and coal
production. Coal output growth dipped sharply to 3.7% in November from 11.3% in October, despite a favourable
base effect. Electricity generation rose 5.4% compared with 10.9% in October. Cement production grew 8.8%
from 18.4% a month ago.
E-UpDates January 2019
2
Surge Research Support

India's MERCHANDISE EXPORTS growth slumped to 0.8% in November from 17.86% in October, as a double-digit
contraction in exports of gems and jewellery and engineering goods in November weighed upon the performance of non-oil
exports. Exports declined for engineering goods by 16.4% to US$5.93 billion, gems & jewellery 16.9% to US$2.80 billion,
meat, dairy & poultry products 31.3% to US$0.36 billion, rice 23.1% to US$0.42 billion, marine products 15.1% to US$0.64
billion and cotton yarn/fabrics/made-ups, handloom products 5.3% to US$0.83 billion in November. Exports also declined
for fruits & vegetables by 24.9%, leather & leather products 5.2%, and man-made yarn/fabrics/made-ups etc 2.9%.
Petroleum products recorded an increase in exports by 42.7% to US$5.14 billion, followed by electronic goods 37.1% to
US$0.79 billion, organic & inorganic chemicals 12.3% to US$1.87 billion, RMG of all textiles 9.0% to US$1.13 billion and drugs
& pharmaceuticals 3.2% to US$1.48 billion. MERCHANDISE IMPORTS moved up 4.3% to US$43.17 billion, as oil imports
galloped 41.3% to US$13.49 billion, while the non-oil imports declined 6.8% to US$29.68 billion. The price of India's basket
of crude oil increased 6.7% yoy to US$65.40 per barrel. Among the non-oil imports, the major contributors to the overall rise
in imports were coal, coke & briquettes rising 12.5% to US$2.25 billion, iron & steel 17.6% to US$1.48 billion, fertilizers,
crude & manufactured 46.6% to US$0.68 billion, project goods 197.8% to US$0.33 billion, electrical & non-electrical
machinery 7.7% to US$2.91 billion and organic & inorganic chemicals 10.8% to US$2.00 billion. The TRADE DEFICIT
increased 10.4% to US$16.67 billion in November 2018 from US$13.83 billion in November 2017. India's merchandise
exports increased 11.1% to US$217.52 billion, while merchandise imports moved up 15.5% to US$345.64 billion in April-
November 2018. An increase in imports was driven by a 48.0% jump in oil imports to US$97.43 billion. India's merchandise
trade deficit increased to US$128.13 billion in April-November 2018 from US$102.05 billion in April-November 2017.
WPI ANNUAL INFLATION Softened to 4.64% in November compared with a 5.28% rise in October, due to lower food and
vegetables prices. Prices of primary articles — including food articles — which account for more than a fifth of the entire
wholesale price index, rose 0.88% in the month under review, as against 1.79% in October. Potatoes continued to remain
expensive, with their prices rising 86.45% in November, as against 93.65% in October. Prices of fuel and power, which
together have a weightage of 13.15% on the WPI, grew at 16.28% in November, as against a rise of 18.44% in October. Prices
of manufactured products, which account for close to two-thirds of the index, rose 4.21%, compared to 4.49% in October.
Core WPI inflation fell to 4.8% from 5.1% in the previous month.
CPI based RETAIL INFLATION fell to a 17-month low of 2.33% in November against 3.38% in October as food prices declined
at a faster pace of 2.61% in November, compared to 0.86% in October. The rate of disinflation increased for vegetables and
sugar to 15.59% and 9.02% in November against 8.06% and 7.64% in the previous month. Falling international crude prices
had its impact on the inflation rate. The rate of price rise in fuels fell to 7.39% from 8.55%. Inflation rate in house rent also
declined to 5.99% from 6.06%.
India’s FISCAL DEFICIT or gap between government expenditure and revenue stood at Rs 7.17 trillion ($101.93 billion) by
the end of November amounting to 114.8% of the budgeted target for the current fiscal year. Net tax receipts in the first eight
months of the fiscal year were Rs 7.32 trillion, with Revenue receipts at Rs 8.7 trillion by end of November a little over half of
the BE for the financial year. Revenue expenditure climbed to Rs 14.21 trillion or over two-thirds of the BE. Significant rise
was recorded in subsidies given for petroleum products and urea, reaching 93% and 74% respectively of their BE. Total
liabilities of the government has increased 49% to Rs 82 trillion in the last four-and-half years, as per the 8th Edition of the
Status Paper on Government Debt, propelled by 51.7% growth in public debt from Rs 48 trillion to Rs 73 trillion. However,
the overall liabilities of the Central government are on a medium-term declining trajectory and government's debt portfolio is
characterised by prudent risk profile, the paper, covering details of fiscal deficit financing operations of the government
noted.
In early December, in the Fifth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement for 2018-19, the RBI decided to keep the policy repo rate
under the LAF at 6.5%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands at 6.25%, and the marginal standing facility
(MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6. 75%.Overnight weighted average daily CMRs remained close to the upper bound of the
policy rate corridor through most of December, rising above the policy repo rate and falling below the lower bound on
occasions as RBI injected liquidity into the system. The CBLO rate moved more or less in tandem with the CMR. The MIBOR
was much higher than the policy rate in sync with a higher LIBOR through the month. Yields of government securities
continued to soften in December, over the previous month, in line with global trends and expectations of a policy hold by RBI.
Constant maturity yields (CMYs) softened across the maturity spectrum by 18 to 35 bps. The average 3- and 6-month yields
softened by 18 bps, while the 1-year yield fell by 27bps; 2- -7-year CMYs fell by about 20 to 30 bps. The 10-year CMY
softened 20 bps after dropping a sharp 50 bps in November. Longer term yields too, fell by nearly 35 bps over the previous
month. With longer term yields falling sharper than short term ones the yield curve has flattened considerably.
The Indian EQUITY MARKET emerged as one of the best-performing equity markets in 2018, with a negative dollar return of
near 6% in a year when stock markets across the globe were spooked by trade tensions and subdued earnings recovery, with
the MSCI Emerging Market index declining 17%. The Nifty 50 index and BSE Sensex gained 3.2% and 5.9%, respectively.
India has become the seventh largest market by size, with a market capitalisation of $2.08 trillion. Its stock market has
overtaken that of Germany, Europe’s largest economy, for the first time in seven years, according to Bloomberg. The US
dominates the global ranking, with $27 trillion mcap, followed by China, Japan, Hong Kong, UK, France and India. However,
the Indian market shed a whopping Rs 7.2 trillion in value-terms (market-cap) during 2018, indicating that outperformance
was mainly led by select large-caps. There was a massive erosion of value among mid-cap and small-cap stocks. The Nifty
Mid-cap and Small-cap indices plunge over 16% and 30%, respectively. The Sensex reached a High of 36,554.99 and a Low of
34,426.29 in December and closed the month at 36,068.33, down from 36,194.30 in the previous month. The Nifty reached a
High of 10985.15 and a Low of 10,333.85 in December and closed the month at 10,862.55, down from 10,876.75 in the
previous month.
DIIs continued to remain the backbone of Indian equities that infused over Rs 1.1 trillion in 2018 almost the same level as Rs
1.17 trillion in 2017. FPIs were net sellers to a tune of $4.5 billion (Rs. 33013 crore) in the equity market and $7 billion (Rs.
47796 crore) in the debt market in 2018. MFs invested a net of Rs. 2918.97 crore in the equity market almost half of their
investment in the previous month. MFs’ net investment in the debt market rose from the previous month to Rs. 65235 crore.
In December, FPIs pumped Rs. 3143.2 crore ($453) in equity and Rs. 4748.6 ($772) in debt into the Indian capital markets.
The equity market is expected to remain volatile ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019 and will further be
influenced by the interest rate policy of the Fed and the RBI, direction of oil prices, as also further developments in the
E-UpDates January 2019 context of the US-China tariff war, and development 3of Brexit.
Surge Research Support

Table of Contents
Contents
1. Key Rates to Remember
2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators
3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators
4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators
5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates
6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates
7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets
8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows
9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets
10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators
11. Global Economy — Stock Indices
12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices
Special Feature— Highlights of Recent RBI
Reports
Page
………… 5
………… 6
………… 8
………… 9
………… 11
………… 13
………… 16
………… 19
………… 22
………… 24
………… 25
………… 26
………… 27
www.ecofin-surge.co.in
E-UpDates January 2019
4
Surge Research Support

GDP
IIP
2018-19* 7.4% Oct-18 8.1%
2017-18* 5.8% Oct-17 1.8%
*H1 (at 2011-12 prices).
QE; Base : 2011-12=100.
As on 31-Dec-18 30-Dec-17 As of week ended 28-Dec-18 29-Dec-17
Repo rate 6.50% 6.00% SLR 19.50% 19.50%
Reverse repo rate 6.25% 5.75% TermDeposit>1Yr 6.25-7.50% 6.00-6.75%
MSF rate 6.75% 6.25% Base rate 8.95-9.45% 8.85-9.45%
CMR 5.00-6.85% 5.00-6.25% 10-YrGSecYld 7.41% 7.49%
Inflation CPI-C* CFPI-C* WPI** WPI-Food**
Nov-18 2.33% -2.61% 4.64% -1.96%
Nov-17 4.88% 4.35% 4.02% 4.10%
*Base: 2012=100; **Base: 2011-12=100
Oil Price (Average)
US$/INR Rate
Dec-18 53.96 31-Dec-18 69.79
Dec-17 61.19 29-Dec-17 63.92
US$ per barrel
RBI Reference rate
Nikkei India PMI December
BSE-CMIE
Consumer
Rural Urban All India
Sentiment Index*
Manufacturing PMI 53.2 31-Dec-18 105.46 94.85 101.23
Services BAI 53.2 31-Dec-17 100.18 89.70 96.13
*Monthly Average
For more click:
http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/index.html
For explanations click:
http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.html
E-UpDates January 2019
5
Surge Research Support

GDP Growth Rates
(at 2011-12 prices for IIP & WPI)
Growth Indicators
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
2018-19 8.2 7.1
2017-18 5.6 6.3 7.0 7.7 6.7 (PE)
GDP [at Constant(2011-12) prices]
(using the new series of IIP and WPI with base
2011-12 released on 12th May, 2017.)
2018-19
(Q2)
Rs.Crore
YoY Growth
(Share in
GDP) (%)
2018-19
(Q1)
Rs. Crore
YoY Growth
(Share in
GDP) (%)
GVA at Basic Price by Economic
Activity
1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 3,46,102 3.8 4,19,747 5.3
2 Mining & quarrying 74,841 -2.4 1,00,954 0.1
3 Manufacturing 5,84,164 7.4 5,69,094 13.5
4 Electricity, gas, water supply &
72,858 9.2 71,383 7.3
other utlility services
5 Construction 2,37,836 7.8 2,49,103 8.7
6 Trade, hotels, transport,
5,81,418 6.8 5,98,724 6.7
communication and services related
to broadcasting
7 Financial, real estate & professional
8,20,009 6.3 7,61,405 6.5
services
8 Public administration, defence and
4,22,770 10.9 3,92,211 9.9
Other Services
9 GVA at basic prices (1 to 8) 31,39,997 6.9 31,62,622 8.0
Estimates of Final Expenditures
on GDP
10 Private final consumption 18,51,644 (54.5) 18,52,663 (54.9)
11 Government final consumption 4,21,664 (12.4) 3,97,215 (11.8)
12 Gross fixed capital formation
10,98,675 (32.3) 10,65,217 (31.6)
(GFCF)
13 Changes in stocks (CIS) 24,580 (0.7) 23,718 (0.7)
14 Valuables 74,677 (2.2) 75,650 (2.2)
15 Exports 7,41,318 (21.8) 7,20,410 (21.4)
16 Less (-) Imports 9,03,814 (26.6) 8,34,103 (24.7)
17 Discrepancies (GDP less 10 to 16) 88,875 (2.6) 73,213 (2.2)
18 GDP (10 to 17) 33,97,620 7.1 (100.0) 33,73,983 8.2 (100.0)
E-UpDates January 2019
6
Surge Research Support

GDP [at Constant(2011-12) prices] 2017-18 Rs.Crore YoY Growth 2016-17 Rs.Crore YoY Growth
using the new series of IIP and WPI with base (PE)
(%)
(%)
2011-12 released on 12th May, 2017.
1
GVA at basic prices 119,76,155 6.5 112,47,629 7.1
2 Net Taxes 10,34,688 9.1 9,48,376 7.4
3
GDP (1+2) 130,10,843 6.7 121,96,006 7.1
4 Net Domestic Product (GDP less
Consumption of Fixed Capital)
115,52,178 6.7 108,26,074 7.0
5 Net factor income from abroad -1,46,616 -1,44,481
6 Gross National Income (4+6) 128,64,227 6.7 120,51,525 7.1
7 Net National Income (GNI less
114,05,563 6.8 106,81,594 7.0
Consumption of Fixed Capital)
8 Population (in million) 1,283 1.3 1,299 1.2
9 Per capita GDP (Rs.) 98,867 5.3 93,888 5.8
10 Per capita GNI (Rs.) 97,752 5.4 92,775 5.8
11 Per capita NNI (Rs.) 86,668 5.4 82,229 5.7
12 Per capita PFCE (Rs.) 55,160 5.2 52,443 5.9
AE: Advance Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates; RE: Revised Estimates.
Index of Industrial Production Jul-18 Oct-17 Oct-18
FY2018-19* FY2017-18*
Index 2011-12 =100
Change (YoY, %)
General Index 125.7 122.5 132.4 8.1 5.6 2.5
1. Mining 95.5 100.8 107.9 7.0 3.8 3.3
2. Manufacturing 127.6 123.7 133.5 7.9 5.6 2.1
3. Electricity 162.0 149.8 166.0 10.8 6.8 5.3
1. Capital goods 98.7 97.6 114.0 16.8 8.7 0.7
2. Primary goods 123.6 122.1 129.4 6.0 5.1 3.5
3. Infrastructure/ Construction goods 136.1 132.0 143.5 8.7 8.7 2.6
4. Consumer durables 133.5 119.0 139.9 17.6 9.4 -2.2
Final indices for July 2018; *April–October.
180
170
160
150
IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2011-12=100)
Mining & Quarrying
(14.373)
Manufacturing (77.633)
Electricity (7.994)
140
130
120
110
100
90
104.9
126.5
149.2
125.2
127.8
121.8
106.0
131.9
123.3
100.7
129.2
162.3
124.2
2017-18 2018-19
107.4
139.2
133.8
General Index (100.0)
Primary goods (34.048)
Capital goods (8.223)
Infrastructure goods
(12.338)
Consumer durables
(12.893)
E-UpDates January 2019
7
Surge Research Support

Wholesale Price Index
(Base: 2011-12=100)
(Annual Inflation %)
All
Commodities
100.00%
Primary Articles
22.62%
Price Indicators
Food Articles
15.26%
Non-food
Articles
4.12%
Fuel&Power
13.15%
Manufactured
Products
64.23%
September-2018 120.8 (5.13) 135.4 (2.88) 144.5 (-0.21) 124.8 (4.01) 107.2 (14.27) 118.5 (4.05)
October-2018 122 (5.28) 137.2 (1.76) 145.9 (-1.51) 123.4 (3.97) 111.3 (15.57) 118.9 (4.29)
November-2018 121.8 (4.64) 137.2 (0.87) 146.1 (-3.42) 124.6 (6.02) 110 (14.0) 118.8 (4.04)
Build up of inflation in the financial year so far is 4.73% compared to a build up of 2.83% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Consumer Price Index
(Inflation %)
All India
General Index
(All Groups
combined)
Base 2010=100
Rural Areas (All
Groups) Base
2010=100
Urban Areas
(All Groups)
Base 2010=100
Industrial
Workers Base
2001=100
Rural
Labourers
Base 1986-
87=100
Agricultural
Labourers
Base 1986-
87=100
September-2018 140.3 (3.77(F) 142.1 (3.34) (F) 138.1 (4.31) (F) 301(5.61) 917 (2.0) 910 (1.90)
October-2018 140.7 (3.38) (F) 142.2 (2.82) (P) 138.9 (4.04)) (P) 302 (5.23) 920 (1.43) 913 (1.33)
November-2018 140.8 (2.33) (P) 142.4 (1.71) (P) 139.0 (3.12) (P) 302 (4.86) 921 (1.21) 914 (0.99)
126.0
124.0
122.0
120.0
118.0
116.0
114.0
112.0
110.0
108.0
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
WPI (Base 2011-12=100)
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
116.8
117.9
119.2
119.7
120.1
120.8
122
121.8
113.2
112.8
112.7
113.9
114.8
114.3
115.5
116.3
115.7
115.8
115.8
116.0
109.0
110.4
111.7
111.8
111.2
111.4
111.5
111.9
111.7
112.6
113.0
113.4
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
CPI Inflation –November 2018 Rural Urban Combined
Cereals & Pdcts. 0.59 2.83 1.25
Pulses & Pdcts. -10.82 -5.65 -9.22
Oils etc 1.07 2.52 1.59
Meat & Fish 6.11 2.96 4.99
Milk & Pdcts. 0.35 1.51 0.78
Vegetables -12.20 -21.60 -15.59
Food & Beverages -1.62 -1.70 -1.69
Fuel & Light 6.66 8.75 7.39
Clothing etc 2.44 5.24 3.53
E-UpDates January 2019
8
Surge Research Support

Banking Indicators
COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs. crore)
March 31, 2018 November 2018 December 2018
Reserve Money : 24,18,780 25,56,780 25,70,760
% change during the month 2.52 0.55
% change since March 31 5.71 6.28
(A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3)
1 Currency in circulation 18,29,350 19,95,810 20,28,720
% change during the month 1.76 1.65
% change since March 31 9.10 10.90
2 Banker's deposits with RBI 5,65,530 5,35,320 5,16,250
% change during the month 5.37 (3.56)
% change since March 31 (5.34) (8.71)
3 "Other" deposits with RBI 23,910 25,660 25,790
% change during the month 4.39 0.51
% change since March 31 7.32 7.86
(B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8)
4 Net RBI credit to Government 4,75,960 7,85,770 8,77,730
% change during the month 20.69 11.70
% change since March 31 65.09 84.41
5 RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector 63,370 47,950 (25,070)
% change during the month (49.57) (152.28)
% change since March 31 (24.33) (139.56)
5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD) 49,350 38,970 (32,880)
% change during the month (54.61) (184.37)
% change since March 31 (21.03) (166.63)
5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector 14,020 8,980 7,810
% change during the month (2.71) (13.03)
% change since March 31 (35.95) (44.29)
6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 27,60,780 27,38,650 27,63,810
% change during the month (4.62) 0.92
% change since March 31 (0.80) 0.11
7 Govt's Currency Liabilities to the Public 25,650 25,700 25,700
% change during the month - -
% change since March 31 0.19 0.19
8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI 9,06,990 10,41,270 10,71,420
% change during the month (9.40) 2.90
% change since March 31 14.81 18.13
Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers.
E-UpDates January 2019
9
Surge Research Support

COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF MONEY STOCK (M 3 ) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs. crores)
March 31, 2018 November 2018# December 2018
M3 140,11,410 145,18,790 147,72,630
% change during the month 0.64 1.75
% change since March 31 3.62 5.43
(A) Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4)
1 Currency with the public 17,59,300 19,24,440 19,52,710
% change during the month 2.63 1.47
% change since March 31 9.39 10.99
2 Demand deposits with banks 14,92,180 13,38,420 13,46,910
% change during the month (0.88) 0.63
% change since March 31 (10.30) (9.74)
3 Time deposits with banks 107,36,020 112,30,160 114,47,230
% change during the month 0.48 1.93
% change since March 31 4.60 6.62
4 Other deposits with RBI 23,910 25,760 25,790
% change during the month 4.80 0.12
% change since March 31 7.74 7.86
(B) Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9)
5 Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii) 40,14,730 43,44,590 44,66,830
% change during the month 1.20 2.81
% change since March 31 8.22 11.26
i RBI's credit 4,75,960 7,12,720 8,77,730
% change during the month 9.47 23.15
% change since March 31 49.74 84.41
ii Other banks' credit 35,38,760 36,31,870 35,89,100
% change during the month (0.28) (1.18)
% change since March 31 2.63 1.42
6 Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii) 92,38,900 97,23,950 99,34,570
% change during the month 1.04 2.17
% change since March 31 5.25 7.53
i RBI's credit 14,030 9,320 7,810
% change during the month 0.98 (16.20)
% change since March 31 (33.57) (44.33)
ii Other banks' credit 92,24,880 97,14,630 99,26,760
% change during the month 1.04 2.18
% change since March 31 5.31 7.61
7 Net foreign exchange assets of the banking sector 28,94,620 29,21,220 28,96,000
% change during the month (2.46) (0.86)
% change since March 31 0.92 0.05
8 Government's currency liabilities to the public 25,650 25,700 25,700
% change during the month - 0.0
% change since March 31 0.19 0.2
9 NNML of the banking sector (i+ii) 21,62,490 24,96,670 25,50,480
% change during the month (0.57) 2.16
% change since March 31 15.45 17.94
i RBI's NNML 9,06,990 10,89,970 10,71,420
% change during the month (5.16) (1.70)
% change since March 31 20.17 18.13
ii Other bank's NNML(Residual) 12,55,500 14,06,700 14,79,060
% change during the month 3.31 5.14
% change since March 31 12.04 17.81
E-UpDates
Note:
January
Figures
2019
in parentheses denote negative numbers. #: data 10 as of November 23, 2018.
Surge Research Support

Exchange Rates
Movement of the Rupee (INR) (Average of Buying & Selling Rates)
Dollar
Euro
Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
3-Dec-18 Mon 70.47 70.77 71.21 71.97 79.86 80.32 81.15 82.57
4-Dec-18 Tue
5-Dec-18 Wed
6-Dec-18 Thu
7-Dec-18 Fri 70.82 71.09 71.54 72.30 80.54 80.96 81.80 83.21
10-Dec-18 Mon 71.36 71.65 72.09 72.85 81.52 81.98 82.82 84.23
11-Dec-18 Tue 71.87 72.17 72.62 73.39 81.80 82.28 83.13 84.55
12-Dec-18 Wed
13-Dec-18 Thu
14-Dec-18 Fri 71.70 71.98 72.44 73.18 81.59 82.03 82.88 84.27
17-Dec-18 Mon 71.56 71.87 72.28 73.02 81.15 81.62 82.41 83.78
18-Dec-18 Tue
19-Dec-18 Wed 70.42 70.66 71.10 71.83 80.28 80.68 81.50 82.87
20-Dec-18 Thu 69.72 70.01 70.46 71.19 79.91 80.35 81.19 82.58
21-Dec-18 Fri
24-Dec-18 Mon 70.15 70.44 70.87 71.63 79.96 80.40 81.21 82.61
25-Dec-18 Tue
26-Dec-18 Wed 70.09 70.37 70.81 71.56 79.80 80.22 81.04 82.44
27-Dec-18 Thu 70.37 70.64 71.08 71.83 80.17 80.59 81.39 82.78
28-Dec-18 Fri
31-Dec-18 Mon 69.79 70.07 70.50 71.23 79.92 80.34 81.15 82.51
Pound
Yen
Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
3-Dec-18 Mon 89.65 90.12 90.90 92.22 62.04 62.42 63.06 64.14
4-Dec-18 Tue
5-Dec-18 Wed
6-Dec-18 Thu
7-Dec-18 Fri 90.42 90.85 91.65 92.95 62.77 63.14 63.79 64.87
10-Dec-18 Mon 90.65 91.10 91.87 93.18 63.36 63.74 64.38 65.46
11-Dec-18 Tue 90.69 91.15 91.94 93.25 63.51 63.91 64.57 65.65
12-Dec-18 Wed
13-Dec-18 Thu
14-Dec-18 Fri 90.72 91.16 91.94 93.22 63.21 63.58 64.24 65.29
17-Dec-18 Mon 90.37 90.83 91.57 92.83 63.18 63.57 64.18 65.23
18-Dec-18 Tue
19-Dec-18 Wed 89.06 89.44 90.20 91.45 62.68 63.01 63.65 64.69
20-Dec-18 Thu 88.42 88.85 89.63 90.89 62.38 62.75 63.40 64.45
21-Dec-18 Fri
24-Dec-18 Mon 88.75 89.17 89.92 91.22 63.15 63.50 64.13 65.21
25-Dec-18 Tue
26-Dec-18 Wed 88.94 89.35 90.10 91.39 63.37 63.71 64.35 65.42
27-Dec-18 Thu 88.88 89.29 90.04 91.31 63.48 63.81 64.45 65.54
28-Dec-18 Fri
31-Dec-18 Mon 89.11 89.53 90.28 91.54 63.48 63.82 64.46 65.53
E-UpDates January 2019
11
Surge Research Support

Annualised Forward Premia
Dollar
Euro
Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
3-Dec-18 Mon 5.23 4.27 4.30 7.14 6.62 6.89
4-Dec-18 Tue
5-Dec-18 Wed
6-Dec-18 Thu
7-Dec-18 Fri 4.67 4.13 4.22 6.52 6.43 6.75
10-Dec-18 Mon 4.99 4.16 4.22 6.99 6.51 6.76
11-Dec-18 Tue 5.21 4.24 4.27 7.27 6.66 6.84
12-Dec-18 Wed
13-Dec-18 Thu
14-Dec-18 Fri 4.88 4.22 4.19 6.67 6.50 6.69
17-Dec-18 Mon 5.24 4.06 4.11 7.18 6.38 6.60
18-Dec-18 Tue
19-Dec-18 Wed 4.26 3.95 4.06 6.15 6.22 6.57
20-Dec-18 Thu 5.11 4.31 4.26 6.89 6.59 6.79
21-Dec-18 Fri
24-Dec-18 Mon 4.99 4.14 4.25 6.73 6.40 6.74
25-Dec-18 Tue
26-Dec-18 Wed 4.90 4.17 4.24 6.58 6.39 6.73
27-Dec-18 Thu 4.70 4.10 4.19 6.47 6.23 6.60
28-Dec-18 Fri
31-Dec-18 Mon 4.92 4.13 4.17 6.57 6.30 6.60
Pound
Yen
Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
3-Dec-18 Mon 6.48 5.72 5.83 7.71 6.77 6.88
4-Dec-18 Tue
5-Dec-18 Wed
6-Dec-18 Thu
7-Dec-18 Fri 5.86 5.53 5.67 7.21 6.66 6.80
10-Dec-18 Mon 6.05 5.49 5.65 7.44 6.63 6.76
11-Dec-18 Tue 6.33 5.63 5.73 7.72 6.81 6.84
12-Dec-18 Wed
13-Dec-18 Thu
14-Dec-18 Fri 5.91 5.49 5.58 7.15 6.65 6.69
17-Dec-18 Mon 6.35 5.42 5.52 7.66 6.52 6.61
18-Dec-18 Tue
19-Dec-18 Wed 5.31 5.22 5.45 6.50 6.34 6.52
20-Dec-18 Thu 5.92 5.56 5.65 7.35 6.70 6.75
21-Dec-18 Fri
24-Dec-18 Mon 5.83 5.40 5.64 6.86 6.35 6.63
25-Dec-18 Tue
26-Dec-18 Wed 5.67 5.34 5.60 6.73 6.33 6.59
27-Dec-18 Thu 5.75 5.32 5.55 6.52 6.25 6.60
28-Dec-18 Fri
31-Dec-18 Mon 5.80 5.36 5.52 6.62 6.29 6.56
E-UpDates January 2019
12
Surge Research Support

RBI
LAF
Net Injection(+)/
Absorption(-) of Liquidity
(Rs. billion)*
Interest Rates
Money Market Rates & Liquidity
Repo Rates
(Repo/Reverse
Repo)
Overnight
Rates
(%)
Call
Money**
CBLO** Mibor USD Libor
01-Dec-18 -211.1 6.50/6.25 6.18 6.26
03-Dec-18 -741.2 6.33 6.25 7.48 2.178
04-Dec-18 -373.7 6.35 6.30 7.48 2.182
05-Dec-18 -151.4 6.36 6.34 7.49 2.176
06-Dec-18 -162.2 6.34 6.36 7.47 2.172
07-Dec-18 22.8 6.41 6.44 7.47 2.182
10-Dec-18 42.9 6.42 6.46 7.48 2.181
11-Dec-18 351.3 6.48 6.55 7.48 2.182
12-Dec-18 121.9 6.52 6.56 7.49 2.182
13-Dec-18 150.1 6.41 6.44 7.48 2.185
14-Dec-18 289.4 6.05 6.20 7.47 2.184
15-Dec-18 70.6 6.49 6.66
17-Dec-18 -12.5 6.51 6.41 7.47 2.185
18-Dec-18 200.6 6.48 6.40 7.46 2.181
19-Dec-18 59.3 6.47 6.40 7.42 2.180
20-Dec-18 64.7 6.44 6.44 7.45 2.182
21-Dec-18 186.7 6.45 6.48 7.44 2.388
24-Dec-18 232.8 6.51 6.52 7.46 2.392
26-Dec-18 277.8 6.57 6.56 7.46 2.390
27-Dec-18 123.3 6.58 6.60 7.46 2.390
28-Dec-18 27.7 6.33 6.33 7.47 2.391
29-Dec-18 -477.0 6.03 6.28
31-Dec-18 6.50/6.25 6.53 6.35 7.47 2.392
*Includes liquidity provided under MSF at 6.75%; **Weighted average rates.
Repo ReverseRepo Call Money Mibor USD Libor
7.80
7.60
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
2.370
2.320
2.270
2.220
2.170
1-Dec-18
2-Dec-18
3-Dec-18
4-Dec-18
5-Dec-18
6-Dec-18
7-Dec-18
8-Dec-18
9-Dec-18
10-Dec-18
11-Dec-18
12-Dec-18
13-Dec-18
14-Dec-18
15-Dec-18
16-Dec-18
17-Dec-18
18-Dec-18
19-Dec-18
20-Dec-18
21-Dec-18
22-Dec-18
23-Dec-18
24-Dec-18
25-Dec-18
26-Dec-18
27-Dec-18
28-Dec-18
29-Dec-18
30-Dec-18
31-Dec-18
USDLibor
E-UpDates January 2019
13
Surge Research Support

Debt Market Yields
Constant Maturity Yields for Government Bonds—December 2018
Date 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year >10
Year &
15
Year &
20
Year
December-2018 6.68 6.93 7.02 7.19 7.18 7.24 7.32 7.41 7.56 7.58 7.64 7.68
Constant Maturity Yields relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity. The usual practice worldwide is to
provide yields of traded bonds for finely defined residual maturity brackets. The monthly CMYs given here provide
information on (Indian government) bond yields for several chosen residual maturities, like 3 & 6 months,
1/2/5/10/12/15 years. Say, the market determined YTMs for all traded Gilts with 340 to 380 days left to mature
would give the CMY for the 1 year maturity bracket. The monthly CMYs are estimated from marketwide data. For the
estimation methodology see:
On Developing Constant Maturity Yield Curves for India:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=300052
E-UpDates January 2019
14
Surge Research Support

Debt Market Yields
Weighted Average YTMs
8.00
7.80
7.60
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
6.88
Yields of G-Secs Traded in December 2018
January 2019
February 2019
June 2019
July 2019
January 2020
April 2020
May 2020
June 2020
December 2020
April 2021
May 2021
November 2021
June 2022
August 2022
December 2022
April 2023
May 2023
June 2023
November 2023
December 2023
June 2024
July 2024
November 2024
May 2025
September 2025
January 2026
September 2026
February 2027
May 2027
August 2027
September 2027
January 2028
June 2028
March 2029
December 2029
March 2030
May 2030
December 2030
September 2031
February 2032
August 2032
November 2033
December 2033
August 2034
December 2034
September 2035
July 2040
December 2041
December 2043
December 2044
October 2046
6.86
6.93
6.99
7.01
7.00
7.06
7.11
7.19
7.16
7.14
7.18
7.24
7.32
7.23
7.29
7.29
7.31
7.35
7.31
7.36
7.35
7.42
7.44
7.43
7.41
7.41
7.48
7.44
7.52
7.49
7.40
7.49
7.56
7.53
7.58
7.54
7.58
7.55
7.63
7.56
7.62
7.59
7.67
7.63
7.64
7.65
7.67
7.72
7.65
7.72
Maturity Year
Yields of Corporate Bonds (AAA) Traded in December 2018
Weighted Average YTM
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
January 2019
March 2019
March 2019
March 2019
April 2019
May 2019
June 2019
June 2019
July 2019
August 2019
September 2019
November 2019
December 2019
February 2020
March 2020
May 2020
June 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020
September 2020
September 2020
October 2020
November 2020
December 2020
March 2021
June 2021
August 2021
October 2021
November 2021
December 2021
January 2022
January 2022
March 2022
May 2022
June 2022
June 2022
November 2022
November 2022
February 2023
April 2023
July 2023
August 2023
September 2023
September 2023
November 2023
February 2024
August 2024
September 2024
February 2025
July 2026
September 2026
March 2027
March 2028
April 2028
August 2028
August 2028
October 2028
November 2028
November 2028
November 2028
February 2029
June 2031
7.38
7.14
7.40
7.45
7.42
7.42
7.45 8.37
8.51
8.39
8.00
8.52
8.53
8.00
8.40
8.03 9.37
8.75
8.62
8.86
8.05
8.55
8.63
8.52
8.76
8.96
8.88
8.63
8.45
8.19 9.04
8.84
8.43
8.85
8.69
7.35 8.81
8.45
8.83
8.70
8.37
8.59
8.30 9.96
8.75
9.17
8.84
8.36
8.37
6.43 8.87
7.37
10.51
9.90
8.32
8.69
8.42 9.34
8.51
8.48
8.54
8.43
12.50
8.31
8.29
8.32
6.43 8.56
8.28
8.66
8.22
8.80
8.59
8.34
8.33
8.46
8.59
8.76
8.86
8.58
9.09
8.71 9.70
9.10
9.62
9.29
11.73
6.46
6.49
8.71
8.77
6.47 8.95
6.48 8.70
9.27
9.31
9.93
9.38
9.00
9.04
8.72
8.72 10.78
9.11
8.70
8.69
8.70
8.67 9.54 10.45
10.00
8.72
8.82
8.71
8.46
8.42
8.76
8.72
8.30
11.82
6.44
6.45
6.34 8.39
6.47
Maturity Year
E-UpDates January 2019
15
Surge Research Support

BSE Equity Market
Month/
Year
No of
Companies
Listed*
No. of
Companies
Traded*
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Market
Capitalisation
(Rs.cr)*
Month
High
Month Low
Month-
Closing
P/E P/B Dividend
Yield
Sep-18 5232 2763 62476.7 3470.9 14486401.7 38934.4 35985.6 36227.1 24.05 3.10 1.19
Oct-18 5217 2660 66384.7 3161.2 13845109.4 36616.6 33291.6 34442.1 22.15 2.87 1.30
Nov-18 5216 2719 59063.8 2953.2 14288775.9 36389.2 34303.4 36194.3 23.01 2.96 1.24
NSE Capital Market Segment
CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)
Month/
Year
No of
Companies
Listed*
No. of
Companies
Traded*
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Market
Capitalisation
(Rs.cr)*
Month
High
Month Low
Month-
Closing
P/E P/B Dividend
Yield
Sep-18 1912 1847 688318.9 38239.9 14292302.0 11751.8 10850.3 10930.5 27.46 3.63 1.19
Oct-18 1921 1854 745584.2 35504.0 13693824.7 11035.7 10004.6 10386.6 25.05 3.30 1.29
Nov-18 1922 1850 610913.7 30545.7 14122534.5 10922.5 10341.9 10876.8 25.59 3.36 1.25
*End of the Month.
BSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades
Month/
Year
Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total Average
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of contracts Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Daily
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Sep-18 14 1.0 14 1.0 0.05
Oct-18 5 0.3 5 0.3 0.01
Nov-18 4 0.2 4 0.2 0.01
NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment
Month/
Year
STOCK MARKETS
Equity Market Turnover
S&P BSE Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)
Derivatives Turnover
Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of contracts Notional
Turnover
No. of
contracts
No. of
contracts
Notional
Turnover
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
(Rs. cr.)
(Rs. cr.)
(Rs. cr.)
Sep-18 5832447 540039.6 21640734 1464394.1 191276050 19337774 14933646 1116433.0 233682877 22458641.0 1247702.3
Oct-18 8230210 667269.9 24929740 1488064.9 224404182 80778.93 15074423 20743.6 272638555 22433270.1 1068251.0
Nov-18 6717256 441854.5 21315096 1187157.3 282797526 49333.37 15191944 14770.6 326021822 18404806.9 920240.3
Total
Average
Daily
Turnover
E-UpDates January 2019
16
Surge Research Support

Index Movements
BSE: S&P BSE Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)
Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield
03-Dec-18 36396.7 36446.2 36099.7 36241.0 23.56 2.99 1.21
04-Dec-18 36290.5 36295.8 36036.4 36134.3 23.39 2.97 1.22
05-Dec-18 36035.7 36048.7 35777.8 35884.4 23.48 2.98 1.21
06-Dec-18 35694.3 35707.2 35266.8 35312.1 22.96 2.92 1.24
07-Dec-18 35494.9 35730.1 35378.3 35673.3 23.31 2.96 1.22
10-Dec-18 35204.7 35247.0 34915.8 34959.7 22.86 2.91 1.24
11-Dec-18 34584.1 35207.3 34426.3 35150.0 22.83 2.90 1.25
12-Dec-18 35277.8 35826.6 35167.5 35779.1 23.48 2.99 1.21
13-Dec-18 36024.9 36095.6 35794.5 35929.6 23.64 3.01 1.21
14-Dec-18 35960.2 36019.0 35813.9 35962.9 23.47 2.98 1.22
17-Dec-18 36129.1 36312.3 36123.6 36270.1 23.78 3.02 1.20
18-Dec-18 36226.4 36375.4 36046.5 36347.1 24.09 3.06 1.18
19-Dec-18 36441.5 36555.0 36381.9 36484.3 24.26 3.08 1.18
20-Dec-18 36321.2 36475.5 36202.9 36431.7 23.94 3.04 1.19
21-Dec-18 36449.3 36483.5 35694.7 35742.1 23.49 2.98 1.21
24-Dec-18 35859.7 35910.7 35423.2 35470.2 23.30 3.00 1.18
26-Dec-18 35443.2 35711.3 35010.8 35649.9 23.34 3.00 1.18
27-Dec-18 36002.1 36041.2 35782.0 35807.3 23.40 3.01 1.17
28-Dec-18 35912.0 36194.8 35912.0 36076.7 23.69 3.04 1.16
31-Dec-18 36239.2 36285.5 36034.0 36068.3 23.64 3.04 1.16
NSE: Nifty (50 Scrips) (Nov.3, 1993=100)
Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield
03-Dec-18 10930.7 10941.2 10845.4 10883.8 26.33 3.44 1.22
04-Dec-18 10877.1 10891.0 10833.4 10869.5 26.30 3.44 1.22
05-Dec-18 10820.5 10821.1 10748.0 10782.9 26.09 3.41 1.23
06-Dec-18 10718.2 10722.7 10588.3 10601.2 25.65 3.35 1.25
07-Dec-18 10644.8 10704.6 10599.4 10693.7 25.87 3.38 1.24
10-Dec-18 10508.7 10558.9 10475.0 10488.5 25.37 3.32 1.27
11-Dec-18 10350.1 10567.2 10333.9 10549.2 25.52 3.34 1.26
12-Dec-18 10591.0 10752.2 10560.8 10737.6 25.98 3.40 1.24
13-Dec-18 10810.8 10838.6 10749.5 10791.6 26.11 3.41 1.23
14-Dec-18 10784.5 10815.8 10752.1 10805.5 26.14 3.42 1.23
17-Dec-18 10853.2 10900.4 10844.9 10888.4 26.34 3.44 1.22
18-Dec-18 10850.9 10915.4 10819.1 10908.7 26.39 3.45 1.22
19-Dec-18 10930.6 10985.2 10928.0 10967.3 26.53 3.47 1.21
20-Dec-18 10885.2 10962.6 10880.1 10951.7 26.50 3.46 1.21
21-Dec-18 10944.3 10963.7 10738.7 10754.0 26.02 3.40 1.24
24-Dec-18 10780.9 10782.3 10649.3 10663.5 25.80 3.37 1.25
26-Dec-18 10635.5 10747.5 10534.6 10729.9 25.96 3.39 1.24
27-Dec-18 10817.9 10834.2 10764.5 10779.8 26.08 3.41 1.23
28-Dec-18 10821.0 10893.6 10817.2 10859.9 26.16 3.43 1.24
31-Dec-18 10913.2 10923.6 10853.2 10862.6 26.17 3.38 1.24
E-UpDates January 2019
17
Surge Research Support

36700
36500
36300
36100
35900
35700
35500
35300
35100
34900
34700
34500
34300
Sensex High Low
Nifty High Low
11000
10900
10800
10700
10600
10500
10400
10300
03-Dec-18
04-Dec-18
05-Dec-18
06-Dec-18
07-Dec-18
10-Dec-18
11-Dec-18
12-Dec-18
13-Dec-18
14-Dec-18
17-Dec-18
18-Dec-18
19-Dec-18
20-Dec-18
21-Dec-18
24-Dec-18
26-Dec-18
27-Dec-18
28-Dec-18
31-Dec-18
FUTIDX-NIFTY Futures
(Expiry 27 December 2018)
Open High Low Close No. of Contracts Turnover ('00,000) Change in OI
03-Dec-18 10961.2 10974.0 10871.3 10924.0 105218 861353 389325
04-Dec-18 10917.8 10930.0 10872.0 10907.8 84972 694664 237900
05-Dec-18 10850.4 10868.0 10786.8 10827.7 112725 915507 260475
06-Dec-18 10750.2 10754.4 10611.7 10626.3 150266 1204083 1068525
07-Dec-18 10665.3 10748.0 10637.1 10735.2 127121 1018725 636225
10-Dec-18 10582.3 10597.7 10500.1 10514.7 123380 975766 -350100
11-Dec-18 10355.0 10607.0 10352.1 10581.1 249960 1966494 -456225
12-Dec-18 10610.0 10798.9 10588.5 10783.7 152495 1224377 293625
13-Dec-18 10834.3 10882.2 10777.3 10825.0 137102 1113463 35175
14-Dec-18 10807.0 10837.0 10771.3 10820.3 105436 854709 -532350
17-Dec-18 10855.2 10924.0 10855.2 10910.5 91705 749192 -86550
18-Dec-18 10862.0 10940.0 10835.2 10935.1 107754 879800 189675
19-Dec-18 10960.0 11006.3 10946.5 10986.5 94427 777487 115425
20-Dec-18 10905.5 10991.0 10891.3 10978.2 131614 1079810 -218400
21-Dec-18 10960.0 10981.7 10755.0 10767.5 196680 1599365 -704100
24-Dec-18 10758.6 10790.0 10660.3 10681.9 190049 1530078 -5308350
26-Dec-18 10637.7 10760.7 10536.4 10748.5 268005 2137624 -3812550
27-Dec-18 10801.0 10834.4 10763.8 10783.7 180404 1460796 -3462825
E-UpDates January 2019
18
Surge Research Support

Equity/Trading Date
Capital Flows
Mutual Funds Investment Trends
Gross
Purchases (Rs
Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
03-Dec-18 2487.8 3248.0 -760.3
04-Dec-18 1638.7 1907.2 -268.5
05-Dec-18 1599.1 1954.2 -355.1
06-Dec-18 2174.2 2117.9 56.3
07-Dec-18 2466.7 1882.9 583.7
10-Dec-18 2726.6 3057.5 -330.9
11-Dec-18 3789.9 2293.9 1496.0
12-Dec-18 3294.9 2061.8 1233.1
13-Dec-18 2304.2 2420.8 -116.6
14-Dec-18 2031.0 2233.0 -202.0
17-Dec-18 1681.9 1770.5 -88.5
18-Dec-18 1685.2 1698.8 -13.6
19-Dec-18 2696.5 2912.6 -216.1
20-Dec-18 2277.9 1815.2 462.8
21-Dec-18 3227.7 3451.0 -223.4
24-Dec-18 1481.6 1148.2 333.4
26-Dec-18 2244.3 1790.8 453.6
27-Dec-18 4403.7 5555.4 -1151.8
28-Dec-18 2425.2 1034.1 1391.1
31-Dec-18 1562.6 926.8 635.8
Total for December 48199.59 45280.62 2918.97
Debt/ Trading Date
Gross
Purchases (Rs
Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
03-Dec-18 19407.0 9739.0 9668.0
04-Dec-18 11453.9 6357.9 5096.0
05-Dec-18 17192.5 9795.6 7396.9
06-Dec-18 13043.3 10177.6 2865.7
07-Dec-18 7241.0 7077.3 163.7
10-Dec-18 10521.0 10213.6 307.4
11-Dec-18 9914.6 6977.8 2936.8
12-Dec-18 9696.5 7741.9 1954.6
13-Dec-18 8354.1 7570.0 784.1
14-Dec-18 18865.6 14262.0 4603.6
17-Dec-18 10969.1 7554.9 3414.2
18-Dec-18 15613.4 9482.5 6130.8
19-Dec-18 13994.3 9790.3 4204.0
20-Dec-18 13134.1 9765.9 3368.2
21-Dec-18 7676.2 7740.6 -64.4
24-Dec-18 9603.8 6406.4 3197.4
26-Dec-18 9804.7 6721.8 3082.8
27-Dec-18 11536.2 7149.6 4386.6
28-Dec-18 15308.5 9210.5 6098.0
31-Dec-18 7876.0 12235.4 -4359.4
E-UpDates January 2019
Total for December 241205.45 175970.45 65235
19
Surge Research Support

Mutual Funds' Asset
Position (Rs. Crore)
April 1, 2018 to December 31,
2018
Private Sector
Mutual Funds
Public Sector
Mutual Funds (of which) UTI Total
Mobilisation of Funds 144,69,181.1 34,44,490.2 14,39,619.7
179,13,671.3
Net Inflow/ Outflow (-ve) of funds 36,326.8 50,375.6 8,423.9 86,702.5
Cumulative Position of Net Assets as on
December 31, 2018
18,43,027.3 4,42,884.4 1,48,672.4 22,85,911.7
80.63% 19.37% 6.50% 100.00%
ECB (& FCCB) Oct-18 Nov-18
Automatic Route 1,402,537,165 1,296,772,358
Approval Route 85,39,315 7000,00,000
Total ECB 1,411,076,481 1,996,772,358
Value in US$.
FPI Investments in Primary & Secondary Markets
Debt/Reporting Date Gross Gross Sales
Net
Net Investment
Purchases (Rs Crores) Investment
(Rs Crores)
(Rs Crores)
US$ million
03-Dec-18 1712.88 1565.63 147.25 21.1
04-Dec-18 798.29 2339.16 -1540.87 -220.0
05-Dec-18 984.98 563.63 421.35 59.9
06-Dec-18 1589.77 452.32 1137.45 161.3
07-Dec-18 3739.53 1161.05 2578.48 363.0
10-Dec-18 1550.36 414.09 1136.27 161.0
11-Dec-18 553.34 1996.02 -1442.68 -202.3
12-Dec-18 2063.73 2181.41 -117.68 -16.4
13-Dec-18 893.84 2429.63 -1535.79 -213.2
14-Dec-18 2702.58 1826.38 876.2 122.5
17-Dec-18 1021.52 934.81 86.71 12.1
18-Dec-18 821.8 833.72 -11.92 -1.7
19-Dec-18 1194.07 810.68 383.39 53.9
20-Dec-18 1933.06 722.58 1210.48 172.7
21-Dec-18 2673.06 1913.83 759.23 108.0
24-Dec-18 1859.49 1181.13 678.36 96.9
26-Dec-18 1140.52 582.3 558.22 79.6
27-Dec-18 440.05 487.46 -47.41 -6.8
28-Dec-18 323.13 487.29 -164.16 -23.3
31-Dec-18 374.95 739.2 -364.25 -52.1
Total for December 28370.95 23622.32 4748.63 676.17
Total for 2018 280710.15 328506.24 -47796.09 -6927.62
E-UpDates January 2019
20
Surge Research Support

Equity/Reporting Date
Gross
Purchases (Rs
Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
Net
Investment
US$ Million
03-Dec-18 12233.4 12391.6 -158.2 -22.7
04-Dec-18 5214.9 5052.9 162.0 23.1
05-Dec-18 5404.4 5377.1 27.3 3.9
06-Dec-18 5065.8 5426.7 -360.8 -51.2
07-Dec-18 5395.9 5449.2 -53.4 -7.5
10-Dec-18 9198.3 4453.2 4745.2 672.4
11-Dec-18 5963.9 4169.3 1794.6 251.6
12-Dec-18 3757.0 6653.7 -2896.7 -402.7
13-Dec-18 4135.2 5608.2 -1473.1 -204.5
14-Dec-18 4900.1 4486.6 413.5 57.8
17-Dec-18 3854.4 3092.1 762.3 106.3
18-Dec-18 3238.6 3441.0 -202.4 -28.2
19-Dec-18 4369.3 4709.9 -340.7 -47.9
20-Dec-18 5999.5 4983.9 1015.6 144.9
21-Dec-18 4017.6 4647.6 -630.0 -89.6
24-Dec-18 6483.3 6476.0 7.3 1.0
26-Dec-18 1767.7 2640.7 -873.0 -124.4
27-Dec-18 1845.6 1989.5 -143.8 -20.6
28-Dec-18 5602.0 4024.6 1577.4 224.3
31-Dec-18 2683.6 2913.5 -229.9 -32.9
Total for December 101130.4 97987.2 3143.2 453.2
Total for 2018 1340590.9 1373604.0 -33013.1 -4390.5
Net Flows (Rs. Cr.)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
-2500
-3000
-158.2
162.0
27.3
56.3
-760.3 -268.5
-360.8
-355.1
-53.4
583.7
4,745.2
1,794.6
-330.9
-2,896.7
1496.0
1233.1
-1,473.1
413.5
-116.6
-202.0
762.3
1,015.6
-202.4
-88.5
-13.6
-340.7
-216.1 462.8
-630.0
-223.4
333.4
7.3
453.6
-873.0
-143.8
-1151.8 1391.11
1,577.4
635.78
-229.9
FPI
Equity
MF
Equity
3-Dec-18
10-Dec-18
17-Dec-18
24-Dec-18
31-Dec-18
Foreign Investment
2017-18* 2018-19* Oct-18 Nov-18
Foreign Investment Inflows 27,541.0 29,496.0 4,979.0 1,229.0
Net Direct Investments 21,143.0 22,198.0 3,717.0 855.0
Net Portfolio Inflows 19,959.0 –12,983 –4,926 1,707.0
US$ million; *April-November.
E-UpDates January 2019
21
Surge Research Support

Turnover
(Rs. Crore)
Corporate
Bonds-NSE
Corporate
Bonds-BSE
Currency
Derivatives -
NSE
Currency
Derivatives-
BSE
Interest rate
Derivatives-
NSE
Interest rate
Derivatives-
BSE
Commodity
Dervatives-
MCX
Commodity
Dervatives-
NCDEX
Oct-18 85,079 35,876 7,77,529 6,41,295 22,605 9,223 6,25,961 54,066
Nov-18 82,928 40,773 6,81,660 5,73,746 20,287 6,157 5,78,649 57,368
Commodity Futures & Spot Markets
Commodity Futures & Spot Prices
Sugar* Wheat* Refined Soya Oil* Energy: Crude Oil** Bullion: Gold**
(100 Kgs) (100 Kgs) (10 Kgs) (1 Bbl.) (10 Grams)
Date Futures Spot Futures Spot Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot
03-Dec-18 3017.0 2113.0 725.7 3756.0 3548.0 30889.0 30664.0
04-Dec-18 3000.0 2113.0 730.2 3798.0 3708.0 31106.0 30945.0
05-Dec-18 3004.0 2145.0 732.8 3832.0 3746.0 31075.0 30855.0
06-Dec-18 3005.0 2145.0 730.1 3653.0 3730.0 31089.0 30987.0
07-Dec-18 2996.0 2137.0 734.1 3879.0 3658.0 31595.0 31050.0
10-Dec-18 2991.0 2098.0 744.6 3797.0 3712.0 32028.0 31423.0
11-Dec-18 2990.0 2100.0 742.6 3787.0 3638.0 31935.0 31616.0
12-Dec-18 2975.0 2106.0 742.8 3781.0 3715.0 31732.0 31577.0
13-Dec-18 2981.0 2102.0 737.8 3750.0 3685.0 31527.0 31410.0
14-Dec-18 2979.0 2116.0 738.3 3727.0 3761.0 31553.0 31374.0
17-Dec-18 2999.0 2113.0 734.6 3642.0 3673.0 31630.0 31287.0
18-Dec-18 2995.0 2993.4 2121.0 2089.6 732.8 736.3 3385.0 3575.0 31163.0 31205.0
19-Dec-18 2996.0 2995.0 2111.0 2070.3 730.9 736.1 3380.0 3292.0 31227.0 31043.0
20-Dec-18 2989.0 2988.4 2151.0 2076.7 728.7 735.9 3245.0 3377.0 31311.0 31040.0
21-Dec-18 2989.0 2977.5 2142.0 2089.7 726.1 734.8 3236.0 3225.0 31193.0 31114.0
24-Dec-18 2989.0 2979.0 2128.0 2091.4 720.1 730.5 3077.0 3193.0 31460.0 31190.0
26-Dec-18 2989.0 2973.4 2106.0 2071.9 718.8 726.2 3214.0 2985.0 31559.0 31452.0
27-Dec-18 2989.0 2974.4 2112.0 2080.0 723.5 728.8 3183.0 3235.0 31713.0 31513.0
28-Dec-18 3019.0 2970.0 2112.0 2079.2 723.8 733.9 3185.0 3137.0 31598.0 31547.0
31-Dec-18 3027.0 2980.0 2126.0 2079.4 730.1 738.8 3170.0 3172.0 31391.0 31566.0
*National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. **Multi Commodity Exchange of India. Futures: January (Sugar: March; Gold: February) contracts.
E-UpDates January 2019
22
Surge Research Support

Commodity Futures Indices
TRMCX-
Composite
TRMCX-
Bullion
TRMCX-
BaseMetals
TRMCX-
CrudeOil
MCXAgri
NCDEX-Dhaanya
03-Dec-18 580.32 732.96 795.40 290.88 2816.71 3394.75
04-Dec-18 583.99 738.48 795.18 294.13 2795.04 3403.55
05-Dec-18 586.07 737.69 801.39 296.77 2802.61 3384.34
06-Dec-18 578.67 737.26 792.68 282.90 2783.24 3375.81
07-Dec-18 591.75 749.76 801.20 300.41 2767.76 3383.13
10-Dec-18 594.70 759.62 804.99 294.05 2779.35 3402.59
11-Dec-18 594.03 757.66 809.86 293.28 2811.70 3374.88
12-Dec-18 589.46 754.44 798.94 292.82 2831.23 3403.12
13-Dec-18 586.14 749.71 795.63 290.41 2818.54 3389.72
14-Dec-18 583.70 749.21 791.95 288.63 2820.75 3397.63
17-Dec-18 580.49 751.11 791.15 282.05 2834.68 3367.75
18-Dec-18 564.91 739.51 767.61 262.15 2829.15 3317.21
19-Dec-18 567.17 741.53 775.76 261.76 2841.13 3325.29
20-Dec-18 562.32 742.67 770.22 251.39 2856.79 3331.31
21-Dec-18 559.24 739.44 763.38 250.57 2854.70 3314.67
24-Dec-18 555.49 745.66 761.43 238.35 2831.80 3231.51
26-Dec-18 561.47 749.99 765.86 249.04 2828.80 3270.93
27-Dec-18 562.24 754.49 765.32 246.67 2838.45 3256.25
28-Dec-18 558.80 752.28 755.64 246.67 2828.37 3268.98
31-Dec-18 554.83 748.80 749.01 244.76 2845.71 3321.74
TRMCX: Thomson Reuters – MCX India Commodity Indices (iCOMDEX).
Multi Commodity Exchange of India and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd: Index Close
830.0
730.0
630.0
530.0
430.0
3700.00
3600.00
3500.00
3400.00
3300.00
3200.00
3100.00
3000.00
MCXAgri, Dhaanya
TRMCX-
Composite
TRMCX-
Bullion
TRMCX-
BaseMetals
TRMCX-
CrudeOil
330.0
2900.00
2800.00
MCXAgri
230.0
3-Dec
5-Dec
7-Dec
9-Dec
11-Dec
13-Dec
15-Dec
17-Dec
19-Dec
21-Dec
23-Dec
25-Dec
27-Dec
29-Dec
31-Dec
2700.00
NCDEX-
Dhaanya
E-UpDates January 2019
23
Surge Research Support

Indicator/
Country
Q3
Global Economic Indicators
Economic & Financial Market Indicators for Major Global Economies
Growth Inflation Interest Rates
For more Countrywise Indicators and Updates visit:
http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/
Stock
Market
External Sector
December
Country Risk
GDP IIP CPI PPI Shortterterm
Long-
Share Exchange Trade Balance FX Reserves Sovereign Rating**
Price Rate
Rate Rate Growth*
(% change on year ago) (%)
(per US$)
(US$ bn.)
November
14 January 2019
USA 3.0 Nov 3.9 2.2 2.5 2.78 2.71 -3.3 Oct -872.9 Nov/123.5 AA+/Stable
Canada 2.1 Oct 3.8 1.7 2.8 2.24 1.96 -8.7 1.33 Nov -17.0 83.9 AAA/Stable
UK 1.5 Nov -1.5 2.3 3.1 0.92 1.33 -10.2 0.77 Nov -183.9 176.6 AA/-ve
Euro area 1.6 Nov -3.3 1.9 4.0 0.00 0.23 -12.4 0.87 Nov 236.7 Nov/67.3 (EU)AA/Stable
Germany 1.2 Nov -4.6 2.3 3.3 0.00 0.23 -15.7 0.87 Nov 275.9 173.1 AAA/Stable
France 1.4 Nov -2.1 1.9 2.6 0.00 0.68 -9.4 0.87 Nov -72.9 AA/Stable
Italy 0.7 Nov -2.6 1.6 4.5 0.00 2.86 -12.2 0.87 Oct 49.8 BBB/-ve
Spain 2.5 Nov -2.8 1.7 3.0 0.00 1.45 -12.1 0.87 Oct -38.0 A-/+ve
Russia 1.5 Nov 2.4 3.8 16.8 7.51 8.49 -1.6 66.0 Oct 182.0 Nov/462.1 BBB-/Stable
Japan 0.0 Nov 1.4 0.9 2.3 0.00 0.02 -10.3 111.00 Nov 13.2 1271.0 A+/ +ve
China 6.5 Nov 5.4 2.2 2.7 2.96 2.94 -23.1 6.76 Dec 351.8 3072.7 A+/Stable
Hong Kong 2.9 Q3 1.1 2.6 1.83 1.96 -11.6 7.84 Nov -72.8 424.6 AA+/Stable
Indonesia 5.2 Nov 1.5 3.2 7.43 8.00 -1.3 13353.00 Dec -8.6 120.6 BBB-/Stable
Malaysia 4.4 Nov 2.5 0.2 3.66 4.07 -7.2 4.10 Nov 29.1 101.4 A-/Stable
Singapore 2.2 Nov 7.6 0.3 5.1 2.18 -7.2 1.35 Nov 45.5 AAA/Stable
South Korea 2.0 Nov 0.1 2.0 1.85 1.98 -16.3 1122.00 Dec 70.0 403.7 AA/Stable
Thailand 3.3 Nov 1 0.9 1.69 2.23 -9.3 31.0 Nov 1.2 205.6 BBB+/Stable
Brazil 1.3 Nov -0.9 4.1 10.8 6.42 7.39 22.5 3.72 Dec 58.7 374.7 BB-/Stable
Chile 2.8 Nov 0.4 2.8 0.37 4.26 673.00 Dec 5.4 39.8 A+/ Stable
Mexico 2.5 Nov -1.3 4.7 6.5 8.60 8.68 -11.6 19.00 Nov -15.5 Nov/176.5 BBB+/Stable
South Africa 1.1 Nov 1.3 5.2 6.8 7.15 8.81 -10.6 13.00 Nov 0.7 51.6 BB/Stable
India 7.1 Nov 0.5 3.3 4.6 6.64 7.43 6.3 70.0 Dec -183.8 393.4 BBB-/Stable
Note: Trade balance for last 12 months. FX Reserves at end of period.
*Per cent change of the major index in US$ terms between December 29, 2017 and January 9, 2019. **Foreign Currency Ratings by S&P.
5.7
5.2
4.7
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.7
2.2
World Output, Inflation & Trade (% change, IMF, WEO Database & Updates)
GDP Inflation Trade
3.5 3.3
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.2
5.2
3.7
3.2
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
E-UpDates January 2019
24
Surge Research Support

S&P BSE
Sensex
(India)
DJI (US)
S&P
500(US)
Global Stock Indices
Selected Indian & International Stock Indices
FTSE
100(UK)
FTSE 100
(Europe)
NIKKEI 225
(Japan)
HSI
(HongKong)
IPC
(Mexico)
BOVESPA
(Brazil)
03-Dec-18 36,241.00 25,826.43 2,790.37 7,062.41 2,764.29 22,574.76 27,182.04 42,081.78 89,820.00
04-Dec-18 36,134.31 25,027.07 2,700.06 7,022.76 2,749.01 22,036.05 27,260.44 41,865.07 88,624.00
05-Dec-18 35,884.41 21,919.33 26,819.68 41,895.27 89,040.00
06-Dec-18 35,312.13 24,947.67 2,695.95 6,921.84 2,712.85 21,501.62 26,156.38 41,987.00 88,846.00
07-Dec-18 35,673.25 24,388.95 2,633.08 6,704.05 2,626.92 21,678.68 26,063.76 41,870.13 88,115.00
10-Dec-18 34,959.72 24,423.26 2,637.72 6,778.11 2,644.11 21,219.50 25,752.38 41,356.04 85,915.00
11-Dec-18 35,150.01 24,370.24 2,636.78 6,721.54 2,600.73 21,148.02 25,771.67 40,897.85 86,420.00
12-Dec-18 35,779.07 24,527.27 2,651.07 6,806.94 2,638.54 21,602.75 26,186.71 86,977.00
13-Dec-18 35,929.64 24,597.38 2,650.54 6,880.19 2,682.34 21,816.19 26,524.35 41,512.51 87,838.00
14-Dec-18 35,962.93 24,100.51 2,599.95 6,877.50 2,680.88 21,374.83 26,094.79 41,312.17 87,450.00
17-Dec-18 36,270.07 23,592.98 2,545.94 6,845.17 2,664.69 21,506.88 26,087.98 40,340.51 86,400.00
18-Dec-18 36,347.08 23,675.64 2,546.16 6,773.24 2,635.69 21,115.45 25,814.25 40,917.57 86,610.00
19-Dec-18 36,484.33 23,323.66 2,506.96 6,701.59 2,609.70 20,987.92 25,865.39 41,388.28 85,674.00
20-Dec-18 36,431.67 22,859.60 2,467.42 6,765.94 2,617.39 20,392.58 25,623.53 41,683.27 85,269.00
21-Dec-18 35,742.07 22,445.37 2,416.62 6,711.93 2,582.59 20,166.19 25,753.42 41,468.56 85,697.00
24-Dec-18 35,470.15 21,792.20 2,351.10 6,721.17 2,584.28 25,651.38 41,380.11
26-Dec-18 35,649.94 22,878.45 2,467.70 6,685.99 2,573.86 19,327.06 41,573.61 85,136.00
27-Dec-18 35,807.28 23,138.82 2,488.83 6,584.68 2,524.38 20,077.62 25,478.88 41,417.85 85,460.00
28-Dec-18 36,076.72 23,062.40 2,485.74 6,733.97 2,577.83 20,014.77 25,504.20 41,459.15 87,887.00
31-Dec-18 36,068.33 23,327.46 2,506.85 6,728.13 2,585.52 25,845.70 41,640.27
Closing Values
International Stock Index Movements vs S&P BSE Sensex, December-2018
DJI (US)
S&P 500 (US)
FTSE 100(UK)
FTSE 100 (Europe)
NIKKEI 225
(Japan)
HSI (HongKong) IPC (Mexico) BOVESPA (Brazil)
E-UpDates January 2019
25
Surge Research Support

Global Commodity Prices
Primary Commodity Indices*/ Prices
Units Descriptor Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
Index Number* Non-Energy Commodities 84.46 84.82 84.24 82.26 81.14 80.82
Index Number* Agriculture 85.33 85.60 84.86 83.35 82.25 82.66
Index Number* Food 88.60 89.19 88.20 86.40 84.84 86.08
Index Number* Grains 79.08 80.33 81.40 87.37 85.85 88.39
Index Number* Metals & Minerals 83.39 83.46 84.11 79.35 77.50 76.07
Index Number* Energy 70.85 76.63 78.11 96.87 81.91 72.65
USD per Barrel Crude Oil, Brent 57.62 62.57 64.21 80.47 65.17 56.46
USD per Barrel Crude Oil Dubai Fateh 55.58 60.58 61.41 78.96 65.11 56.47
USD per Barrel Crude Oil WTI 51.56 56.65 57.94 70.75 56.67 48.95
USD per Million Metric British Natural Gas, H H, Louisiana 2.87 2.99 2.76 3.29 4.14 3.98
Thermal Unit
USD per Metric Ton Coal, Australian Thermal 97.11 96.64 100.81 108.73 100.73 101.37
USD per Metric Ton Aluminum 2131.49 2097.44 2080.47 2029.86 1938.51 1920.38
USD per Metric Ton Copper 6807.60 6826.55 6833.89 6219.59 6195.92 6075.32
USD per Metric Ton Iron Ore 61.66 64.24 72.25 73.41 73.26 69.15
USD per Troy Oz. Gold 1279.51 1281.90 1264.45 1215.39 1220.65 1250.40
USD per Kg Rubber 1.46 1.43 1.46 1.32 1.23 1.26
USD per Kg Cotton 1.73 1.77 1.88 1.91 1.91 1.90
USD per Metric Ton Sunflower oil 804.82 809.86 800.76 718.04 706.09 703.00
USD per Metric Ton Groundnut oil 1481.11 1502.29 1510.17 1433.63 1438.26 1434.58
USD per Metric Ton Soybean Oil 880.60 886.77 867.20 752.37 729.22 727.88
USD per Metric Ton Soybeans 396.52 393.85 387.15 367.96 374.04 380.53
USD per Kg Sugar, EU 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.37
USD per Kg Sugar, U.S. 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.56
USD per Kg Sugar, World (ISA) 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.29 0.28 0.28
USD per Kg Tea*** 3.29 3.23 3.13 2.74 2.70 2.64
USD per Kg Coffee, Arabicas 3.10 3.11 3.03 3.03 3.02 2.80
USD per Metric Ton Rice, Bangkok 394.00 402.00 406.00 409.00 401.00 404.00
USD per Metric Ton Wheat, US 177.01 175.66 172.49 209.10 210.85 217.81
*World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries (2010=100); ** Avg.of Colombo, Kolkata & Mombasa auctions.
Observed & Projected Price Movements, IMF WEO Database
2019
148.45
115.76
2018
154.07
117.56
2017
146.32
115.80
2016
119.73
113.25
134.57
136.43
115.59
100.25
128.87
154.65
134.74
130.03
152.04
138.76
98.99
148.59
133.52
80.29
145.35
117.01
Crude Oil Index(Petroleum), Brent, West
Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh
Metals Price Index, Copper, Aluminum, Iron
Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, and Uranium
Price Indices
Food Price Index includes Cereal, Vegetable
Oils, Meat, Seafood, Sugar, Bananas, and
Oranges
Agricultural Raw Materials Index includes
Timber, Cotton, Wool, Rubber, and Hides
Price
Industrial Inputs Price Index includes
Agricultural Raw Materials and Metals
Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices
0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00
E-UpDates January 2019
26
Surge Research Support

Following are the Highlights of RBI’s December 2018 Financial Stability Report:
Overall assessment of systemic risks
India’s financial system remains stable, and the banking sector shows signs of improvement, even though the global economic environment and
the emerging trends in financial sector pose challenges.
Global and domestic macro-financial risks
• The global growth outlook for 2018 and 2019 remains steady although the underlying downside risks have risen.
• Spill-over risk to emerging economies engendered by tightening of financial conditions in Advanced Economies, protectionist trade policies and
global geopolitical tension has significantly increased.
• The gradual monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies (AEs) as also the uncertainty in global trade regime may adversely affect
capital flows to emerging markets (EMs) and exert upward pressure on EM interest rates and corporate spreads.
• On the domestic front, growth of gross domestic product (GDP) showed slight moderation in Q2:2018-19 while inflation remains contained.
• In domestic financial markets, structural shifts in credit intermediation and the evolving interconnectivity between banks and the non-banks call
for greater vigilance.
Financial Institutions: Performance and risks
• Credit growth of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) has improved between March 2018 and September 2018, driven largely by private sector
banks (PVBs).
• The asset quality of banks showed an improvement with the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio of SCBs declining from 11.5 per cent in
March 2018 to 10.8 per cent in September 2018.
• Under the baseline scenario, GNPA ratio may decline from 10.8 per cent in September 2018 to 10.3 per cent in March 2019.
• Analysis of the financial network structure for the period September 2017 - September 2018 reveals a shrinking inter-bank market and increasing
bank linkages with asset management companies-mutual funds (AMC-MFs) for raising funds and with NBFCs/Housing Finance Companies
(HFCs) for lending.
Following are the Highlights of RBI’s Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2017-18:
This Report presents the performance and salient policy measures relating to the banking sector during 2017-18 and 2018-19 so far. The Report
also provides an analysis of the co-operative banks and non-banking financial institutions. The highlights of the Report are set out below:
• The overhang of stressed assets weighed down the consolidated balance sheet of the banking sector, necessitating large provisions, which
adversely affected their profitability during 2017-18. Recent data for H1:2018-19, however, indicates that the non-performing assets (NPAs)
have begun to stabilise, albeit at an elevated level; capital positions have been buffered and the provision coverage ratio has improved.
• The year 2017-18 can be considered a watershed in the resolution of stressed assets as the foundation of a new, comprehensive, decisive and
credible framework was laid and built upon through the Reserve Bank’s circular dated February 12, 2018 under the overarching mandate of the
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC).
• The revival in credit growth in 2017-18, from the deceleration in the previous year, coupled with improving share of bank finance in the total
flow of resources to the commercial sector, augurs well for the growth prospects of the banking sector. The continuing credit growth recovery in
2018-19 (up to October 2018) may further reinforce this momentum.
• The Reserve Bank took steps to progressively align the liquidity risk management practices of the Indian banking system with international
standards. Further, commercial banks were allowed to co-originate priority sector loans with non-deposit taking systemically important nonbanking
financial companies (NBFCs-ND-SI) to enhance the efficiency of credit delivery to priority sectors.
• In the co-operative banking space, the consolidated balance sheet of urban co-operative banks (UCBs) moderated in 2017–18 on account of
slower deposit growth. While the overall profitability of these banks moderated, their asset quality improved. The eligible UCBs are now
allowed to transit to small finance banks (SFBs), which would enable them to carry out a wider range of activities and also have a pan-India
presence.
E-UpDates January 2019
27
Surge Research Support

• Within the rural co-operatives arena, the performance of state co-operative banks (StCBs) in terms of NPA ratios and profitability continued to
improve whereas the performance of district central co-operative banks (DCCBs) deteriorated.
• The balance sheets of NBFCs, especially that of companies that provide loan finance (NBFCs-Loan Companies), have been growing manifold
against the backdrop of relative decline in their cost of lending vis-à-vis banks and subdued credit growth of scheduled commercial banks
(SCBs) in the previous three years. The consolidated balance sheet of NBFCs expanded in 2017-18 and during the first half of 2018-19. The
profitability of NBFCs improved on account of fund-based income, relatively lower NPA levels and strong capital position. The recent concerns
about some NBFCs are being proactively addressed.
The Report flags major challenges that are likely to shape the outlook for the financial sector in India, which include:
• Continuing with the progress made under the new resolution framework with the IBC as the focal point;
• The need for adequate recapitalisation of public sector banks;
• Firming up of corporate governance mechanisms to address the growing complexity of the Indian financial system; and
• Strengthening the asset-liability framework for NBFCs to bring it on par with that of banks and harmonising it across different categories of
NBFCs.
Following are the Highlights of RBI’s Report on India’s External Debt as at the end of September
2018:
At end-September 2018, India’s external debt witnessed a decline of 3.6 per cent over its level at end-March 2018, on account of a decrease in
commercial borrowings and non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits. The decrease in the magnitude of external debt was primarily due to valuation
gains resulting from the appreciation of the US dollar against the Indian rupee and major currencies. The external debt to GDP ratio stood at 20.8
per cent at end-September 2018, higher than its level of 20.5 per cent at end-March 2018. 1
Major highlights pertaining to India’s external debt at end-September 2018 are presented below:
• At end-September 2018, India’s external debt was placed at US$ 510.4 billion, recording a decrease of US$ 19.3 billion over its level at end-
March 2018.
• Valuation gains due to the appreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis the Indian rupee and major currencies (viz., SDR, yen, euro, and pound
sterling) were placed at US$ 25.4 billion. Excluding the valuation effect, the increase in external debt would have been US$ 6.1 billion instead of
a decrease of US$ 19.3 billion at end-September 2018 over end-March 2018.
• Commercial borrowings continued to be the largest component of external debt with a share of 37.1 per cent, followed by NRI deposits (23.9 per
cent) and short-term trade credit (19.9 per cent).
• At end-September 2018, long-term debt (with original maturity of above one year) was placed at US$ 406.1 billion, recording a decline of US$
21.4 billion over its level at end-March 2018.
• The share of long-term debt (original maturity) in total external debt at end-September 2018 was 79.6 per cent, lower than its level of 80.7 per
cent at end-March 2018.
• The share of short-term debt (with original maturity of up to one year) in total external debt increased to 20.4 per cent at end-September 2018
from 19.3 per cent at end-March 2018. The ratio of short-term debt (original maturity) to foreign exchange reserves increased to 26.1 per cent at
end-September 2018 (24.1 per cent at end-March 2018).
• Short-term debt on a residual maturity basis (i.e., debt obligations that include long-term debt by original maturity falling due over the next
twelve months and short-term debt by original maturity) constituted 43.8 per cent of total external debt at end-September 2018 (42.0 per cent at
end-March 2018) and stood at 55.8 per cent of foreign exchange reserves (52.3 per cent at end-March 2018).
• US dollar denominated debt continued to be the largest component of India’s external debt with a share of 49.7 per cent at end-September 2018,
followed by the Indian rupee (36.1 per cent), SDR (5.3 per cent), yen (4.7 per cent) and euro (3.2 per cent).
• The borrower-wise classification shows that the outstanding debt of both government and non-government sectors decreased at end-September
2018.
• Debt service payments declined to 6.5 per cent of current receipts at end-September 2018 as compared with 7.5 per cent at end-March 2018 –
reflecting lower repayments of external commercial borrowings.
E-UpDates January 2019
28
Surge Research Support

Following are the Highlights of RBI’s Report on India’s International Investment Position,
September 2018:
• Net claims of non-residents on India declined by US$ 18.5 billion from their level a quarter ago.
• The decline in net claims was due to a sharper fall in foreign owned assets in India as compared with that in the Indian residents’ overseas
financial assets.
• Indian residents’ financial assets abroad declined by US$ 3.5 billion over the level in the previous quarter, mainly due to reduction in reserve
assets, even as overseas direct investments increased.
• Foreign-owned assets in India declined by US$ 22.0 billion, mainly due to reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment;
trade credit, however, increased during the quarter.
• Depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar contributed to the decline in net claims of non-residents during the quarter.
• Reserve assets accounted for two-thirds of India’s international financial assets.
• The share of debt liabilities in total liabilities increased marginally during the quarter.
• The ratio of India’s international financial assets to international financial liabilities stood at 60.7 per cent in September 2018 (59.8 per cent in
June 2018).
E-UpDates January 2019
29
Surge Research Support

E-UpDates Subscription (Renewal) form
One year subscription: Rs. 3600.00
Back issue: Rs. 150.00 (per issue)
SUBSCRIBER INFORMATION
(Please complete the form clearly to receive information and offerings from Ecofin-Surge)
Subscription for……………………………. Subscription Number……………..…………
(New subscription or Renewal or Back issue)
(for renewal)
Issues from……………………………………………….. to ……………………………………………….
(please specify for Back issues)
Name ………………………………………………………………………………………
Organization ………………………………………………………………………………
Address1…………………………………………………………………………………...
Address2…………………………………………………………………………………...
City…………………………………………….. State ……………………………………
Pin……………………..Phone………………….…… Email…………………………….
PAYMENT INFORMATION
Cheque (in favour of SURGE RESEARCH SUPPORT)
Cheque Number …………………. Bank ………..……………………..
Date………………………….. Amount……………
OR
Bank Transfer (made payable to SURGE RESEARCH SUPPORT)
Bank Name: Axis Bank
Branch: Rashbehari Avenue, Kolkata
A/C Number: 911020021891851 IFS Code: UTIB0000253
Date………………………….. Amount……………
Please complete this page and mail (/email) it to:
Sakuntala Sarkar
For: Surge Research Support
772, R.N. Tagore Road
Kolkata 700 077
West Bengal, INDIA
Email: ecofin.surge@gmail.com
E-UpDates January 2019
30
Surge Research Support

2019
EUpDates
January 2019
A Monthly Statistical Bulletin
To subscribe visit
www.ecofin-surge.co.in/kiosk.html
or email
ecofin-surge@gmail.com
Rs. 3600.00 (12 Issues)
E-UpDates January 2019
31
Surge Surge Research Research Support Support
www.ecofin-surge.co.in
1/15/2019