08-03-2019

More documents

Recommendations

Info

EDITORIAL FriDaY, MarcH 8, 2019 4 Higher Education in Bangladesh needs Acting Editor & Publisher : Jobaer Alam Telephone: +8802-9104683-84, Fax: 9127103 e-mail: editor@thebangladeshtoday.com Friday, March 8, 2019 Ensuring progress in health sector The health sector of the country as it observed the World Health Day sometime ago, presents a mixed picture of significant progress, some unattained objectives and cases of back sliding. The incumbent government had promised a great deal in its previous election manifesto and must be credited for having worked considerably to keep its promises. For example, it was stated in the election manifesto of the Awami League five years ago that in order to expand and strengthen health services at the grassroots level in the country, some 18,000 community clinics would be established at ward level under a new health policy. Some 10,000 of these community clinics have been set up throughout the country. Some more of these clinics at upazilla and union levels are being planned to be integrated under the community clinic framework. This could be accepted as a very laudable achievement but for the fact that in most cases these clinics are not delivering amply health services consistent with their potentials. A dearth of doctors, nurses, technicians and medical equipment are noted in these clinics in many cases. Thus, the challenge remains to provision these clinics adequately and run them efficiently. The issue of absentee doctors must be addressed - specially-- through a proper accountability procedure so that such doctors are only obligated to discharge their duties with due sincerity at their due places of posting. Many doctors on the government's health services in connivance with unscrupulous officials in the Health Ministry are usually able to avoid serving in the rural areas. Many of them remain in Dhaka month after month and draw their salaries and other benefits without doing adequate work at their properly designated places while the health services in the rural areas suffer very seriously from absence of doctors. Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina warned such absentee doctors for their dereliction of duty time and again. However, like in all other cases of the taste of the pudding coming from eating it, the tough words from the PM will count for something only after the actual taking of the steps that would be required to ensure that the doctors do indeed feel obligated to serve in the rural areas. This is no easy task for on the one hand there are involved problems of psychology and character and, on the other, the doctors can point to the disincentives that keep them away from rural areas. The solution lies in psychologically curing the doctors of their inordinate fascination for working in urban areas as much as also providing them with further incentives, as far as would be truly justified, to have peace of mind to serve with dedication in the rural areas. But the greatest stress will have to be put on strict enforcement of rules and regulations to make it very difficult for them to go on so unconscientiously avoiding their duties in rural areas. The nation makes much sacrifice to produce a doctor with highly subsidised medical education and then further pays not unreasonably for his or her upkeep with salaries and other facilities. In return, the nation should duly expect to get his or her sincere service. If the same is not honestly discharged, then the nation should have the right to apply coercion so that the same is discharged. The problems complained by the doctors may not be ignored and steps may be taken to solve them . But the imperative is keeping up consistent pressure on them as per their service rules to do their bounden duties at their work stations. From 2009, government introduced the so called user fees in the publicly run medical and health care system. Under 23 categories, user fees were introduced for 470 types of services in the public hospitals. The public medical care institutions were obliged, at least in theory, to extend free medical services or at nominal costs till the introduction of this fee. But in the backdrop of such free and nominal payments leading to poor or even no treatment of patients, it was decided that users' fees would be applied to bring about positive changes through users bearing a part of the real costs of treatment. This would free the government somewhat from paying huge subsidies ineffectively to the medical sector while enabling better treatment with patients bearing a part of their costs. But the real experience after introduction of the users' fees is that patients' treatment costs, on average, have increased compared to the time when they were treated for free or at nominal costs. Thus, it requires a rethink whether the user fee system should be given up with restoration of the previous system of free treatment or treatment at nominal costs only. If it is decided to go back to the older system, then it must be ensured that the free system or nominal payment system do not make the patients suffer like in the past due to corruption and neglect. The challenge would be to make the free or nominal payment system free from corruption and to make it work ridding inefficiencies. Then, it could prove to be a blessing. A major health sector priority ought to be revamping the family planning programme by bringing all or nearly all fertile couples under it at the earliest. It is shocking that 45 per cent of potential couples from the standpoint of procreation abilities, remain unserved by the family planning programme. They are also bypassed by health and nutrition programmes. This neglect must be overcome with targeted policies. Time-bound targets must be pursued also in the areas of sanitation and helping people to avoid arsenic poisoning. Meanwhile people, specially common people, are happy to see that the big general public hospitals in the cities such as the DhakaMedicalCollegeHospital, are running with some efficiency and a sense of a duty of care compared to the past. Let us hope that this trend would continue and be further improved. to prepare itself for a Vuca world It would do well for us all to reflect on the lives and prospects of the children born in Bangladesh in 2019. What will the country be like by the time they reach the age 18 and are on the threshold of entering high education? Certainly, many jobs that exist now will have been made obsolete by then due to increased automation and the further development in respect of the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The world will be ever more interconnected, and the skillsets required for a future world of work and leisure will be very different. Whilst none of us can know the precise nature of how things will be in two decades time, we can appreciate that certain changes and trends that are already underway are likely to continue. The big question will be how prepared and agile is the education sector, especially the higher education sector, to rise to and meet the challenges and opportunities that the short to medium term future will bring? Continued population growth means that demand for higher education, both public and private, is projected to increase year on year. On the current rate of growth Bangladesh is set to have a population of 194.5 million by 2037 (Source: www.populationpyramid.net/ bangladesh/2037/). Such growth will impact on all aspects of education and require considerable foresight planning, especially when it comes to investing in infrastructure, staff and facilities. On the strength of current data available the percentage of female students is likely to increase, and thus greater thought needs to be given to meeting their needs and requirements. As things stand the country will require additional universities and colleges, some of these to be specialist subject providers with other institutions offering a broader range of practical and technical subjects. In addition, the higher education sector will need to embrace the potential to increase stakeholder engagement through the offering of Massively Open Online Courses (MOOCs), with these being offered in Bangla, but particularly in English in order to ensure that the workforce has maximum flexibility when it comes to employment opportunities at home OOne year ago, BlackRock chairman and chief executive officer Larry Fink wrote a letter to 500 CEOs asking them to rethink their sense of purpose. "To prosper over time," he wrote, "every company must not only deliver financial performance, but also show how it makes a positive contribution to society." Fink argued that companies' excessive short-term focus was hurting their ability to create more value in the long run. Some prominent politicians - including US Senator Elizabeth Warren and (until Brexit torpedoed her policy agenda) British Prime Minister Theresa May - have also advocated a more inclusive and less predatory form of capitalism. But despite these calls to action, little has changed. The financial sector remains self-obsessed and invests mostly in other parts of finance, insurance and real estate. Companies also are overly financialized, spending more on share buybacks and dividends than on human capital, machinery, and research and development. The financial sector remains selfobsessed and invests mostly in other parts of finance, insurance and real estate. Companies also are overly financialized, spending more on share buybacks and dividends than on human capital, machinery, and research and development And the buyback mania is getting worse, including at companies like Apple, where falling innovation is not unrelated to the failure to reinvest. Many businesses talk soothingly about corporate social responsibility, impact, and social purpose, but very few put these at the core of their operations. Fink claimed that companies should instead focus on a broader group of stakeholders: "shareholders, employees, customers, and the communities in which they operate." But this would require corporate governance structures that maximize Dr P r Datta and Mark t. JonES and abroad. There is an impression in some quarters that some higher education providers in Bangladesh are stuck in a 1980's time warp. Students are lectured at, learning is by rote, and there is little or no scope or encouragement to develop independent thought. As if this were not alarming enough, academics are often denied opportunities to engage in additional training and professional development and rarely if ever undertake new research that is put in the public domain. Such institutions have become academic backwaters that are uninspiring, dull and not fit for purpose. It is thus imperative that the Government shows leadership to ensure that all public and private providers are dynamic, innovative and accountable. The establishment of a Bangladesh Higher Education Research Council would be an excellent way to help maintain academic rigor and quality control across the sector. This is doubly important as the entire sector would benefit from being benchmarked against international competitors. Central to any development will be the role of leadership, something that takes on an added significance when we consider that we are living in a VUCA world, one that is Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. Here are some ideas of how to respond: * Volatile/Volatility - Focus on preparedness, foresight planning and risk mitigation. * Uncertain/Uncertainty - Invest in information, collect it, interpret it and share it. * Complex/Complexity - Undertake appropriate restructuring, invest in new resources and hire/utilise specialists where appropriate * Ambiguous/Ambiguity - Examine and explore cause and effect. Seek to learn lessons and adapt accordingly. Rather than retreating into the comfort of the familiar there needs to be a concerted effort to embrace change and ensure that Quality Assurance mechanism are in place to help focus minds. Far greater on the current rate of growth Bangladesh is set to have a population of 194.5 million by 2037 (Source: www.populationpyramid.net/bangladesh/2037/). Such growth will impact on all aspects of education and require considerable foresight planning, especially when it comes to investing in infrastructure, staff and facilities. on the strength of current data available the percentage of female students is likely to increase, and thus greater thought needs to be given to meeting their needs and requirements. stakeholder value, not shareholder value - and neither Fink nor other business luminaries seem willing to go down this "Scandinavian" path. Real change means putting purpose at the center of how value is defined by firms, governments, and the economic theory that informs policymakers. As I argue in my new book, Adam Smith and Karl Marx made the objective conditions of production - the division of labor, machinery, and capital-labor relations - central to their understanding of value. In neoclassical economics, however, value is merely a function of exchange. Only what has a price is valuable, and "collective" effort is omitted, because only individual decisions matter. Even wages are seen as outcomes of people's utilitymaximizing choices between leisure and work. In the neoclassical view, governments at best redistribute value created elsewhere. Furthermore, gross domestic product doesn't account for the value of essential public services such as health care and education. It does, though, account for their costs (teachers' salaries, for example), so that civil servants cannot claim to be as "productive" as former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein in 2009 infamously suggested his employees were. Unsurprisingly, public officials, cognizance should be taken of Lean Management Systems, with a view to stakeholder engagement, efficiency and effectiveness. Over the coming years technology will revolutionise the world of study, work and leisure. Rather than being fearful of such change every effort needs to be made to come to terms with and embrace change. Sadly, many in the most senior roles find new technology totally alien and thus have yet to grasp the enormity of the change that is already underway. For institutions to survive and thrive in a global market they will need to ensure that they hire and train staff at all levels to be technology savvy and ever ready to make the most of the potential that new developments will bring. Change is happening now, and it will not wait for those would rather pretend that it is not happening. The best institutions invest money in research and development, and as innovators they ensure generous Let's get real about purpose Mariana Mazzucato long accused of "crowding out" business, have internalized the belief that they should do no more than fix market failures. Yet the public organizations that put a man on the moon and invented the Internet did more than just correct market failures. They had ambition, a purpose, and a mission. To get real about purpose, we need to recognize that value is created collectively and build more symbiotic partnerships between public and private institutions and civil society. In doing so, we must address three questions: what value to create, how to evaluate the impact, and how to share the rewards. Paul Polman, the departing CEO of Similarly, companies evaluating their social impact should ditch fuzzy objectives and focus on concrete steps to help solve problems. Financial institutions would no longer evaluate their loans on the basis of categories of firms or countries, but rather in terms of activities that help fulfill specific missions - such as removing plastic from the ocean or creating more sustainable cities. Unilever, has rightly tried to focus companies on creating value in line with substantial targets, especially the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Of course, neither the public nor the private sector alone can meet all 169 specific targets underpinning the SDGs. But governments can use the goals to create initiatives that require investment and innovation from many public, private, and civilsociety organizations. I advocated this approach in a report that has become a key part of the European Commission's Horizon program. Similarly, companies evaluating their social impact should ditch fuzzy objectives and focus on concrete steps to help solve problems. funding for physical spaces that foster and support creativity. A proven sign of a forward-thinking HE institution is one that forges long-term partnerships with industry. Knowledge transfer is very much the name of the game and this will require far less politics and far more openness and interaction. If Bangladesh is going to be able to ensure that it has a highly skilled, intelligent and flexible workforce it will need to invest heavily in literacy across the board and make STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) Education a priority. Many course programmes and portfolios will require changing, and in some cases a radical overhaul with a view to adapting to changing priorities and expectations. In order to bring about such change those in leadership and management roles will be required to be far more outward looking and willing to benchmark their institutions against the best in the world. Global Higher Education League Tables matter and as ever complacency and self-importance must be avoided at all cost. So, let us return to the children born this year. The education that they receive in the next few years will shape their ability to make the most of the options available to them in latter life. New universities and campuses do not just happen overnight, they require thought, planning and investment over the coming years. Tranches of research funding need to be budgeted for and will staff require on-going training. The decisions and action (or inaction) taken over the next five to ten years will directly impact upon those children who will be 18 by the year 2037. Bangladesh needs to ensure that its entire HE is ready, willing and able to shape a future for the adults of tomorrow and beyond. Dr P R Datta FCIM, FCMI Executive Chair, Academy of Business & Retail Management, UK Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Business and Retail Management Research, UK Mark T. Jones BA (Hons), FCILN Consultant Futurist Editor-in-Chief - International Journal of Higher Education Management, UK Financial institutions would no longer evaluate their loans on the basis of categories of firms or countries, but rather in terms of activities that help fulfill specific missions - such as removing plastic from the ocean or creating more sustainable cities. Likewise, governments should give fewer handouts to companies and instead rely more on procurement and prize schemes to nurture corporate innovations aimed at achieving the SDGs. In other words, there should be less picking winners and more picking the willing. Finally, companies must share the rewards as well as the risks of creating value. Business has benefited enormously from public investment not only in education, research, and basic infrastructure, but also in technologies like those powering today's smartphones. Governments could, therefore, retain more of the upside returns to cover the downside losses that risk-taking involves. For example, they could take equity stakes in companies like Tesla, which received a similar amount of support as the failed company Solyndra, or generate non-monetary returns by setting conditions on the prices of goods (such as medicines) that receive heavy public investments, and on knowledge governance (to ensure that the patent system is not abused). Similarly, conditions on reinvesting corporate profits would reduce cash hoarding and sharebuybacks. To cite one famous example, when Bell Labs was formed, monopolies like AT&T were pressured to reinvest their profits. That courage has been lost. A more purposeful capitalism requires more than just letters, speeches and goodwill gestures. Business, government, and civil society must act together, courageously, to ensure that their walk is as good as their talk. Source : Asia times
STRATEGIC ISSUES FRIDAY, MARCH 1, 2019 5 As Tokyo rearms, what are the politics of military power in Japan? Photo: Mosiase The politics around Japan's military power catherine Putz How does Japan balance its avowedly pacifist constitution and its technologically sophisticated and growing Self-Defense Forces against rising regional threats? How do Japan's neighbors, South Korea and China, in particular, view the rearming of Japan? And while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is labeled a right-wing nationalist, what do the Japanese people think about shifting security trends and the future of the island's defense? Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of the upcoming book Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power, offers answers to some of these questions. Smith emphasizes that in developing its military capabilities Japan is responding to a complex regional situation and an uncertain future. Early on, Japan's political leaders established that the right of self-defense was inherent in the UN Charter and thus Japan, too, would be able to develop the capability to defend itself. This was established in How far the Chinese mega-project BRI trekked so far. Photo: Collected Let's examine the progress of China's Belt and Road Prashanth Parameswaran With just a few weeks more to go until the next Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit China, expected in April, it is clear that the BRI continues to suffer some serious setbacks even as Beijing continues to try to lock in additional wins. Yet at the same time, as BRI continues to develop in the lead up to and after the upcoming summit, one should be wary of overestimating or misreading any sort of "pushback" against BRI. Among other things, an overly narrow focus on BRI "pushback" can distort the wide range of responses we have seen thus far from regional states; misread the motivations at play inherent in readjustments or reconsiderations countries may make along the way; and place the emphasis too much on just temporary pushbacks rather than the structural and strategic changes that need to be made to contend with how regional states can better manage the opportunities and challenges of economically engaging China. First, though the focus is often on BRI "pushback," that is in fact just one position within a range of very complex responses by countries ranging from support to opposition that vary on different counts including level of intensity. Emerging responses from countries like Japan, which has actively offered alternatives to China's BRI even as it engages with it; or Myanmar, where Beijing has worked tirelessly with the government in Naypyidaw to make progress on parts of the China- Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) in spite of earlier concerns, offer cautionary notes about oversimplistically characterizing responses to such a large scale initiative that involves so many different players. This is an important point to keep in mind. A range of factors including BRI's still amorphous shape - where old projects are at times being grandfathered in to seem like new developments and commitments by countries can be in the form of rhetorical support and symbolic MOUs rather than substantive cooperation actually followed through - means that responses will tend to be more complex and nuanced than a simple "pushback" or "embrace." A myopic focus on just the more extreme manifestations of the pushback aspect can distort the region's response and underestimate the BRI's longer-term potential as a tool of Chinese statecraft. Second, to the extent that there is "pushback," the motivations for this subset of responses are often quite diverse, with some being more project-specific or domestic-focused rather than the geopolitical imperatives often attributed to them. There ought to be a clear distinction made, for instance, between project-specific readjustments from Pakistan with respect to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); recalibration with a change in government in Malaysia following the perceived excesses under former Prime Minister Najib Razak; and the caution of a more strategic and lasting kind shown by Vietnam which continues to keep BRI at a distance. The differences in motivations here, to the extent they can be discerned, is important. In addition to more correctly representing the myriad drivers behind why certain the Diet committee that reviewed the draft of the U.S. Occupation authorities, and so the postwar debate that followed after Japan regained sovereignty in 1952 was how to interpret what was necessary for self-defense. Diet debate over the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) law in 1954 became the first place this was deliberated, and many of the basic issues Japanese still consider were raised then. But over time, as the SDF developed the capability to take over territorial defense missions from U.S. forces, debate blossomed into what sorts of things should define the military capability of the SDF. Over time, these debates shifted focus from what kinds of weapons were acceptable to what kind of missions the SDF could perform, and then to the possibility of SDF participation in international coalitions in the post-Cold War era (such as UN Peacekeeping Operations and post-9/11 U.S. coalitions in the Indian Ocean and now in the South China Sea). I trace this trajectory of deliberations in Japan Rearmed to show just how far Japan has come in thinking about the utility of its military as a partner in regional and global security. countries are responding the way they do, they can also shed better light on the extent to which we can expect to see continuity and change in regional responses amid various developments, including shifting domestic politics as well as Beijing's own ongoing efforts to refashion some of its BRI projects in countries that can be expected to continue after the April summit. Third, though countries may push back against BRI itself for now, it is still unclear whether this will also lead them to make the necessary changes to better manage such issues in the future and also limiting their broader economic relationship with Beijing as some may hope or assume. Though experiences such as the "debt traps" epitomized by Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port or the"dual use" dilemma at play it places such as Cambodia have emerged as cautionary tales for governments related to BRI, in many cases governments are still grappling with how to address these challenges and debates and discussions about short-, medium-, and long-term steps. As they are doing so, they are also continuing to engage Beijing beyond the BRI, including through other initiatives that are more welcome relatively speaking such as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). This point warrants careful attention in the months and years ahead. For all the focus on China, the concerns at play within BRI are also the product of factors evident in the countries Beijing is operating in as well, including a lack of transparency and accountability with respect to how project decisions are made, the perceived lack of alternatives in advancing economic development including infrastructure, and ongoing conversations about how to manage the opportunities and challenges of economic engagement with Beijing, including in some cases restrictions in certain areas such as telecommunications. Until these structural issues are addressed, individual projects may come under scrutiny, but the systemic risks will continue to remain and are likely to manifest in different ways. All this is not to say that we ought to dismiss or underestimate the pushback we have seen with respect to BRI so far, which is real. The point, rather, is that we should avoid being carried away by headlines narrowly focused on "pushback" against the BRI and continue to pay attention to the complex decisions, motives, and longer-term adjustments being made by regional states as well as China in the initiative as well as in its wider economic engagement. That broader perspective can not only provide a better understanding of how countries respond to BRI, but also potentially help shape these very calculations over time. As we see the focus on BRI ramp up ahead of the next BRI summit in China, that is worth keeping in mind. Tension looms in South Asia sudha ramachandran On February 26, the Indian Air Force (IAF) carried out an aerial strike on a Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terror training camp in Balakot in Pakistan's Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa province. Unlike in September 2016, when Special Forces of the Indian Army carried out so-called surgical strikes on terrorist launch-pads near the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) - the LoC is the de-facto line that divides the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) into POK and the Indian state of J&K - this time IAF jets went far into Pakistani airspace to destroy one of JeM's main training camps. Tuesday's strikes are the first to be launched deep into Pakistan territory since the 1971 India-Pakistan War. Even during the 1999 confrontation at Kargil, Indian fighter jets did not cross the LoC. The IAF's assault on the Balakot camp is therefore significant. An assault on JeM training camps was expected. Less than two weeks ago, a suicide bombing by JeM in Pulwama in J&K claimed the lives of more than 40 paramilitary personnel. The attack triggered a wave of anger and outrage across India, with many calling on India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government to give Pakistan a "befitting response." Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also been promising to avenge the death of the security forces at Pulwama. With Indians scheduled to vote in general elections in April and May, the BJP, a right-wing party which espouses a muscular nationalism, was under pressure to respond militarily. The IAF strikes on the JeM training camp was the result. Pakistan-based JeM is labeled a terrorist group in India and India has been trying to get the United Nations Security Council to blacklist JeM's founder-leader, Masood Azhar. However, it hasn't succeeded in this endeavor, with China blocking its efforts. Between 1994 and 1999, Azhar was jailed in India for his terrorist activities in the Kashmir Valley. Then in December 1999, India freed him in exchange for the safe return of passengers on board a hijacked Indian Airlines aircraft. In Pakistan, Azhar founded JeM with generous support from Pakistan's Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI) and since then the group has moved from strength to strength and carried out several attacks in India, including an attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 - an incident that brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war in 2002 - and on an IAF base at Pathankot in January 2016. Tuesday's IAF airstrike is reported to have destroyed a JeM training camp where hundreds of terrorists were staying. Among those reportedly killed in the strike was Azhar's brother-in-law, Yousuf Azhar, who masterminded the 1999 airplane hijacking. India claims that the air strikes eliminated a significant number of JeM fighters. But what has it achieved beyond that? The strikes delivered a "robust" message, an editorial in The Hindu, an influential English daily said. Certainly, the strike signaled to Pakistan that India will not hesitate to use force if it continues to support terrorist attacks targeting India. By targeting a terrorist camp, India has indicated also that it "doesn't want to go beyond [destroying Pakistan's] terror infrastructure," security analyst Uday Bhaskar has observed. However, Tuesday's strikes "are unlikely to have any enduring impact on the long term trajectory of Pakistan-backed terrorism," Ajai Sahni, counter-terrorism expert and Executive Director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi, told The Diplomat. The 2016 surgical strike did not reduce terrorist attacks in India. Rather it resulted in "an escalation of terrorism in J&K and increased firing" by Pakistan along the LoC, which resulted in scores of Indian soldiers and civilians losing their lives. It did serve the BJP's agenda well, however, Sahni says. And "Surgical Strikes 2.0," as India's recent strikes are being referred to "can be expected to do precisely this," he added. The strikes are likely to Supporters wait for the start of a campaign rally of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Photo: Heng Sinith provide a shot in the arm to the BJP's electoral chances in the upcoming general elections. "In the immediate future, the impact [of the strikes] will probably be escalatory," Sahni said, adding that the Pakistani leadership is under pressure "as great as the pressure" that the Modi government was under to respond to the Pulwama attack. Pakistan's leadership is under pressure to respond to India's air strikes "immediately and visibly." In the coming days, Pakistan can be expected to further escalate cross-border firing and carry out terror attacks in J&K as well as other parts of India, Sahni said. The conflict is already escalating. Can Australia boom with a proactive immigration policy? Grant wyeth In recent decades the conventional narrative of global population has been one of continued growth and the stresses that this will place on the planet's resources. This narrative has been facilitated by consistent studies from the United Nations that predict that the world's population will rise from its present 7.7 billion to 11.2 billion by 2100. However a new book by the Globe and Mail's writer-at-large, John Ibbitson, and social researcher Darrell Brooker has questioned this narrative and the UN modeling that produced its global population boom forecasts. Instead, they argue, the world's population will top out just before reaching 9 billion people, before beginning to decline. The book - Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline - argues that the UN's model for predicting birthrates is too conservative, focusing only on the traditional factors of fertility, mobility, and mortality. These are factors have worked well for forecasts in the past, but fail to account for current trends that are producing a significant decline in birth rates worldwide. Brooker and Ibbitson argue that the UN is missing two current revolutions that are taking place across the world. The first is the rapid rise of urbanization, both in developed and developing countries. Life in urban areas is becoming increasingly advantageous and this phenomenon is exponential. The more people move to urban areas the more advantageous it is for others to do likewise. This has a considerable effect on population - in rural areas children are an important extra set of hands, but in urban areas children are more an extra mouth to feed, therefore reducing the incentive to have too many. The other phenomenon (which is facilitated by the first) is the increase in female education and female social power. In the book, the authors note that everywhere they visited for their research - whether it was wealthy Western cities, poor rural areas, or urban slums in developing countries - when they asked women how many children they would prefer to have if given the choice, the response was overwhelmingly only one or two. And across the world the ability for women to make this choice for themselves is becoming a new (and long overdue) social norm. This phenomenon is not only driven by access to formal education, but the informal education derived from urban social networks and the now ubiquitous access to smartphones that provide insights and aspirations for women beyond their local environments. Confirming the authors' thesis, a report by medical journal The Lancet from November 2018 (a study published after their book was written) has demonstrated that there is now a significant decline in global birth rates. While the UN's recent data for India states that it has a current birth rate of 2.4 children per woman, The Lancet puts India's birth rate at 2.1. For a population the size of India that discrepancy is a considerable number of people (or lack thereof). India is now at the replacement level, and is joined there by other large countries such as Bangladesh, Iran, Brazil, and the Philippines. These countries are predicted to soon move to being below replacement level, which is where most of the developed countries in the West find themselves. Most significantly, this is also where China finds itself. The authors predict China could halve its population by the end of the century, becoming older and smaller before it reaches the wealth of the West, with considerable geopolitical ramifications. If the analysis of the book proves correct, then this presents an enormous opportunity for an immigrant accepting country like Australia. With Europe turning inward, and the United States potentially doing the same, the number of countries that are actively seeking to enhance their numbers through immigration are actually very few. Rather than see its relative power decline in relation to more populous countries in its neighborhood as has been predicted, Australia should be able to enhance its current economic, defense, and cultural capabilities to either preserve its influence, or even considerably increase it - as long as it is able to maintain (or boost) its current levels of immigration, and generate public acceptance of its migration program. Yet unlike a comparable country such as Canada, Australia doesn't have a strong public narrative advocating and explaining the benefits of immigration. The political class simply enacted a policy of substantial rates of immigration and then sat back and hoped that the public would adjust on its own. A declining global population will make the maintenance of Australia's immigration program the country's primary strategic asset. Photo : Jamie Davies
Page 1 and 2: FriDaY DhaKa: March 8, 2019; Falgun
Page 3: METRO FRIDAY, MARCh 8, 2019 3 Dalit
Page 7 and 8: INTERNATIONAL FRIdAy, MARCh 8, 2019
Page 9 and 10: SPORTS FRIDAy, MARCh 8, 2019 9 Manc
Page 11 and 12: MISCELLANEOUS FrIDAY, MArCh 8, 2019

08-03-2019

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?