Economic Recovery Growth Plan (ERGP) 2017-2020

Table 2.1: Three growth scenarios
Scenario 1: Do nothing
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP growth (in per cent) -0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.5
Per capita GDP (USD) 1315 1935 2,532 2,517
Unemployment per cent 19.2 23.7 26.17 31.3
Net job creation (million)
Scenario 2: Introduce basic macroeconomic reforms
- - - -
GDP growth (in per cent) 0.6 1.6 3.2 3.8
Per capita GDP (USD)
1634 2138 2,673 2,764
Unemployment per cent
18.5 21.3 23.9 25.0
Net job creation (million)
0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3
Scenario 3: Implement the ERGP
GDP growth (in per cent) 2.2 4.8 4.5 7.0
Per capita GDP (USD)
Unemployment per cent
Net job creation (million)
Source: MBNP and NBS
2,542 2640 2,731 2,854
16.32 14.51 12.90 11.23
1.5 3.8 4.3 5.1
Scenario 3 is the only viable option if Nigeria is to restore its economy to a path of sustainable and
inclusive growth, create sufficient jobs to reduce unemployment and poverty, improve social inclusion,
and remain on course to achieve international development targets, such as the UN SDGs.
2.2 MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
Table 2.2 summarizes the projected macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2020 under Scenario 3. To
achieve the growth aspirations, the first requirement is a stable macroeconomic environment with low
inflation, stable exchange rates and sustainable fiscal and external balances. This requires that the four
main macroeconomic elements– the real sector, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and the external sector
(balance of payments)– reflect the Plan and are all aligned and internally consistent.
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