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bcma
Key driver:
Russian flows
Russian import volumes by key entry routes
Ukraine key swing route.
• Short term:
strategic/commercial
/logistical
constraints on
increasing flows
• Long Term:
not in Gazprom’s
interest to have TTF
above LRMC of new
LNG (~ 8 $/mmbtu)
290
270
250
230
210
Northern
routes now
constrained.
Nordstream
2 alleviates
constraints.
European Autumn Gas Conference Nov 2018
190
170
150
2019 2020 2021 2022
Current flows Ukraine route TAP Nordstream 2 - 1 Nordstream 2 - 2
Source: Timera Energy
5
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