2020 Q2 In Review - Integrity Wealth Advisors, Ventura, CA
The National Bureau of Economic Research has officially declared a recession. It’s Business Cycle Dating Committee has confirmed that the expansion that began in June 2009 ended in February 2020. This latest expansion lasted 128 months and was the longest in U.S. history, right behind the previous record of 120 months from March of 1991 to March of 2001. First Quarter GDP contracted by 5%, the largest contraction since the great recession. The overall economic downturn caused by COVID-19 is the sharpest we have seen since the Great Depression, but it also may likely be one of the shortest we have ever seen.... Read more inside.
The National Bureau of Economic Research has officially declared a recession. It’s Business Cycle Dating Committee has confirmed that the expansion that began in June 2009 ended in February 2020. This latest expansion lasted 128 months and was the longest in U.S. history, right behind the previous record of 120 months from March of 1991 to March of 2001. First Quarter GDP contracted by 5%, the largest contraction since the great recession. The overall economic downturn caused by COVID-19 is the sharpest we have seen since the Great Depression, but it also may likely be one of the shortest we have ever seen.... Read more inside.
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<strong>2020</strong><br />
<strong>Q2</strong><br />
IN REVIEW<br />
PUTTING THINGS INTO PERSPECTIVE<br />
The M2 measure of money (a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money) is up 25%<br />
year over year, one of the fastest paces we have ever seen. With this deluge of new money and the improvement in economic data we feel equity<br />
markets should continue to rise.<br />
However, many continue to feel as if the world is falling apart, and we are certainly dealing with many issues that are causing uncertainty.<br />
However, it’s important to remember history. <strong>In</strong> the Civil War, the US lost 620,000 men, 2% of the population, the equivalent of more than 6 million<br />
people today. World War I, World War II and the Spanish Flu were devastating. Yet, in every case, the United States continued to prosper.<br />
Many believe that this time will be different, but we think that humans are resilient and that things will get back to normal. It may not happen<br />
straightaway, but we believe it will happen. Competition between states, businesses and everyday people to grow and enjoy life will push<br />
everyone forward. Just like after 9/11, people will fly again. They already are. They will go to restaurants again, and sporting events and theaters.<br />
But it will take time.<br />
We believe the first few months will initially look like a V recovery, but then things will grow more slowly unless we get a widely distributed<br />
vaccine. We may not see 4% or lower unemployment rates again until late 2022 or 2023, possibly even longer. But day after day, week after week,<br />
month after month, advancement will be made. We remain hopeful. We have history on our side.<br />
Record levels of stimulus, sustained low interest rates and ongoing low inflation create a supportive environment for stock market returns<br />
going forward. We will continue to act in the best interets of our clients, serving as fiduciaries. Please feel free to reach out to any of us with any<br />
questions or concerns.<br />
Warm Regards,<br />
Stephen H. Wagner, CFP ®<br />
<strong>In</strong>vestment Committee Chair<br />
info@wagnerfinancial.com<br />
"We remain hopeful.<br />
We have history on our side."
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