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cover story WHITHER HERD IMMUNITY? India’s seroprevalence findings suggest that the country is nowhere close to achieving herd immunity 26 / FUTURE MEDICINE / November 2020
S HARACHAND They were supposed to be further proof that India is inching closer towards herd immunity against COVID-19, but the results of India’s latest serosurveys have turned out to be anything but. Serosurveillance, considered the gold standard for measuring population immunity arising out of past infection or vaccination, can provide crucial insights into progression of a pandemic, its current prevalence level and its likely trajectory for the future. Many were, therefore, hoping that the large number of serosurveys conducted in various parts of India in the August-September period would reveal how close the country is towards achieving herd immunity. A distant dream? Data from the most recent nationwide survey carried out by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) show that only a fraction of the general population is seropositive for the SARS-CoV-2 infection. At 7%, the figure fell way below the threshold needed for reaching herd immunity. According to most experts, viral transmission does not slow down until at least November 2020 / FUTURE MEDICINE / 27
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