Code

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1 *==========
2
3 /* Sources
4 (a) Forecast and errors:
5 NOV. 3, 2020
6 Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A
Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
7 By Nate Silver
8 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-electio
n-forecast/
9 */
10
11 clear
12
13 set obs 17
14
15 gen state = ""
16
17 replace state = "New Hampshire" if _n==1
18 replace state = "Minnesota" if _n==2
19 replace state = "Wisconsin" if _n==3
20 replace state = "Michigan" if _n==4
21 replace state = "Nevada" if _n==5
22 replace state = "Pennsylvania" if _n==6
23 replace state = "Arizona" if _n==7
24 replace state = "Florida" if _n==8
25 replace state = "North Carolina" if _n==9
26 replace state = "Georgia" if _n==10
27 replace state = "Ohio" if _n==11
28 replace state = "Iowa" if _n==12
29 replace state = "Texas" if _n==13
30 replace state = "Montana" if _n==14
31 replace state = "South Carolina" if _n==15
32 replace state = "Alaska" if _n==16
33 replace state = "Missouri" if _n==17
34
35 * Forecast based on polls (538) vs Preliminary results
36 gen f538_for = .
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36 gen f538_for = .
37 gen f538_Berr = .
38 gen f538_Rerr = .
39
40 ** "New Hampshire"
41 replace f538_for = 10.6 if _n==1
42 replace f538_Berr = 14.5 if _n==1
43 replace f538_Rerr = 6.7 if _n==1
44
45 ** "Minnesota"
46 replace f538_for = 9.1 if _n==2
47 replace f538_Berr = 12.1 if _n==2
48 replace f538_Rerr = 8.0 if _n==2
49
50 ** "Wisconsin"
51 replace f538_for = 8.3 if _n==3
52 replace f538_Berr = 11.6 if _n==3
53 replace f538_Rerr = 5.1 if _n==3
54
55 ** "Michigan"
56 replace f538_for = 8.0 if _n==4
57 replace f538_Berr = 11.2 if _n==4
58 replace f538_Rerr = 4.9
59
60 ** "Nevada"
61 replace f538_for = 6.1 if _n==5
62 replace f538_Berr = 9.5 if _n==5
63 replace f538_Rerr = 2.8 if _n==5
64
65 ** "Pennsylvania"
66 replace f538_for = 4.7 if _n==6
67 replace f538_Berr = 7.7 if _n==6
68 replace f538_Rerr = 1.7 if _n==6
69
70 ** "Arizona"
71 replace f538_for = 2.6 if _n==7
72 replace f538_Berr = 5.8 if _n==7
73 replace f538_Rerr = -0.7 if _n==7
74
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74
75 ** "Florida"
76 replace f538_for = 2.5 if _n==8
77 replace f538_Berr = 5.7 if _n==8
78 replace f538_Rerr = -0.7 if _n==8
79
80 ** "North Carolina"
81 replace f538_for = 1.8 if _n==9
82 replace f538_Berr = 4.7 if _n==9
83 replace f538_Rerr = -1.1 if _n==9
84
85 ** "Georgia"
86 replace f538_for = 1 if _n==10
87 replace f538_Berr = 3.6 if _n==10
88 replace f538_Rerr = -1.6 if _n==10
89
90 ** "Ohio"
91 replace f538_for = -0.6 if _n==11
92 replace f538_Berr = 2.5 if _n==11
93 replace f538_Rerr = -3.7 if _n==11
94
95 ** "Iowa"
96 replace f538_for = -1.5 if _n==12
97 replace f538_Berr = 2 if _n==12
98 replace f538_Rerr = -5 if _n==12
99
100 ** "Texas"
101 replace f538_for = -1.5 if _n==13
102 replace f538_Berr = 1.7 if _n==13
103 replace f538_Rerr = -4.7 if _n==13
104
105 ** "Montana"
106 replace f538_for = -6.4 if _n==14
107 replace f538_Berr = -3.3 if _n==14
108 replace f538_Rerr = -9.5 if _n==14
109
110 ** "South Carolina"
111 replace f538_for = -7.5 if _n==15
112 replace f538_Berr = -4.8 if _n==15
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112 replace f538_Berr = -4.8 if _n==15
113 replace f538_Rerr = -10.2 if _n==15
114
115 ** "Alaska"
116 replace f538_for = -8.5 if _n==16
117 replace f538_Berr = -5.3 if _n==16
118 replace f538_Rerr = -11.7 if _n==16
119
120 ** "Missouri"
121 replace f538_for = -9.4 if _n==17
122 replace f538_Berr = -6.3 if _n==17
123 replace f538_Rerr = -12.5 if _n==17
124
125
126
127 *====
128
129 gen part_res_b = .
130 gen part_res_t = .
131 gen more_99per = 0
132
133 ** "New Hampshire"
134 replace part_res_b = 52.9 if _n==1
135 replace part_res_t = 45.5 if _n==1
136 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==1
137
138 ** "Minnesota"
139 replace part_res_b = 52.6 if _n==2
140 replace part_res_t = 45.4 if _n==2
141 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==2
142
143 ** "Wisconsin"
144 replace part_res_b = 49.6 if _n==3
145 replace part_res_t = 48.9 if _n==3
146 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==3
147
148 ** "Michigan"
149 replace part_res_b = 50.6 if _n==4
150 replace part_res_t = 47.8 if _n==4
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150 replace part_res_t = 47.8 if _n==4
151 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==4
152
153 ** "Nevada"
154 replace part_res_b = 50.1 if _n==5
155 replace part_res_t = 47.7 if _n==5
156 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==5
157
158 ** "Pennsylvania"
159 replace part_res_b = 50.0 if _n==6
160 replace part_res_t = 48.8 if _n==6
161 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==6
162
163 ** "Arizona"
164 replace part_res_b = 49.4 if _n==7
165 replace part_res_t = 49.1 if _n==7
166 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==7
167
168 ** "Florida"
169 replace part_res_b = 47.9 if _n==8
170 replace part_res_t = 51.2 if _n==8
171 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==8
172
173 ** "North Carolina"
174 replace part_res_b = 48.7 if _n==9
175 replace part_res_t = 50.1 if _n==9
176 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==9
177
178 ** "Georgia"
179 replace part_res_b = 49.5 if _n==10
180 replace part_res_t = 49.3 if _n==10
181 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==10
182
183 ** "Ohio"
184 replace part_res_b = 45.3 if _n==11
185 replace part_res_t = 53.3 if _n==11
186 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==11
187
188 ** "Iowa"
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188 ** "Iowa"
189 replace part_res_b = 45.0 if _n==12
190 replace part_res_t = 53.2 if _n==12
191 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==12
192
193 ** "Texas"
194 replace part_res_b = 46.5 if _n==13
195 replace part_res_t = 52.1 if _n==13
196 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==13
197
198 ** "Montana"
199 replace part_res_b = 40.6 if _n==14
200 replace part_res_t = 56.9 if _n==14
201 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==14
202
203
204 ** "South Carolina"
205 replace part_res_b = 43.4 if _n==15
206 replace part_res_t = 55.1 if _n==15
207 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==15
208
209
210 ** "Alaska"
211 replace part_res_b = 43.0 if _n==16
212 replace part_res_t = 53.1 if _n==16
213 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==16
214
215 ** "Missouri"
216 replace part_res_b = 41.4 if _n==17
217 replace part_res_t = 56.8 if _n==17
218 replace more_99per = 1 if _n==17
219
220
221 * Margin of victory
222
223 gen b_mvic = part_res_b-part_res_t
224
225 *===============================================================
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