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The economic crisis resulting from the pandemic has led<br />
to a significant contraction in the demand for housing—<br />
a contraction that has been much more pronounced in<br />
the second-hand market than in new-build.<br />
We have observed a trend among home buyers away from<br />
second-hand housing towards new-build, driven by the<br />
payment facilities available in this latter segment. Home<br />
buyers who buy off-plan are able to structure the purchase<br />
more advantageously and can benefit from the financing<br />
associated with developer loans. Buying off-plan also gives<br />
buyers more time to arrange the sale of their current<br />
home, probably in less stressful financial circumstances.<br />
We believe this to be the reason for the significant increase<br />
in off-plan sales of new-build properties, together with the<br />
pent-up demand generated during the lockdown.<br />
We thus expect housing transactions to decline by<br />
between 20% and 25% in 2021 compared to 2019,<br />
mainly due to a decrease in sales of second-hand<br />
properties and a drastic decline in sales of homes to<br />
foreigners.<br />
We also anticipate a decrease of 30-35% in new housing<br />
starts in 2021 compared to 2019, due to the dual effect<br />
of a contraction in solvent demand and tighter restrictions<br />
on the financing of new residential developments. This<br />
effect will be strongest in the areas most affected by the<br />
crisis, which are mainly the ones whose economy<br />
depends heavily on hospitality and tourism, as well as the<br />
ones most dependent on foreign buyers.
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